Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%     +3.0%           +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%     +3.0%          +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%

CPI for 2022 mostly locked in.  2022 GDP UK and Eurozone adjusted upward while 2022 GDP Japan got adjusted downward.  For 2023 Russia went up a lot and is converging toward the IMF projection of actual economic growth.  USA Eurozone UK and PRC 2023 GDP prospects went up while Japan went down.

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from Feb 2023 calculation)
Russia      -7.7% (+0.7%)
Eurozone  -2.6% (+0.2%)
USA         -3.2% (+0.2%)
UK           -3.4% (+0.4%)
PRC          -2.1% (+0.1%)
Japan       -2.4% (-0.2%)

The most recent banking issues in US and Eurozone might mean these numbers might be too positive for them but if that were the case we will see these averages change over the coming months.  The Russia economic story relative to what was expected continue to brighten even as the same is taking place to a smaller extent in the collective West as well.

[jaichind]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

It might if Germany (or whoever else was sending some Leopard 1's) were at at war with Russia.

So, if Germany were at war with Russia, and all their Leopard 2's had been destroyed and they were forced to rely on pulling out old Leopard 1's, yes, that would be a sign that Germany might be losing.

But that's not what's happening here, is it?

I would argue that it is even worse.  At least Russia is using old tanks that fit with their tank doctrine  and consistent with their logical/repair/spare parts system.  Ukraine is taking old tanks that do not even fit with their tank doctrine. The latter, just looking at this specific case, seems more desperate.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The leopard 1 is still an active tank so I don’t know how that’s an equivalent of the dinosaurs that we’re seeing Russia bring out of retirement

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I would argue that it is even worse.  At least Russia is using old tanks that fit with their tank doctrine  and consistent with their logical/repair/spare parts system.  Ukraine is taking old tanks that do not even fit with their tank doctrine. The latter, just looking at this specific case, seems more desperate.

That's a pretty uninformed take.

First of all, Leopard 1s are a heck of a lot better than T-55s (or frankly, even the last remnants of relatively more modern stuff that Russia still has left), and some properly used Leopard 1's can and will wipe the floor with hot ex-Soviet garbage, as you will see in the coming months.

Fortunately for you, you are only a Putinist keyboard commando, not a Russian soldier in a trench, so you won't be the one finding out the hard way.

Secondly, the reason why Ukraine has been given Leopard 1's and 2s is not because there is any shortage of other more modern tanks that could be given, but rather it is because it was thought to be better for Ukraine to get Leopard tanks rather than just giving Ukraine a bunch of M-1 Abrams. There are some good technical reasons for that, most importantly that the Abrams uses a jet engine which is very different from the diesel engines which the Leopard uses, which is much more similar to the diesel engines Ukraine's current ex-Soviet tanks use, and with which Ukrainian mechanics are familiar. And in addition to using a jet engine, the Abrams requires prodigious amounts of fuel.

Additionally, the plan earlier on was to give Ukraine Leopards so that European countries could give Ukraine some tanks rather than having the USA provide 100% of the tanks, while USA would have provided other non-tank AFVs that better fit the requirements of Ukrainian logistics (Bradleys, Strykers, etc).

However, at this point Ukraine is also getting M-1 Abrams, because this was politically necessary to get Scholz to feel comfortable with allowing Leopards to be sent. And even if European countries totally 100% run out of Leopards to give, I can promise you that there is no way we are going to run out of M-1 Abrams that can be given to Ukraine.

Here is a video showing you what we have sitting there idly at the Sierra Army Depot, most of which could be patched up and shipped off to Ukraine if actually needed:

If you spend the 1 minute watching that video, it should be abundantly clear that Ukraine is not going to run out of AFVs even if this war lasts decades.

The US military did not lose a single M-1 Abrams tank to enemy fire in the 1991 gulf war. NOT A SINGLE ONE!!! This is despite those all being models which are now 30 years old, while Russia is currently using equivalent models to what the Iraqi's were using in 1991.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medina_Ridge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Norfolk

So I think Ukraine will fare just fine if we simply give them even comparatively small numbers of M-1s from our absurdly massive stockpile. And if we were to give them a larger quantity from that stockpile, well... let's leave that to the imagination. If you disagree, I hope you enjoy being wrong (it does seem like you do), because you are going to be proven very wrong indeed.

