Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1641480851811708949?s=20

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1641470032071753732?s=20

[oldtimer]

For the first time since The Deluge, there is an argument to be made that Poland is becoming a major military power in Europe and exceeds Germany in total military potential.  They are no longer the prey of Teuton but a hunter themselves.

What did you expect ?

German industrial investment in Poland has been very large over 30 years now, and they got Silesia which was Prussia's industrial heartland.

They hate the russians and the germans, but are currently at war with the russians over what both sides consider to be their historical territory.

So of course Poland will always be in conflict with Russia over control of Ukraine, and Poland has dragged NATO and the EU in it and always will, it was all inevitable since 1999.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1641480851811708949?s=20

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1641470032071753732?s=20

To put this in perspective, a US journalist hasn't been arrested in Russia since U.S. News & World Report correspondent Nick Daniloff in 1986.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1641414099476045826?s=20

[Storr]

Who could have predicted pardoning murderers would have led to more murders?

Rest of tweet: "...before he was supposed to return to the front.

Responding to incident, Wagner Group head Evgeny Prigozhin has emphasized the low recidivism rate among returning mercenaries. Just 20 felonies committed by a few thousand veterans! I guess this is the 21st."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1641468958623649792?s=20

[Storr]

On the lighter side of things:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640395972529340425?s=20

It happened again:

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1641075766921142275?s=20

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1641323247454023682?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-group-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-sends-audio-message-to-the-daily-beast

"Wagner Boss Prigozhin Sends a Very Weird Audio Message to The Daily Beast"

This seems to be the entire transcript

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-group-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-sends-audio-message-to-the-daily-beast

"Wagner Boss Prigozhin Sends a Very Weird Audio Message to The Daily Beast"

This seems to be the entire transcript

God it’s going to be satisfying when Ukraine partisans blow this guy up in his car

[NYDem]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

[dead0man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

I don't.

I trust the guys who are there on the ground saying it's way past time to leave.

sure, they know more than you or me, but they don't know more than the intel guys, because how could they?  Also, the men on the ground are never, ever the ones that make strategic decisions and it would be stupid army that let them.

[NOVA Green]

It's official, Finland will be joining NATO with the last roadblock cleared.

Putin's elective invasion and occupation of Ukraine has effectively caused the opposite result of what he was attempting to stop.... the expansion of NATO closer to borders with Russia.

Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.

With Turkey’s ratification, Finland now faces only paperwork to become a NATO member. There will be an exchange of letters and the filing of Finland’s accession documents, already complete, with the State Department in Washington. The United States serves as the depository of NATO under the alliance’s founding treaty.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

[Virginiá]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports


[...]

Even if that is true (I'd like to see that verified in some way), it doesn't change the fact that the reason it's even necessary in the first place is because Russia has lost thousands of tanks due to the poor training of their army. And this started with their "professional" army and accelerated once the even more poorly trained mobiks diluted all those units hollowed out by the losses of their experienced soldiers (and tankers) by over a year of brutal, grinding combat.

Columns of T-90M tanks repeatedly blitzing well-defended minefields in Vulhedar are not going to fare better than ones of T-72B3s or a -T80BV.s Nor will 1 - 2 T-90Ms with little-to-no infantry or air support assaulting entrenched Ukrainian units with numerous anti-tank weapons. Russia had so many substantial materiel advantages for much of this war and they are in this position because they frittered it away with one bad decision after another. The RuAF is capable of adapting in some ways but the increasing loss of experience and training in the army is not likely to see new tanks used any better than the destroyed hulls they are replacing.

[Dereich]

It's official, Finland will be joining NATO with the last roadblock cleared.

Putin's elective invasion and occupation of Ukraine has effectively caused the opposite result of what he was attempting to stop.... the expansion of NATO closer to borders with Russia.

Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.

With Turkey’s ratification, Finland now faces only paperwork to become a NATO member. There will be an exchange of letters and the filing of Finland’s accession documents, already complete, with the State Department in Washington. The United States serves as the depository of NATO under the alliance’s founding treaty.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is only true if NATO's expansion is actually a thing that Russia is concerned about as opposed to a thing they like to use as an excuse to justify their aggression. Since an unjustified war of conquest against Ukraine, even if it had been successful, would give a fraying and aimless NATO a new purpose to exist there is no reason to believe that that is actually something that Russia worries about.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Are there any concessions with Taiwan to Xi to make him order Piglet to end the war immediately?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1641581644082454528?s=20

[jaichind]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

[Woody]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah, either way Ukraine has a disastrous demographic future. Russia is replacing it's losses & has a net positive due to it's annexations, Ukrainian refugees/deportations, and some migrations from the CIS countries. Ukraine even has a lower fertility rate than Japan.

According to the UN, (As of October, 2022) at least 3 million Ukrainians are in the Russian Federation, and that's not counting the territories Russia controls in Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).

[jaichind]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah, either way Ukraine has a disastrous demographic future. Russia is replacing it's losses & has a net positive due to it's annexations, Ukrainian refugees/deportations, and some migrations from the CIS countries. Ukraine even has a lower fertility rate than Japan.

According to the UN, (As of October, 2022) at least 3 million Ukrainians are in the Russian Federation, and that's not counting the territories Russia controls in Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).

