Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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Ammo dump in Nova Kakhovka just completely obliterated

https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1546794020906696705

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https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1546560077695516673

Meanwhile, for NATO members:

https://www.ft.com/content/d413576c-c4d5-4ca6-9050-58f3f8dc3c00

Those scarcities may now be impinging on the west’s ability to quartermaster Kyiv’s war effort. Total annual US production of 155mm artillery shells, for example, would last less than two weeks of combat in Ukraine, according to Alex Vershinin, a US procurement expert who says the conflict marks “the return of industrial warfare”.

Ben Wallace, the UK’s defence minister, has said western countries would struggle to wage a protracted war comparable to Russia’s assault on Ukraine as their ammunition stocks “are inadequate for the threats we face”. During a simulated war game last year, the UK’s ammunition ran out after eight days.

As for the guided multiple-launch rocket systems made by Lockheed Martin that Kyiv has pleaded for so it can launch strikes behind enemy lines, the US has dispatched about a third of its total stock of 20,000-25,000 missiles.

But it cannot readily replace these with older versions because they use banned cluster weapons in their warheads, said Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

The west has been caught with their pants at least slightly down here. European members have neglected their militaries for some time, leading to insufficient stocks for an actual war, and industrial capacity for production has shrunk. As the article says, military investment collectively is still far larger than Russia or even Rus/China together, but a lot of that has gone into advanced weapons/air force assets that aren't being used in Ukraine. Artillery and other land force stocks are insufficient and it could be a good while before replenishment occurs for some weapons.

It's at least somewhat understandable IMO, though. In relative peacetime, there isn't as much pressure to maintain huge capacity for war, particularly when NATO members know that M.A.D serves as a powerful deterrent. Still, though, to maintain an effective conventional deterrent, they need to maintain bigger stocks than this.

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It's possible Ukraine has received more than officially listed - donor countries were pretty upfront about not detailing everything they send when the aid started rolling in, so it's hard to say exactly what quantities were received for some weapons. It doesn't seem like Ukraine has received ~7,000 rockets. I agree that doesn't really match up with the number of launchers they have received, but we only have access to so much information.

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Also we have to consider the barrel life and maintenance of the artillery guns. Rifling degrades after so many thousands of rounds are poured through it, and eventually, the barrels will have to be bored out and re-lined again at the factory. With the rate at which both Russian and Ukrainian artillery arms are burning through their respective stocks of shells, I wonder what logistics are in place to re-line worn-out barrels.

As time goes on, it becomes clear that this war is going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight, where the ability to replace losses and sustain forces readily will matter more than what pre-war stocks were available.

I know Canada sent some extra barrels for this purpose. I think it was also mentioned that the last aid package from the US focused on maintenance and repair. That was how it was described by some officials, anyway, even though in the description they categorized it all as "spare parts" in addition to some recovery vehicles. So it's possible they had something like this in mind.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-leaves-ukraine-outgunned-russia-artillery-howitzers-himars-kyiv-ammunition-casualties-missiles-range-11657629663

"The West Leaves Ukraine Outgunned Against Russia"

Ukrainian officials say they need about 100 Himars. Meanwhile, a U.S. Senate source told me the tranche that included the first four Himars included fewer than 20 missiles per launcher, though a subsequent tranche included significantly more.

The ask gets bigger and bigger.

Can you blame them? They are being bombed day and night. Also, they asked for 300 a couple months ago, which wasn't really realistic, all things considered. 100 is, though, if we're OK taking from our own brigades. It's not like we haven't collectively exported that many to other countries as part of arms sales (or plan to in the near future).

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14

Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis.[20] The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces established an ammunition depot at the Kherson City Drama Theater between July 11 and July 12.[21] Russian forces are likely continuing to move ammunition depots to historic landmarks in an attempt to defend equipment and manpower from Ukrainian strikes. Satellite imagery also showed that Russian forces deployed at least six Su-25 aircraft to the Dzankoi air base in northern Crimea as of July 11, also possibly in preparation for launching airstrikes at Ukrainian units.[22] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported that Russian forces began hiding military equipment in residential buildings and confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed two ammunition depots in Melitopol in two weeks.[23] The Kherson Oblast Administration confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian command posts and one helipad in Nova Kakhovka on July 13, and social media footage showed massive explosions in the area.[24] The GUR said it observed Russian forces transporting approximately 40 wounded servicemen to Kherson City mobile hospital but did not specify if the servicemen were wounded during Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots in the city.[25]

Russians moving ammo depots into historic landmarks and residential buildings in attempt to shield them from attacks.