And tbh, if we really wanted we could probably not even bother sending any more M-1s than the ones already announced, and just send old M-60s instead, and those would also obliterate anything that Russia could throw against them with comparatively low losses.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

Lawmakers from the pro-Russia, far-right Freedom Party (FPO) walked out of the lower house of Austria’s parliament on Thursday 30 March during a speech by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Nazi agents of Nazi Putin, as usual.

[Logical]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/austria-zelensky-russia-ukraine-war-b2311579.html

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

They are more normally described as the FPO. And I doubt if it will worry Zelensky much.

Oops, typo by me.  I do think it is meaningful that the party in Austria that is currently polling as the largest party right now is not afraid of blowback in terms of public support by doing this.  I suspect this time last year they would be too intimidated to do this.

Are you telling me that the party who made this woman foreign minister wasn't always going to that?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Leopard 1 is a second-generation main battle tank produced from the mid-60s onwards, with its closest Russian equivalent generally considered to be the T-62.

The T-54/-55 Russia is bringing out of storage now are first-generation main battle tanks produced from the mid-40s onwards.

In short, while the Leopard 1 is old, the T-54/-55 is ancient.

I don't know much training jaichind requires each day to perform the mental gymnastics he does here.

[jaichind]

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

Lawmakers from the pro-Russia, far-right Freedom Party (FPO) walked out of the lower house of Austria’s parliament on Thursday 30 March during a speech by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Nazi agents of Nazi Putin, as usual.

This party is polling the highest of all parties currently in Austria

[pppolitics]

We’re entering April, Bakmut still hasn’t fallen, most on the ground assessments is it actually won’t fall after all, Russia has made practically no changes to the line since last year yet Woodbury says Ukraine is “barley holding the line”? 🙄

Woodbury is probably just one of the personas of the Internet Research Agency.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1641961316914020359?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/austria-zelensky-russia-ukraine-war-b2311579.html

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

They are more normally described as the FPO. And I doubt if it will worry Zelensky much.

Oops, typo by me.  I do think it is meaningful that the party in Austria that is currently polling as the largest party right now is not afraid of blowback in terms of public support by doing this.  I suspect this time last year they would be too intimidated to do this.

Are you telling me that the party who made this woman foreign minister wasn't always going to that?

That second photo reminds me of that famouse quote from President Bush Jr: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy," ... "I was able to get a sense of his soul."

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This party is polling the highest of all parties currently in Austria

This means that Austria is becoming as pro-Russian and crypto-fascist as its old comrade Hungary.

By the way, the Austrian special service killed a Kazakh oppositionist in 2015 right in Vienna.

[NOVA Green]

WSJ naturally has an exclusive article today in the news industry where generally the owners and professional standards are reticent to "cover their own stories".

Unfortunately I have to be careful about excessive posting and this particular newspaper has higher paywall restrictions than most others, so if interested but don't have the bread for an online subscription either grab a paper copy today or enroll for a discounted one month trial.

The cellphone was no longer pinging. The last time Wall Street Journal staff heard from Evan Gershkovich was Wednesday, just before 4 p.m., when he had arrived at a steakhouse in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. It was the Russia correspondent’s second trip to the Ural mountains in a month.

Hours later, the Journal newsroom was scrambling to reach contacts in Yekaterinburg, Moscow and Washington. A vague post on the Russian messaging service Telegram reported that security agents had taken a diner from a Yekaterinburg steakhouse with his hood up.

Mr. Gershkovich, 31 years old, is the American son of Soviet-born Jewish exiles who had settled in New Jersey. He fell in love with Russia—its language, the people he chatted with for hours in regional capitals, the punk bands he hung out with at Moscow dive bars. Now, espionage charges leave him facing a possible prison sentence of up to 20 years.

Mr. Gershkovich’s fascination with Russia stemmed from his earliest years speaking Russian at home in New York and New Jersey.