Since all the  3 million Ukrainians in Russia must be there against their will the scale of the Russian concentration camps to lock up these 3 million Ukrainians must rival what took place in WWII in terms of the scale of mobilization of manpower.  Perhaps that is what the mobilized Russian troops are doing?

[GoTfan]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

It's not even that brilliant of a tank to begin with.

Again, Lazerpig Loop.

[jaichind]

https://thenewsdept.com/trending/244533.html

"London gallery to remove famous painting by Van Eyck due to the character’s resemblance to the president of the Russian Federation"

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/austria-zelensky-russia-ukraine-war-b2311579.html

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah, either way Ukraine has a disastrous demographic future. Russia is replacing it's losses & has a net positive due to it's annexations, Ukrainian refugees/deportations, and some migrations from the CIS countries. Ukraine even has a lower fertility rate than Japan.

According to the UN, (As of October, 2022) at least 3 million Ukrainians are in the Russian Federation, and that's not counting the territories Russia controls in Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).

You can't annex your way to a good birthrate. (At least not in Europe)

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's official, Finland will be joining NATO with the last roadblock cleared.

Putin's elective invasion and occupation of Ukraine has effectively caused the opposite result of what he was attempting to stop.... the expansion of NATO closer to borders with Russia.

Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.

With Turkey’s ratification, Finland now faces only paperwork to become a NATO member. There will be an exchange of letters and the filing of Finland’s accession documents, already complete, with the State Department in Washington. The United States serves as the depository of NATO under the alliance’s founding treaty.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is only true if NATO's expansion is actually a thing that Russia is concerned about as opposed to a thing they like to use as an excuse to justify their aggression. Since an unjustified war of conquest against Ukraine, even if it had been successful, would give a fraying and aimless NATO a new purpose to exist there is no reason to believe that that is actually something that Russia worries about.

Well, we know from Putin's own speech that his ultimate goal is the restoration of the Russian Empire, of which Finland was part. If Finland hadn't joined NATO and in a world where Putin actually manages to take over Ukraine (which of course we know he won't, but I'm sure he thinks he can) it's not too crazy to imagine him setting his sight on Finland eventually. Now that it's a NATO member, that door is probably closed unless Putin has really lost his marbles. Ukraine is as far as he'll go unless he wants direct war with the West.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It's official, Finland will be joining NATO with the last roadblock cleared.

Putin's elective invasion and occupation of Ukraine has effectively caused the opposite result of what he was attempting to stop.... the expansion of NATO closer to borders with Russia.

Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.

With Turkey’s ratification, Finland now faces only paperwork to become a NATO member. There will be an exchange of letters and the filing of Finland’s accession documents, already complete, with the State Department in Washington. The United States serves as the depository of NATO under the alliance’s founding treaty.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is only true if NATO's expansion is actually a thing that Russia is concerned about as opposed to a thing they like to use as an excuse to justify their aggression. Since an unjustified war of conquest against Ukraine, even if it had been successful, would give a fraying and aimless NATO a new purpose to exist there is no reason to believe that that is actually something that Russia worries about.

Well, we know from Putin's own speech that his ultimate goal is the restoration of the Russian Empire, of which Finland was part. If Finland hadn't joined NATO and in a world where Putin actually manages to take over Ukraine (which of course we know he won't, but I'm sure he thinks he can) it's not too crazy to imagine him setting his sight on Finland eventually. Now that it's a NATO member, that door is probably closed unless Putin has really lost his marbles. Ukraine is as far as he'll go unless he wants direct war with the West.

Moldova

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's official, Finland will be joining NATO with the last roadblock cleared.

Putin's elective invasion and occupation of Ukraine has effectively caused the opposite result of what he was attempting to stop.... the expansion of NATO closer to borders with Russia.

Finland won final approval on Thursday to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia that was set off by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey’s Parliament, in a session that went deep into the night, cast the last vote needed for Finland’s entry into NATO, greatly enlarging the alliance’s border with Russia in a strategic defeat for its president, Vladimir V. Putin. In invading Ukraine last year, he made it clear that he was intent on blocking NATO’s eastward expansion.

With Turkey’s ratification, Finland now faces only paperwork to become a NATO member. There will be an exchange of letters and the filing of Finland’s accession documents, already complete, with the State Department in Washington. The United States serves as the depository of NATO under the alliance’s founding treaty.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is only true if NATO's expansion is actually a thing that Russia is concerned about as opposed to a thing they like to use as an excuse to justify their aggression. Since an unjustified war of conquest against Ukraine, even if it had been successful, would give a fraying and aimless NATO a new purpose to exist there is no reason to believe that that is actually something that Russia worries about.

Well, we know from Putin's own speech that his ultimate goal is the restoration of the Russian Empire, of which Finland was part. If Finland hadn't joined NATO and in a world where Putin actually manages to take over Ukraine (which of course we know he won't, but I'm sure he thinks he can) it's not too crazy to imagine him setting his sight on Finland eventually. Now that it's a NATO member, that door is probably closed unless Putin has really lost his marbles. Ukraine is as far as he'll go unless he wants direct war with the West.

Moldova

Lmao fair. I keep hoping that Sandu will call on Ukraine to clear out the Transnistrian rebels for her and then apply to join NATO. That would be the cleanest solution here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1641769296631087109