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M270 MLRS systems finally arriving in Ukraine. Note that these fire the same guided rockets as the HIMARS. These launchers are tracked, so they aren't quite as fast and nimble. On the upside, they can be loaded with twice as many rockets at a time as the HIMARS. If the US ever finds the resolve to provide Ukraine with the longer range ATACMS missile, the M270 would be a better launcher since only one of those missiles can fit per pod, meaning it could launch 2 at a time while HIMARS only 1.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1547965132000530434

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Good stuff. I was looking for a version of that video to link but you beat me to it!

Not sure if they are indeed transferring all their PT-91s, but if they do, that would leave them with 69 older T-72s and possibly more in storage that need repairs, but that would largely be it for Soviet/Soviet-based tanks (from Poland, anyway).

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I was reading more into tank losses and evidently Ukraine has captured more T-72 tanks from Russia than they themselves had in active service when the war started (like Russia, Ukraine has a lot more tanks in storage but they are in various stages of disrepair). So it seems like the biggest tank donors to Ukraine are Poland and Russia .

Are they training Ukrainians to use eventually use Abrams and Leopards?

I don't know about the Abrams - I would doubt it. The US didn't seem to want to supply tanks directly to Ukraine and I haven't read about any change in that policy, although they are willing and have worked out deals to backfill other countries who send their own tanks. It's also worth noting that to give Ukraine a strategically useful number of Abrams tanks could cost billions of dollars, not counting ammunition, training, support vehicles, etc. Given all the Soviet tanks other EU countries have been planning to get rid of, and Ukraine's familiarity with them, and Russia largely using many of the same variants, they really are the best fit for right now.

Also, practically speaking, it's a very heavy tank, like the Leo, and it would probably be more limited in where it can go, given that Eastern Europe's infrastructure is not quite up to NATO military spec (read more here). It also consumes a massive amount of fuel - almost twice as much as a T-72, I think. Ukraine isn't a wealthy country and they have massive shortfalls right now, as you can imagine.

I don't think the huge investments in training, logistics, fuel and other considerations would be worth it right now. At any rate, Ukraine doesn't seem to be clamoring for them, either, afaik.

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I'm not entirely sure how these soldiers might be held accountable even if they are identified, because Russia is not going to cooperate. Maybe some sort of large bounty and offer of amnesty for any Russian soldier(s) who somehow help identified war criminals get captured? A large cash reward and the ability to move to Europe or America (since Russia would probably imprison them) seems ideal for otherwise impoverished Russian soldiers who might not even want to be there to begin with. Then again, those people may be war criminals themselves.

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The UK is providing an additional 50,000 rounds of 152mm Soviet artillery ammunition it has sourced, and L119 light howitzers, but as Ukr. defense official Oleksiy Danilov stated recently, available stocks of this ammunition type are nearly (or already) exhausted, aside from whatever that single factory in Europe can produce on a daily basis. I'm not sure how much Ukraine depends on Soviet howitzers right now, though. If they went from using 1k - 2k rounds a day a couple months ago to 6k now, that isn't likely due to a windfall of 152mm - probably NATO 155mm. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see another large-ish batch of M777s and/or other self-propelled howitzers drop within the next month. Part of the UK's aid was 20 M109A4 self-propelled howitzers, so that's already starting.

I'm also curious what the status is for the ammo the T-72 variants and also BMPs Ukraine depends on. I figure Poland's tank force was previously heavily dependent on T-72s, so they probably can produce this or have ample stock, considering they are basically giving Ukraine all of them so they can upgrade to the Abrams and Korea's K2.

This raises an interesting point...can Ukraine afford to maintain such a powerful military on such a poor economy? We might need to aid them on that front...

EU/US already is, but yea, that is a major concern over the next 12 months (or less). IIRC, it was posted here or elsewhere that Ukraine's GDP has basically been halved because of the conflict.