When his mother, Ella, was 22, she fled the Soviet Union using Israeli documents. She was whisked across the Iron Curtain by her own mother, a Ukrainian nurse and Holocaust survivor who would weep when she talked about the survivors of extermination camps she treated at a Polish military hospital at the end of World War II. Before fleeing, they heard rumors that Soviet Jews were about to be deported to Siberia.

Mr. Gershkovich’s father, Mikhail, also left the Soviet Union as part of the same Jewish migration wave. The two met in Detroit then moved to New Jersey where Evan and his elder sister, Dusya, grew up.

Arriving in Russia, he joined the Moscow Times, an English-language paper that, though struggling, had long been a training ground for some of the most high-profile Russia correspondents. Mr. Gershkovich joined a team of young journalists who breathed life into the newsroom. “He loved Russia and he wanted to report from here,” said Pjotr Sauer, a Moscow Times colleague now at the Guardian.

Mrs. Gershkovich said this period made her son more interested in his Russian and Jewish roots. One day, decades after the fall of Communism, she took him to a building that she had been afraid to visit as a teenager: a synagogue. She had been told that anybody entering it would be photographed and detained by the secret service.

“That’s when Evan started to understand us better,” she said. Mr. Gershkovich’s father and sister later visited Moscow, and together they visited its new Jewish Museum.

All right that's all I will post, but there is tons more and one must certainly wonder if part of the reason for these trumped up charges might be not for a potential prisoner exchange with a recently arrested Russian agent,  because Mr. Gershkovich, as a 1st generation child of the Russian diaspora, represented more the perspective of liberal democracy at a time when he first started reporting from Russia, Putin was already tightening the screws.

What if Mr. Putin's ill advised foray into Ukraine had less to do with keeping the former Soviet Republics in line, preventing the spread of NATO (and EU membership) Eastwards, but rather to ensure that the Russian people would stand in line and not rebel against the regime?

Was Gershkovich selected because he was Jewish in a country with a long history of various regimes using Anti-Semitic coded language and purges?

Regardless of the motivations for this, it is patently clear that Russia is now looking more like North Korea than even Iraq when it comes to the treatment of journalists.

Russia already has an extremely poor record when it comes to the treatment of their own journalists compared to many other countries, with (58) Russian journalists killed since '92 and (38) as a direct result of their professional activities.

(21) of these deaths have occurred since Putin first took power in 2000.

https://www.iwmf.org/2021/10/russia-ranked-10th-in-the-global-impunity-index-for-the-killings-of-journalists/

Regardless, Russia increasingly appears to be a regime where any foreign journalist is in the crosshairs, especially if they might file reports viewed as critical of the current regime.






https://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-reporter-evan-gershkovich-detained-russia-cd03b0f3

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1641880669348417550
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641924453205434368
Pretty much confirming the previous reports of the flanks being stabilized as well

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

What if Mr. Putin's ill advised foray into Ukraine had less to do with keeping the former Soviet Republics in line, preventing the spread of NATO (and EU membership) Eastwards, but rather to ensure that the Russian people would stand in line and not rebel against the regime?

Tightening the screws is not a cause, but a consequence. A consequence of Putin being an agent of the Chinese National Communists, intent on weakening Russia enough to make it a weak-willed Chinese puppet like the impoverished DPRK. And anyone with enough sense to see this betrayal becomes Putin's personal enemy. Like this journalist who loves Russia, for example.

[Storr]

Rest of tweet: "...her grandkids. The spoons were returned to her."

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1642100949131964416?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1641961316914020359?s=20

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1641972647029358592?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/ukraine-victory-unlikely-year-milley-says/384681/

"Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says"



To be fair I do not think either side can look forward to "victory" this year.  It will be a long grid where it will be a struggle of political will and productive capacity.  There is plenty of fight for both sides on those grounds.

[Woody]

Belarusian member and veteran of "Tornado". A battalion which infamously fought in Donetsk from 2014 and was convicted of crimes (including torture) in Donbass at that time, was killed in Bakhmut yesterday.

https://uacrisis.org/en/55087-need-know-case-former-tornado-battalion-servicemen

https://twitter.com/NAFOFella66/status/1642142387886489603

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/LoTus01132239/status/1641815491370000384

[Hindsight was 2020]

Happy April everyone and would you look at that Bakmut still holds 🇺🇦

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Is this not just Pilsudski's intermarium?

