Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[windjammer]

I have the feeling the russian army is going to collapse

[windjammer]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

[windjammer]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

[windjammer]

Are you being optimistic about the Ukraine counteroffensive?

Honestly I am. I have the feeling the Ukrainians & the Americans are preparing something great

6 months ago I was worried about the war being a perpetual stalemate, with the Ukrainians holding the Russians back, but not able to launch counteroffensives. Then came the Ukrainian counteroffensives that liberated Kherson and Kharkiv. I have stopped underestimating the Ukrainian army and overestimating the Russian army.

The Russians have only advanced 2.5 miles a month in the Bakhmut area, while they lost Kherson and Kharkiv.  

My reasoning is that the Russians are still underperforming expectations so they are still being overestimated. Like they were supposed to capture Bakhmut for a few months now and it appears they are still far away from achieving this.

[windjammer]

Are the ukrainians underperforming or overperforming the expectations ?

[windjammer]

It might make sense to spin off discussion about the Putsch into a separate thread?

I disagree, I think this conflict is entering into a new phase : russian civil war

[windjammer]

What a Big humiliation for Putin

[windjammer]

Putin had his yearly marathon of taking questions from ordinary Russians (which totally aren't planted) on live television. Most of it is typical Putinspeak where he claims everything is going great and there's nothing to worry about, but there are some tidbits where we get insight into his brain:

"Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia."

"Putin also sounds confident that western military support for Ukraine is drying up.

"Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the west, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is," he says."

"Putin crows at length about Ukraine's battlefield failures.

"The enemy announced a big counteroffensive. none of it worked anywhere," he said. "I don't even know why they do this. They are just sending their men out to be destroyed. It's a one-way ticket.""

"Putin also hinted quite strongly he'd like to annex at least two more Ukrainian provinces:

"Crimea and the whole Black Sea region have nothing to do with [Ukraine]. Odesa is a Russian city. We know that. Everyone does. But no, they thought up all sorts of historical nonsense.""


https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735231041395204230?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735235167801778216?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735300042070675528?s=20

His reactions are reminding me of Hitler when he believed that Roosevelt's death would turn the tide in his favor. I don't even believe he's lying. He's being desillusional lol.