Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Is this not just Pilsudski's intermarium?

Polish–Lithuanian union before the partitions were way bigger than interwar Poland and included Western Ukraine and a bunch of other places

[Lord Halifax]

His actions since then, and increasingly his own words, indicate that he views less economic growth and even conflict with the western-aligned powers as a necessary price to pay to maintain the Party's hegemony at home.

why would high economic growth threaten the party's hegemony?

[Cassius]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Is this not just Pilsudski's intermarium?

Polish–Lithuanian union before the partitions were way bigger than interwar Poland and included Western Ukraine and a bunch of other places

Piłsudski actually envisioned the Baltic countries, Central Europe and the Balkans forming part of “intermarium” in addition to the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth lands. Completely unworkable of course, given how even in the smaller countries that emerged out of the Versailles settlement (including Poland) the different “nationalities” always ended up fighting like rabbits in a sack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pilsudski was the greatest geopolitical mind of his generation, and it's a tragedy that other Eastern European leaders were too concerned with petty disputes to share his vision. So much bloodshed could have been avoided if Intermarium had been able to establish itself as a strong buffer between Russia and Germany. Thankfully, the experience of Nazi and Soviet oppression seems to have convinced most Eastern Europeans (with some unfortunate exceptions) of the need to work together to resist imperial encroachment. We are seeing the fruits of that with Poland, the Baltics etc.'s strong support for Ukraine, and hopefully in the long run this will move closer toward a proper political union.

[lfromnj]

Pilsudski was the greatest geopolitical mind of his generation, and it's a tragedy that other Eastern European leaders were too concerned with petty disputes to share his vision. So much bloodshed could have been avoided if Intermarium had been able to establish itself as a strong buffer between Russia and Germany. Thankfully, the experience of Nazi and Soviet oppression seems to have convinced most Eastern Europeans (with some unfortunate exceptions) of the need to work together to resist imperial encroachment. We are seeing the fruits of that with Poland, the Baltics etc.'s strong support for Ukraine, and hopefully in the long run this will move closer toward a proper political union.

Pilsudski was involved in taking Vilno/Vilnius from Lithuania (which tbf was like 80% polish ) but overall he definitely knew the need for a united central Europe. He definitely wouldn't have been dumb enough to take measly Zaolsie .

[2952-0-0]

His actions since then, and increasingly his own words, indicate that he views less economic growth and even conflict with the western-aligned powers as a necessary price to pay to maintain the Party's hegemony at home.

why would high economic growth threaten the party's hegemony?

It depends on how it occurs, who benefits, and who loses out. The type of economic growth that would make the Chinese people as a whole best off would require liberalizing economic reforms while introducing a comprehensive welfare state. It would also require political reforms which, at minimum, include a separation of powers and a genuine rule of law, rather than rule by law. But, these would cause millions of Party apparatchiks to lose their jobs and their powers, and the Party elite would question whether they still need to be loyal to the Party for their interests.

If Xi had his way, China's economy would be dominated by state-owned, or CCP-directed national champions which were world leaders in their fields, allowing him to maintain full control over a growing pie. But, events of the past decade have proven that isn't realistic, and a choice has to be made between increasing the pie, or maintaining full control over the pie.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pilsudski was the greatest geopolitical mind of his generation, and it's a tragedy that other Eastern European leaders were too concerned with petty disputes to share his vision. So much bloodshed could have been avoided if Intermarium had been able to establish itself as a strong buffer between Russia and Germany. Thankfully, the experience of Nazi and Soviet oppression seems to have convinced most Eastern Europeans (with some unfortunate exceptions) of the need to work together to resist imperial encroachment. We are seeing the fruits of that with Poland, the Baltics etc.'s strong support for Ukraine, and hopefully in the long run this will move closer toward a proper political union.

Pilsudski was involved in taking Vilno/Vilnius from Lithuania (which tbf was like 80% polish ) but overall he definitely knew the need for a united central Europe. He definitely wouldn't have been dumb enough to take measly Zaolsie .

It's not really fair to say he "took it from" Lithuania, because countries at that point didn't have internationally recognized borders, and the whole point of the wars of the early 1920s was establishing what those borders would be. That said, I agree that antagonizing Lithuania undermined his broader geopolitical purposes, and that working out some kind of mutual association deal with Lithuania would have been a better way forward (although I doubt Lithuania would have agreed either way).

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The idea that Putin will become Beijing's puppet is too simplified and doesn't capture the required nuance.

Yes, I have always rejected this idea as too boring because of its too obvious. But apparently this is how it works in reality - the too boring and the too obvious turns out to be what it really is.

In response to your post in general, I think Winnie the Pooh will not be upset at all if something happens to the Putin regime or Russia. I think there is nothing more profitable for him than using Russia as a kamikaze in a nuclear war against the United States. Or at least to use Russia for blackmail: peace in Europe in exchange for the annexation of Taiwan.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1642320457335463937
A good thread on Bakmut but to summarize: Russia is throwing everything into a push right now into the center of Bakmut to take the city through block by block fighting but Ukraine still hold the the strongest defensive positions in the city and the flanks along with communication lines are stable so if they hold out Russia will be in trouble

[2952-0-0]

In response to your post in general, I think Winnie the Pooh will not be upset at all if something happens to the Putin regime or Russia. I think there is nothing more profitable for him than using Russia as a kamikaze in a nuclear war against the United States. Or at least to use Russia for blackmail: peace in Europe in exchange for the annexation of Taiwan.

Oh no, I disagree with this. The events of 1989-91 shook the CCP to the core. It just so happens that the people who were in their political formative years back then are now in the halls of power, including Winnie himself. For the same thing to happen again 30 years later, but in a much more dramatic fashion (i.e. the west destroyed Russia by using a smaller part of Russia to wage a proxy war), would re-traumatize them. It would shatter the domestic political narrative. Again, I don't think this will be fatal to Xi or the CCP, but it's not something they want.

