Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://www.tysol.pl/a118063-tusk-rozmawiamy-z-ukraina-o-calkowitym-zamknieciu-granicy

"Tusk: We are talking to Ukraine about completely closing the border"

Important: "However, he noted that this would be a temporary solution and "painful" for both parties."

Subsidies do make sense as a long term solution: ""I am ready to take hard decisions when it comes to the border with Ukraine, always in consultation with Kiev, so that there are no unnecessary tensions. But we must find a long-term solution," Tusk said.

He added: "We will talk about possible grain subsidies and other measures that will allow us to sell Polish grain as quickly as possible." According to him, the state can help in purchasing this grain, so that, for example, Polish grain will be more attractive in terms of prices than Ukrainian grain."

[Storr]

“Yesterday, 02/27/2024, at about 19:00, there was a strike on the gathering place of personnel of the 155th separate marine brigade (military unit 30926, Vladivostok) in the settlement of Olenivka, Donetsk region.

The command held an awarding of servicemen. The strike was carried out by two HIMARS missiles. As a result of the strike, 19 soldiers were killed and another 12 were injured.

According to the source, among the dead:
• Roman Kozhukhov, lieutenant colonel, deputy brigade commander;
• Alexander Abilov, major;
• Nail Shakhmanov, captain;

The commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Colonel Mikhail Gudkov, was wounded.

The source reports that the command was aware of the work of an enemy reconnaissance UAV in their area, but ignored this information.”

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1762910185507483816?s=20

[Storr]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/pentagon-considering-tapping-last-source-ukraine-funding/index.html

The Pentagon is weighing whether to tap into the last remaining source of funding it has for military aid to support Ukraine’s war effort against Russia even without guarantees that those funds will be replenished by Congress, multiple defense officials told CNN.

The Defense Department still has around $4 billion in presidential drawdown authority funds available for Ukraine, which allows the Pentagon to draw from its own stockpiles to send military equipment to Kyiv.

But the Pentagon had previously been reluctant to spend any of that remaining money without assurances it would be reimbursed by Congress through the administration’s $60 billion supplemental funding request, because taking from DoD stockpiles with no plan to replenish that equipment could impact US military readiness.

“At issue here again is the question of impacting our own readiness, as a nation, and the responsibilities that we have,” he said last month when asked about the money. “And so, yes, while we do have that $4.2 billion in authority, we don’t have the funds available to us to replenish those stocks should we expend that. And with no timeline in sight, we have to make those hard decisions.”

This is so unbelievably idiotic. The US military has tons of spare, and besides they have no plausible reason to be fighting a war in the next decade. The Pentagon should be scraping the bottom of its reserves to send to Ukraine right now and it's shameful that they keep dithering over bullsh*t reasons like this.

Exactly, this tweet sums it up for me:
"The administration could have made this decision at any point during the past three months.

They chose to wait until Ukraine's ammunition ran so low Ukrainian troops were unable to casevac wounded from the front due to their inability to provide suppressive fire. Criminal."

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1762876195316629608?s=20

[Storr]

I'm still skeptical about this, except for sending maybe a few dozen technical experts. I think it's mostly a distraction to divert attention from France's paltry military contributions to Ukraine (€640 million to €1.7 billion vs. Germany's €17.7 billion). But it's still interesting that despite all the blowback from NATO allies after Macron's 'not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine' comment, government officials are still publicly talking about it:

"BREAKING:

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal says that France may send soldiers to Ukraine for air defense systems, training of the Ukrainian army or protecting Ukraine’s border with Belarus"

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1763300044432720345?s=20

[Storr]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093

"Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace"



This seems to be the deal that Putin was talking about a year ago so most of these terms are fairly well known

The deal being discussed were

1) Ukraine potentially joining the EU but not military alliances like NATO

2) Crimea remains under unconditional Russian control. The future of the Donass be determined in personal negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.

3) Other occupied territories by Russia after February 24, 2022, were not mentioned in the article, but it was stated that Russian troops agreed to withdraw from them.

4) Foreign weapons and troops cannot be sent to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army was to be reduced to certain levels.

5) The Russian language was to be used alongside Ukrainian in official spheres, but Ukraine did not agree. (It seems Ukraine has rejected this item during talks)

6) Security for Ukraine in the agreement would be guaranteed by the 5 Permanent members of the  Security Council.

6) International security guarantees would not apply to Crimea. Russia wanted Belarus to be added as a guarantor, while Ukraine wanted Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, Russia proposed that all guarantor states agree on a response, but Ukraine opposed this, wanting its airspace to be closed and requiring the guarantor states to establish a no-fly zone and provide weapons. Russia disagreed with this.

-> At this stage any peace terms will be much harder than this.  I think the EU for Ukraine will be out and there will be clear territorial losses as well as no NATO.