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This Slovak MiG-29 saga has been going on since the beginning of the war. Nad claimed they're worth €35 million each ($35.8 million), while the article below claims "Commercially-available, used MiG-29s have recently fetched between $5 million and $8 million, depending on their age and condition". So yeah, I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

https://www.airforcemag.com/polands-new-offer-mig-29s-in-exchange-for-buying-used-u-s-aircraft/

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1551639526430445571?s=20&t=ebWRnZ3DTMbHRJY5OmgcDA

There was apparently some modernization done to the MiGs in 2005. That probably accounts for at least some of it. I don't have the article handy right now but if I recall, it was a program in excess of 100 million dollars.

Either way, that is kind of steep. If that level of investment is actually being considered by America/NATO, then it might as well go towards F-16s.

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Only way Ukrainian attacks on bridges using HIMARS make sense is if they would have unlimited amount of rockets and launchers which is known not to be true. But hey, they are losing ground still in the east, they don't have success south, they just lost entire command structure of the 28th mechanized brigade so they have to show us something. Outside of Zelensky taking pictures with Vogue while peole are dying

It doesn't mean they are going after bridges everywhere with rockets, and it doesn't even necessarily mean all their attacks on that one specific bridge were using MLR Systems either. They do have precision artillery shells as well. This bridge has been attacked several different times now.

At any rate, they don't need unlimited ammunition to do this. If we're assuming they have or are going to receive thousands of rockets, then they can easily use a dozen or two on a strategic target like this. But they can't really make a habit of it, either.

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I can't watch that, but the fact that it exists should serve as a reminder for who the Russians are and why Ukraine is fighting them. It's really easy for some people to say Ukraine should sue for peace, but these people aren't the ones staring down the end of a rifle with some monster to the side holding a box cutter. It's time Russia is actually for once held responsible for the suffering they impose on the people who were so unlucky as to be born in one of the nations bordering that authoritarian hellhole.

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MLR systems are great for striking high value enemy targets/logistical stuff and can seriously degrade the Russians' ability to push forward, but Ukraine still needs a lot more armored vehicles/tanks and artillery to actually continue retaking territory. Especially when you consider that the more offensive operations they undertake, the more vehicles they will lose. The pickings are starting to get slim with regards to European countries with operational stocks of Soviet-era tanks who are also willing to send them to Ukraine under some condition(s).

This has actually been an impediment to Ukraine's effort to enlarge its military. Not enough weapons and other equipment to go around.

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US announced another $550 Million arms package to Ukraine today... looks to be mostly ammo:

The arms transfer will include ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, rocket launchers that have been used to destroy Russian command posts and ammunition depots as well as for 155-millimeter howitzers already in use by Ukrainian troops, Mr. Kirby said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/world/us-ukraine-weapons-military-aid.html

Germany apparently just delivered some additional weapons systems:

Ukraine on Monday confirmed the delivery of precision multiple-launch rocket systems from Germany, bolstering a growing arsenal that has been credited with destroying dozens of strategically important Russian targets. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht recently said that an initial delivery of German Gepard antiaircraft weapons has arrived in Ukraine and that Germany is sending more self-propelled howitzers than initially planned. Several German IRIS-T air defense systems are also slated for delivery in the autumn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

FTR the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks had to be used with ammunition from Norway that apparently turned out to not be compatible, so right now these are not particularly useful until adjustments are made.

Also I don't think that aid package was all ammunition. It was mentioned in another article that these were the topline items, "among other things." Plus going by the dollar amount, and by the cost of standard 155mm artillery shells, it wouldn't add up unless the US was giving Ukraine thousands of rockets in one go. I remember seeing a request by Ukraine a month or two ago about its "partners" being a bit more opaque about military aid, so that might be it. Then again, it's also possible I mistranslated the quote as my Russian is a tad rusty (like their tanks).

FWIW, it's probably in America's interest to not send large batches of MLRS rockets at once anyway, as that increases the risk of Russian conducting their own successful attacks on Ukraine's munition supplies. It also allows the US to more tightly control Ukraine's missile usage by forcing them to be frugal and only save them for high-priority targets.

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Hey, human wave tactics might still make a comeback in Europe after all

100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0

Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports.

A leading defence expert in Moscow, reserve colonel Igor Korotchenko, told state TV: “We shouldn’t be shy in accepting the hand extended to us by Kim Jong-un.”

North Korea has made it clear through “diplomatic channels” that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force, reported Regnum news agency.

They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.

