Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

More Russian advances in Kurakhove

https://twitter.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1873604308727701901

[UWS]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-announces-25-billion-fresh-military-aid-ukraine-2024-12-30/

"US announces $5.9 billion in military and budget aid to Ukraine"

[GoTfan]

If anything what this war has shown is that despite the Putinbots' claim, it would not take every NATO nation to defeat Russia.

[UWS]

https://novayagazeta.eu/amp/articles/2024/12/31/ukrainian-forces-launch-drone-attacks-on-russia-and-annexed-crimea-en-news

[UWS]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44725

https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-trained-officers-for-potential-war-with-japan-and-south-korea-leaked-documents-reveal-4813

That is the reason why we must defeat Russia in Ukraine. If Russia were to attack South Korea and Japan that will likely be done with nuclear weapons due to Pyongyang’s proximity

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44725

https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-trained-officers-for-potential-war-with-japan-and-south-korea-leaked-documents-reveal-4813

That is the reason why we must defeat Russia in Ukraine. If Russia were to attack South Korea and Japan that will likely be done with nuclear weapons due to Pyongyang’s proximity

It's hard to tell how serious Russia is at this, but it shouldn't hurt to be prepared.

[Storr]

This is the 10th Russian general killed (confirmed by both sides) since the February 2022 invasion. It is being speculated online that he was killed in a HIMARS strike:

"Russian Major General Konstantin [Evgenievich] Smeshko (Константин Смешко), deputy commander of the Russian Engineer Troops, had a funeral in Moscow [on December 30th]. He died on 26 December 2024, but we don’t know from what cause."

Additionally, Someone on Reddit found this piece of history from Obama's ill-fated "Russian reset" attempt:

"A Russian delegation, led by Deputy Chief of Engineering Forces, Gen-Maj Konstantin Smeshko, visited the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization headquarters in Washington, D.C. on June 17[, 2013]. During the visit, Mr. B. Ray Fitzgerald, Vice Director for JIEDDO, provided the Russian visitors with a JIEDDO Command brief and discussed areas of deeper cooperation between the United Sates and Russia.

Following the headquarters visit, the Russia delegation traveled to the Joint Center of Excellence training facility at Ft. Irwin, California. During this portion of the trip, Gen-Maj Smeshko sought to enhance his understanding of the technology and training used in U.S. efforts to counter improvised explosive devices."


https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1873800572291473583

Somewhat irrelevant tangent: I tried to see if I could find where he was born, since I'm pretty sure Smeshko is a Ukrainian surname. I was curious because there are Russian generals who've played a part in the war who were born and raised in Ukraine. Alas, I couldn't find anything since Russian Major Generals (equivalent to a Brigadier one-star General in the US) don't get much attention, from domestic media or Western OSINT nerds. But in all likelihood he's from Russia and had paternal relatives move from what's now independent Ukraine to somewhere in Russia long before he was born. For example, Ukrainian origin surnames are quite common in the Russian Far East and Southern Russia due to historic migration and settlement in those regions.

[UWS]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/12/31/7491504/

Here is why 2025 is great opportunity for Kyiv taking advantage of Russian economy cracking due to high inflation in Moscow and Europe turning toward U.S. oil and Russian economy overheated

[UWS]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/31/7491522/

[UWS]

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_drones_attacked_an_oil_depot_in_smolensk_oblast-13040.html

[UWS]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-halts-pipeline-carrying-russian-natural-gas-europe/story?id=117246106

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/12/31/7491504/

Here is why 2025 is great opportunity for Kyiv taking advantage of Russian economy cracking due to high inflation in Moscow and Europe turning toward U.S. oil and Russian economy overheated

This is definitely the best route they have

[Frodo]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/12/31/7491504/

Here is why 2025 is great opportunity for Kyiv taking advantage of Russian economy cracking due to high inflation in Moscow and Europe turning toward U.S. oil and Russian economy overheated

This is definitely the best route they have

Especially if Putin continues to be anal retentive towards Trump's peace proposal, and subsequently irritates Trump so much that he ramps up aid towards Ukraine for one more year. 

[Storr]

"So, by the end of 2024, Russia (the world's second-largest army with the third-largest military budget)

- failed to capture Donetsk Oblast after over 30 months of fighting;
- failed to advance beyond a few kilometers in the border zone during its grand offensive on Kharkiv.
- suffered a complete collapse in Syria;
- lost control of part of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces and has been unable to retake it (even after drawing North Korea into the war);
- failed to plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness after three years of missile attacks and bombings;
- captured about 2,800 km² of Ukrainian territory after a year of hostilities (which is slightly larger than the area of Luxembourg); [That's equivalent to 0.46% of Ukraine's total land area. Given 18.07% of Ukraine's territory was Russian occupied at the end of November, at that rate the Russians will reach the Polish border in what...about 160 years?]
- failed to stop Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots, and ammunition warehouses;
- is about to enter the fourth year of its blitzkrieg to take Kyiv in three days, with 600,000 killed and wounded, and the first signs that its economy cannot sustain the immense military expenditures, threatening stagflation;

The battle of Ukraine continues."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1874049403503198710

[Hindsight was 2020]

"So, by the end of 2024, Russia (the world's second-largest army with the third-largest military budget)

- failed to capture Donetsk Oblast after over 30 months of fighting;
- failed to advance beyond a few kilometers in the border zone during its grand offensive on Kharkiv.
- suffered a complete collapse in Syria;
- lost control of part of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces and has been unable to retake it (even after drawing North Korea into the war);
- failed to plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness after three years of missile attacks and bombings;
- captured about 2,800 km² of Ukrainian territory after a year of hostilities (which is slightly larger than the area of Luxembourg); [That's equivalent to 0.46% of Ukraine's total land area. Given 18.07% of Ukraine's territory was Russian occupied at the end of November, at that rate the Russians will reach the Polish border in what...about 160 years?]
- failed to stop Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots, and ammunition warehouses;
- is about to enter the fourth year of its blitzkrieg to take Kyiv in three days, with 600,000 killed and wounded, and the first signs that its economy cannot sustain the immense military expenditures, threatening stagflation;