Such an agreement would have left Ukraine defenseless. Their military would have been cut to a size where it could not defend the country from a future Russian invasion. Additionally, nothing in the proposed agreement (such as NATO membership) would have prevented Russia from violating whatever security agreement the peace deal involved, similar to how Russia has violated multiple international agreements since 2014. Basically this agreement meant peace = Ukrainian disarmament.

 

[Storr]

Hopefully this is true:

"Ukraine may receive the first batch of 800,000 shells "within weeks" as part of a Czech-led initiative to finance the purchase of 155mm artillery shells from third countries, Bloomberg reported on 2 March."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763915915287040411?s=20

[Storr]

"Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov says that Russia's much vaunted T-14 Armata tank won't be used in Ukraine because it's "too expensive"

So it was designed and built solely for Victory Day parades on Red Square?
https://ria.ru/20240304/armata-1930916994.html"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1764603143277457609?s=20

[Storr]

Russia is a parody of itself:

"Last week, Arkhangelsk gave us the “We Must Know Our Heroes’ Faces” university talk with masked Russian soldiers. This week, behold the forum on “Women Changing the World.” See if you can spot the issue."



https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1765026952769913001?s=20

[Storr]

I guess this shows that money talks, even when pledges and promises fail to deliver:

"🇪🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine has procured over 350,000 artillery shells themselves from European defense industry

This was disclosed by EU VP Josep Borrell, who stated that in addition to ammunition donated and procured by EU states, Ukraine had acquired 350k shells via their own contracts."

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1765062605109108833?s=20

[Storr]

"The necessary amount for the purchase of 800,000 pieces of artillery ammunition for Ukraine from countries outside the European Union has been collected. Czech President Petr Pavel told journalists today during his visit to the Central Bohemian Region. Another 18 countries will participate in the assistance initiated by the Czech Republic. The ammunition should be in Ukraine in the coming weeks.

https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/pavel-castka-na-nakup-munice-pro-ukrajinu-je-shromazdena/2489100"

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1765794972387733664?s=20

[Storr]

https://www.newsweek.com/poll-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-election-1876375

"Zelensky Receives Polling Blow from His Former Top Lieutenant"

So far McClellan is well ahead of Lincoln

Polls has it at  Zaluzhny 67.5     Zelensky 32.5

Good lord that's beyond awful for Zelensky.

Interesting timing:

"News: President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the candidacy of Valery Zaluzhny, former top army general dismissed in February, for the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1765791973925929205?s=20

[Storr]

Donald Tusk: "The post-war epoch is gone. We are living in new times: in a pre-war epoch. This is why NATO and solidarity between Europe and America are more important than ever before."

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1766448028427182382?s=20

[Storr]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-ukraine-should-have-courage-white-flag-negotiations-2024-03-09/

"Pope says Ukraine should have 'courage of the white flag' of negotiations"

Putin has now weaponizied the Pope?

"A thinly veiled reply to Pope Francis’s “white flag” remark from Zelensky: “In Ukraine, there were many once-white walls of houses and churches that are now scorched and ruined by Russian shells. And this speaks very eloquently about who has to stop for the war to end.”"

"And Ukrainian FM Kuleba’s even more pointed response to the Pope: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.”"

[Storr]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1767883770709876792?s=20

[Storr]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

Well, whether you like it or not, it's a valid argument, and not much different from why Israel or the people backing them internationally are not automatically pro-ceasefire.

There's no reason for Putin to unilaterally surrender territory back to Ukraine. They've taken the land. This is war, it's the Ukrainians' job to come take it back if they want to control it.  It's been almost 10 years now and they still haven't taken back Crimea or the eastern regions of the Donbass. If the Russians give any land back, it'll be a bargaining chip for the Russians to get something else they more want because the Ukrainians have demonstrated so far they have not been able to take it back based on the evidence of the years preceding this conflict in Crimea and the eastern regions of the Donbass, and during the life of this conflict that the lines of control have hardly moved for 21 months now.

I can't fault Putin's logic. If he feels like he's turning the tide of the war and can eventually win, why would he negotiate? My main gripe is with those that claim halting funding to Ukraine would end the bloodshed and bring peace. Even if the West stopped supporting Ukraine completely, the Ukrainians wouldn't stop fighting because they're fighting for the existence of their country. Ukraine facing uncertainty from its allies (resulting in it "running out of ammunition" as Putin says) only emboldens Putin to conquer more territory, instead of encouraging him to negotiate. 

[Storr]

"Death toll from the Russian double-tap missile attack in Odesa today has risen to 16; number of wounded is 73, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1768672943565901854?s=20

[Storr]

Ukraine could simply offer a cease-fire at the current lines of control. They can say they do not require Russia to make any territorial concessions, and neither will they, but that they are willing to stop shooting to halt the bloodshed. Then, Putin only has two choices. He can (a) agree, which gives Ukraine more time to rebuild its defenses while preventing any further loss of territory or blood at least for a time, or (b) refuse, in which case Ukraine can say to the world, "Look, we are willing to stop this war at any time, but it's solely due to the madman Putin that it continues. All the bloodshed is on him." This would have an undermining effect on Russian propaganda at the margins, and it is at the margins that these things matter anyway, and there is no cost for such a course of action to Ukraine.