[lfromnj]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Is this not just Pilsudski's intermarium?

Yeah thats what I was thinking as well.

[2952-0-0]

Are there any concessions with Taiwan to Xi to make him order Piglet to end the war immediately?

It's funny that there's a meme where Putin becomes Piglet to Xi being Winnie. It wasn't long ago that then-Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam was being compared to Piglet.

https://hongkongfp.com/2018/10/23/satirist-compares-xi-jinping-hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam-winnie-pooh-piglet/

What if Mr. Putin's ill advised foray into Ukraine had less to do with keeping the former Soviet Republics in line, preventing the spread of NATO (and EU membership) Eastwards, but rather to ensure that the Russian people would stand in line and not rebel against the regime?

Tightening the screws is not a cause, but a consequence. A consequence of Putin being an agent of the Chinese National Communists, intent on weakening Russia enough to make it a weak-willed Chinese puppet like the impoverished DPRK. And anyone with enough sense to see this betrayal becomes Putin's personal enemy. Like this journalist who loves Russia, for example.

The idea that Putin will become Beijing's puppet is too simplified and doesn't capture the required nuance. The problem remains that, the stability of Putin's regime isn't dependent on whatever foreign assistance he might receive - if it falls into crisis, then I don't think any amount of aid from abroad can save him.

Also, do not, do not, do not underestimate the internal dynamics within the CCP. The CCP was traumatized by the events of 1989-91, and did plenty of internal debate on their significance. The consensus that emerged was that one-party rule could be sustained by giving its Party elite opportunities to enrich themselves, and give the people just enough to be thankful for the Party. However, this consensus began to fray by the late 2000s, as the corruption within the Party was eroding its discipline (you can Google "second-generation reds" for some insight). Also, by then, China's economy had evolved to the point that further economic reforms that would enrich the nation as a whole would damage the interests of the Party elite.

Xi Jinping personally is also known to have been obsessed with studying the Soviet collapse. Soon after he became General Secretary, he very publicly made a secret speech about how the Soviet Union fell apart because its Party members had lost interest in the ideology. He especially mentioned how the Soviet military lacked the ability to execute the August 1991 coup due to a lack of support. His actions since then, and increasingly his own words, indicate that he views less economic growth and even conflict with the western-aligned powers as a necessary price to pay to maintain the Party's hegemony at home. There has been a steady stream of murmurs of discontent from within the Party elite, but they were quietly voiced to western media outlets.

What does this mean to Putin and Russia in the present time? It's clear that Xi Jinping views Putin's job security as tied to his own. If Putin were to fall from a window, or just become little more than a warlord controlling the Moscow region, that would be a huge psychological blow to the CCP's morale. Everyone from the second-generation reds to the millions of Party apparatchiks would see this as a gross failure of his judgment. To be sure, such an event would probably not be enough to force Xi from power, let alone cause the Party to fall apart - I don't even think the CCP is guaranteed to fall apart if it tries to take Taiwan and is defeated. But, it's clear that Xi thinks he can't let Putin fail. The trouble is, Putin's regime is too complex and too big to bail out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/ukraine-victory-unlikely-year-milley-says/384681/

"Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says"



To be fair I do not think either side can look forward to "victory" this year.  It will be a long grid where it will be a struggle of political will and productive capacity.  There is plenty of fight for both sides on those grounds.

It's almost impossible to end a war unless both sides want it to end. The vast majority of conflicts end with some kind of negotiated settlement, and this one will probably be no exception. Unfortunately Putin still seems deluded into thinking he can take over all of Ukraine (or else he's become so nihilistic that he's decided he's okay with a forever war that bleeds the Russian people dry). This means that the war will only end in the foreseeable future if Putin comes to his senses or is removed from power. Barring that, both sides have the means to make it last for many years. In the long run, one of the two will run out of material capacity to continue fighting, and which one does first depends on whether Western support continues as it has for the past year. This is why it's crucial to start educating Western public opinions that we have to be in this for the long haul, and we shouldn't expect a swift and decisive victory but rather a slow attrition war. Milley is doing the right thing by discussing this openly.