The battle of Ukraine continues."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1874049403503198710

Yeah Ukraine has issues but they still managed to impressively hold on in spite of it

[jaichind]

Russian advances on the Western flank of  Pokrovsk.

https://twitter.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1874385672200679912

[GoTfan]

Russian advances on the Western flank of  Pokrovsk.

https://twitter.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1874385672200679912

Had to get that out right after some bad news about Russia, didn't you?

[CumbrianLefty]

Had to get that out right after some bad news about Russia, didn't you?

That's how he rolls.

[UWS]

"So, by the end of 2024, Russia (the world's second-largest army with the third-largest military budget)

- failed to capture Donetsk Oblast after over 30 months of fighting;
- failed to advance beyond a few kilometers in the border zone during its grand offensive on Kharkiv.
- suffered a complete collapse in Syria;
- lost control of part of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces and has been unable to retake it (even after drawing North Korea into the war);
- failed to plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness after three years of missile attacks and bombings;
- captured about 2,800 km² of Ukrainian territory after a year of hostilities (which is slightly larger than the area of Luxembourg); [That's equivalent to 0.46% of Ukraine's total land area. Given 18.07% of Ukraine's territory was Russian occupied at the end of November, at that rate the Russians will reach the Polish border in what...about 160 years?]
- failed to stop Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots, and ammunition warehouses;
- is about to enter the fourth year of its blitzkrieg to take Kyiv in three days, with 600,000 killed and wounded, and the first signs that its economy cannot sustain the immense military expenditures, threatening stagflation;

The battle of Ukraine continues."

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1874049403503198710

Russians also failed to get pro-Russian leaders elected in Moldova through their meddling in the Moldovan presidential election which would have paved way for Russian invasion on that country. Last year was definitely bad year for Emperor Palputin Dark Lord of the Sith (Russians loyal to him);

[UWS]

https://censor.net/en/news/3528056/200-pilots-completed-training-in-the-uk

[UWS]

https://www.ukrinform.fr/rubric-ato/3944420-lukraine-precise-avoir-abattu-deux-helicopteres-russes-grace-a-un-missile-lance-depuis-un-drone-naval.html

[jaichind]

From Nov 2024

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/15/france-completes-training-and-equips-ukraines-newly-formed-anna-of-kyiv-brigade/

"France completes training of Ukraine’s newly-formed Anna of Kyiv Brigade"

Now

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44834

"Ukraine Investigates Alleged Mass Desertion of French-Trained 155th ‘Anne of Kyiv’ Brigade"

It seems that there are large scale desertions from this partly French trained unit.  Does not look good for France.

[Meclazine for Israel]

From Nov 2024

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/15/france-completes-training-and-equips-ukraines-newly-formed-anna-of-kyiv-brigade/

"France completes training of Ukraine’s newly-formed Anna of Kyiv Brigade"

Now

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44834

"Ukraine Investigates Alleged Mass Desertion of French-Trained 155th ‘Anne of Kyiv’ Brigade"

It seems that there are large scale desertions from this partly French trained unit.  Does not look good for France.

I would too.

Those online videos of men getting chased through the fields and blown up by drones are horrific.

This war is atrocious and just needs to stop.

Someone needs anti-drone technology to neutralise them.

[Hollywood]

From Nov 2024

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/15/france-completes-training-and-equips-ukraines-newly-formed-anna-of-kyiv-brigade/

"France completes training of Ukraine’s newly-formed Anna of Kyiv Brigade"

Now

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44834

"Ukraine Investigates Alleged Mass Desertion of French-Trained 155th ‘Anne of Kyiv’ Brigade"

It seems that there are large scale desertions from this partly French trained unit.  Does not look good for France.

They are placing the blame on the Ukrainian Military Commander of the 155th Brigade, Dmytro Riumshin, but 7 officers of the brigade claim this confusion and disorganization was due to Central Command failing to send it drones or electronic equipment.  This has been a big complaint from Ukrainian Supporters since October, and recently, there hasn't been a lot of drone footage from the Pokrovsk Front.  Russia has also advanced relatively quickly into small towns around the city and are attempting to flank the roads feeding supplies to Ukrainian Defensive position.    
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kursk-d297a59fb9eb7db08bd742e1dd0aa753

Meanwhile, Ukraine is sending drones into Kursk to stop the Russians from tightening the noose around their FOB in Sudzha.  This Ukrainian Pocket is closing from the NW and SE. As Ukraine celebrates their attacks on Russian positions over the past few days, it comes against a backdrop of continued losses of manpower, equipment, and territory. It's likely that Russian claims of over 45,000 causalities is accurate. IMO, Kursk is to Ukraine as Kherson was to Russia.  It's a pocket that can't be held and no longer serves any rationale strategical value. In fact, just like Kherson, the offensive in Kursk is eating too many men, weapons and vehicles.  

According to the AP, the commander that led the assault into Kherson several months said the operation: “Seemed crazy. I didn’t understand why.”  The AP sums up the account of 7 officers, writing "By early November the Russians began regaining territory rapidly. Once in awe of what they accomplished, troops’ opinions are now shifting as they come to terms with losses. The company commander said half of his troops were dead or wounded."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kursk-d297a59fb9eb7db08bd742e1dd0aa753