They will overwhelm Ukraine with requests to defect

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https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1556607935199027201

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Billion-dollar aid package with most of it devoted merely to replenishing ammo stocks for existing weapons is a testament to how materiel-hungry war is, especially given that they just had a 550 million aid package a week ago or so and basically all of it was just artillery and HIMARS ammunition.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556684181270298624

On the topic of aid, I'm curious at what point another aid package will be needed from Congress. If I understand it correctly, some of the money allocated sunsets in September, if it hasn't been spent yet anyway. Most of it doesn't, but then again, much of that aid package wasn't direct military aid either.

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Modern war burns ammo at an inhuman rate. Like well above the amount that can be produced. We are going to have to send Ukraine both increasingly more packages and eventually transition them to NATO kit while Russia burns it’s increasingly dubious Cold War stockpiles.

Their artillery capability is already reliant on NATO howitzers, with a limited supply of 152mm shells for their older Soviet guns. This was a big reason why they got a shipment of 155mm L119 light howitzers a month ago and have been ordering Krabs / PzH 2000s. Unfortunately, they are still in a bind because the roughly ~200 - 250+ 155mm howitzers they have received are not enough to cover the massive front lines, let alone build up reserves for a proper counterattack. The end result is less strike capability and more wear and tear on existing guns, which need replacement barrels and other parts much more often since they are basically being maxed out. Hopefully NATO is discussing more howitzers for Ukraine at some point.

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The NATO 155mm howitzers sent should be doubled to 400-500 to give Ukraine a chance to win.

I agree that more should be given, but it's hard to see where those would come from. Europe doesn't have huge artillery forces, and many of those that have larger forces have given about as many as they are comfortable with already. That leaves the US and possibly any other countries willing to sell theirs. It's also not clear what more the US would be willing to send, given that they already donated 126+ M777s. Their M109A6s are currently being upgraded to the A7 Paladin model, and as such hundreds of the SPGs are currently out of service and being rebuilt. That leaves them with less margin for error and probably why they haven't already given some to Ukraine (just a guess, though).

It recently came out that Spain was looking to get rid of their M109A5 self-propelled howitzers in favor of France's CAESAR. Perhaps they could be convinced to immediately sell a significant part of their M109s (96 total) to Ukraine in exchange for priority deliveries from France when available, with security guarantees in the meantime. I think if Ukraine wants a lot more artillery soon, it would probably take some negotiating along those lines.

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I don't believe none of these are being sent because of a shortage of weapons for active use - they haven't used M198s for years. It may be that the US prioritizes keeping a large reserve, or does not want to supply Ukraine with so many tubes that they burn ammunition beyond a certain rate, or it may be due to them currently assessing whether it is useful to supply Ukraine with more mortars, howitzers, or HIMARS (they've just sent the first mortars in a while).

I mean that is pretty much what I was getting at. It doesn't matter exactly how many weapons the US has if they factor into their own plans and they are also not willing to compromise said plans. US weapon stores are not really in question so much as their willingness to actually take from it and give to Ukraine. Rate of ammunition usage sounds like a better explanation to me, if it was any of those. It's possible if the US doesn't think UA needs more, it could be along the lines of them believing they do need more but at the same time, more won't really change the front lines enough to justify the costs.

Does the US still have the capability to supply Ukraine with barrels and other parts for the M198s, if the US decided to donate these? Apparently it had maintenance and reliability issues during its lifetime, so that might have been a consideration.

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Another supply depot hit in Kherson Oblast, 150km+ from the front line.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556893167013748736

There's some speculation that it could be Neptune anti-ship missiles configured to hit land targets, or that the US finally gave Ukraine the ATACMS for the m270/HIMARS, which has a range of 300km.

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Update on Crimea airbase strike:

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1557007543897145347

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I'm highly sceptical Ukraine would deliberately hit a country that isn't officially part of this war.

It may be on Belarusian territory but it is functionally a Russian air base.

This was written a month~ ago:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-control-belarus-zyabrovka-airfield-20-miles-ukraine-1722757

A top Ukrainian official has stated that Belarus has given "full control" of the Zyabrovka airfield near the Ukraine-Belarus border to Russia, materializing previous fears that a growing number of Belarusian assets are intensifying war-time pressures.

So at the very least it should give some insight into how Ukraine views that base.