I don’t see any margins option b sways practically everyone in the Russian camp are bad faith trolls who just ignore this stuff. Case in point the current rhetoric that is pushing Ukraine to go the negotiating table like their being the unreasonable ones all while Russia is saying their demands for peace is the surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty

Outside of the second-and-third-to-last demands, which are obviously not official and worth debating, everything else is perfectly acceptable if Ukrainians wants to keep existing with their own nation. Ending this war with a humanitarian ceasefire and having Ukraine be a neutral zone would still be a win to the West as any source of Russian soft power and proxy states have all but dried up.

The problem is neither side wants a ceasefire. Russia thinks it finally has the advantage with wavering Western support and resulting Ukrainian ammunition shortage. Ukraine doesn’t want a ceasefire because it would allow Russia to rebuild its military and simply conduct another surprise invasion in a few years.

In order for a ceasefire, both sides would need to feel like they cannot win total victory (like Korea). Ukraine might agree to a ceasefire if it received serious security guarantees, not ones the West can choose to ignore if/when Russia invades again. But I’m not sure what would convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire. He’s staked his regime on this war after annexation and mobilization. After all, the reason Putin keeps threatening the use of nuclear weapons if the
NATO intervenes is because that would immediately end any prospect/illusion of total victory.

[Storr]

"Every time I re-read this conversation between Walesa and Clinton, I can't help but think that Walesa had a lot of foresight."

[Storr]

Czechia finds another 700,000 artillery shells available, bringing the total sourced worldwide to 1.5 million. They estimate it will cost $3.3 billion to obtain them all. So assuming these deals hold up, a shell shortage in Ukraine is avoidable if the price is willing to be paid, at least for 2024.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1769483993492193542

Rob Lee: "This is an important initiative, but it is also critical to provide Ukraine with standardized ammunition as much as possible. Different 155mm rounds have different ballistics, and certain rounds are better suited to specific howitzers. This adds complications for artillery crews.

152mm and 122mm ammunition deliveries are helpful for a few reasons. Many Ukrainian maneuver brigades do not have NATO howitzers, so they have to rely on support from artillery brigades. And the reliance on 155mm ammunition is creating a problem with barrels for NATO howitzers."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1769406146794664004?s=20

[Storr]

It appears Ukraine is not listening to the Biden administration's idiotic request that it stop targeting Russian refineries:

"Ukraine successfully strikes another Russian oil refinery, the Kuybyshev NPZ [in Samara], overnight. It’s nearly 600 miles from the border."

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1771411360200769837?s=20

[Storr]

"Reuters calculations show that shutdowns forced by Ukrainian drone attacks in 2024 have cost Russia roughly 7 percent of its oil refining capacity — about 4.6 million tons (370,500 barrels per day)."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1772428027583938722?s=20

[Storr]

Because it was so successful the last time you tried to take it:

"After the latest drone attacks on Russia this morning [targeting a drone factory and an oil refinery] - both over 1,200km from Ukraine - the chair of the State Duma’s defence committee Andrei Kartapolov says they will only cease once Kyiv is taken"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1775081001334485335?s=20

[Storr]

This isn't war related, but no doubt it has had at least a tiny effect on national moral. Anyway, the Ukrainian men's football (or soccer as we call it in freedomland) team qualified for the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 after defeating Iceland 2-1 in the qualification playoff path B final. The team was one goal away from making the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, losing to Wales 1-0 in the UEFA qualification second round path A final. Because of the war, since February 2022 all of the team's home games have been played in Poland.

Zelensky: "Thank you, guys!
Thank you, team!
For significant emotions for the entire country.
For the important victory and making it to EURO.
For proving once again: whenever Ukrainians face difficulties but do not give up and continue to fight, Ukrainians certainly win.
In times, when the enemy tries to destroy us, we demonstrate every day that Ukrainians are and will be.
Ukraine is, and will be!
Thank you for the victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦"

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772743530684809713?s=20

[Storr]

The latest in "truth is stranger than fiction":

"A former Massachusetts city councilor was charged with possession of child pornography in 2020. He skipped a court date in January 2024, flying to Istanbul.
In February, he was reportedly in Avdiivka after joining the Russian army (with Pyatnashka).

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/04/04/pro-kremlin-telegram-channels-share-propaganda-video-featuring-u-s-city-councilor-who-joined-russian-army-after-fleeing-child-pornography-charges"

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1775881811761016847?s=20

[Storr]

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries continue to effect the Russian economy:

"Diesel loadings from #Russia's three major ports on Black and Baltic Seas, including some volumes originating in Belarus, are set to fall to ~2.29m tons in April. That equates to just over 569k b/d, down 21% vs actual daily exports from same ports in March"

https://twitter.com/olyatanas/status/1775127939002081637?s=20