Then there's the question: to what extent could China really help Russia in its war, especially if it's failing? Suppose say that Winnie agrees to send a million artillery shells to Russia. He can easily order this. Then, the shells are loaded onto a train heading north. The train arrives at Irkutsk, where the local army commander demands that 100,000 shells be offloaded in order to boost up the nation's strategic reserves. Then, the train moves on to Krasnoyarsk, where the local army commander makes the same demand. Then Novosibirsk, Omsk, etc, etc. By the time the train arrives in eastern Ukraine, there are only 200,000 shells left. That might be enough to bombard another Ukrainian city and capture its ruins. But, Russia itself will be on the brink of a civil war.

And, even if Winnie were to openly use Russia as a blackmail to get his way elsewhere, that will only embolden the western powers into taking the gloves off. Murmurs among the Republican Party that too much aid is going to Ukraine will vanish. The Ukrainians are preparing to receive M1A tanks - just a token few dozen for now, but the US can easily send hundreds it has in storage. F-16s are also coming, sooner or later. After that, it won't even be funny. One of the events in the period between 1989-91 that shocked the CCP was the Gulf War: Iraq's army was very similar to China's army in terms of equipment and training, and to see it annihilated within days was deeply shocking in Beijing.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1641848860996771841?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1642411539406766080?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

[Woody]

Mariupol - April/End of March 2023

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

Nothing says "winning this war" like relying on ammunition manufactured before the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Both sides are doing it, although when it comes to the 50+-year-old artillery ammunition, I'm tempted to assume that at least some parts of them have been refurbished or replaced (considering the routine claims that they'd expire otherwise).

When you have shell hunger (as seems to be the case in all long, conventional wars), bringing out uncommon calibers and old guns can make sense - and artillery seems to age "better" to begin with compared to, say, APCs or tanks.

[American2020]

Russian ‘invasion was wrong’: Views from China on war in Ukraine

During that year, she grew very fond of Kyiv and its people. She remembers walking the city’s winding riverbanks and visiting its spacious parks, sharing cocktails with friends in its charming bars, and having dinner parties in homes like those she now watched being turned to charred ruins by Russian missiles.

“It was very hard to see the city that had been my home turned into a war zone,” Fang* told Al Jazeera from her home in Shanghai.

Before the invasion, Fang had held a quite positive view of Russia and President Vladimir Putin. After the invasion, that all changed.

“What I saw and what I heard from my Ukrainian friends about their lives being destroyed because of Putin’s imperialistic fantasies meant that I lost all my support and respect for Russia and for Putin,” she said.

Fang knows that her critical views of Russia are unique, particularly in the context of China’s deeply censured news media environment and especially when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Yet, more than a year after the invasion, there are signs that the perspectives of everyday Chinese people are shifting towards Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s view of Putin.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/31/russian-invasion-was-wrong-views-from-china-on-war-in-ukraine

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rest in piss bozo
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642558677939892226
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642560342021619715
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1571499124570181635

[Logical]

If I was Igor Girkin I would be sh**ting bricks right now.

[Torie]

After one has had their fill of the above images of Putin's Potemkin village

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632504832769523713

lining the truck arterials supplying the occupied territories on the perhaps not that much longer to be land bridge, here is a more complete essay of Putin's doings in the Mariupol.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/feb/23/mariupol-the-ruin-of-a-city

[Virginiá]

How dense do they have to be to believe massacring a bunch of innocent civilians is 'intimidating' to the west?  If anything, it's the opposite. Particularly given how decrepit and incompetent the Russian military has become. The only thing the west sees is a weak, barely-regional power struggling to achieve any of their military objectives and instead taking it out on civilians, because that kind of cruelty is all they know.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If I was Igor Girkin I would be sh**ting bricks right now.

The BBC cites a claim that the explosion happened at a cafe which used to be owned by the leader of the Wagner Group: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65155075

Ultranationalists have gotten quite comfortable sniping at high-ranking officials in Putin's government for not killing enough Ukrainians. Perhaps too comfortable, as in the case of the Kherson deputy "governor" who was killed after the retreat (he'd previously encouraged Shoigu to commit suicide).

[Middle-aged Europe]

So was Tatarsky/Fomin killed by the Ukrainians (for being a disgusting Russian nationalist and warmonger) or by the Russians (for his public criticisms of Putin for allegedly being "too soft" on Ukraine)?

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb

"Japan Breaks With U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap"



Japan always had exceptions concerning the oil cap anyway so this is merely expanding that non-compliance.  What is funny is that in the 2022 Upper House elections Kishida campaigned on the oil cap as the way to reduce energy inflation in Japan. And now he is breaking that cap anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb

"Japan Breaks With U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap"



Japan always had exceptions concerning the oil cap anyway so this is merely expanding that non-compliance.  What is funny is that in the 2022 Upper House elections Kishida campaigned on the oil cap as the way to reduce energy inflation in Japan. And now he is breaking that cap anyway.

I guess this speaks to the (potential) direness of the energy situation in Japan.

[Red Velvet]

Ouch. Even G7 nations don’t follow the standards they set themselves through their own media propaganda, how the hell they expect others to take them seriously? Germany “sanctioning” has also always been a joke.

Under BRICS leadership, economic matters will finally stop being used as a political matter. World needs a currency that’s stable and that countries don’t feel it can be turned against them out of nowhere by third parties backlash. Western nationalists can cry but the future is with globalization and you cannot reverse it whenever you feel it’s not convenient for you anymore.