Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20525 on: March 29, 2023, 06:10:18 PM »

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."



Is that his training or mental illness?

It's just his tendency to procrastinate. Any realistic end to the war represents a shift from the status quo which carries a risk to his position as president. He may prefer to simply run the clock until he dies or a much more favourable outcome somehow presents itself.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #20526 on: March 29, 2023, 06:42:12 PM »

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."



Is that his training or mental illness?

It's just his tendency to procrastinate. Any realistic end to the war represents a shift from the status quo which carries a risk to his position as president. He may prefer to simply run the clock until he dies or a much more favourable outcome somehow presents itself.

I've personally believed for a while that while Putin initially wanted to blitzkrieg Ukraine, his failure to do so made him shift the purpose of the war from a means to an end, to as an end to itself. It now exists just for his own power, with whatever happening in the Donbass or Zaporizhzhia unimportant. Even if the Russians are pushed back to the pre-2014 borders, Putin will continue the "special military operation", which would consist of a steady stream of skirmishes along the border that are staged for performative purposes. Maybe he will also order "Ukrainian" missile strikes against apartment blocks inside Russia, like what occurred shortly before he came to power. But he doesn't need to "win" the war in order to achieve his objectives.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20527 on: March 29, 2023, 08:33:06 PM »

Germany moving towards long term military aid to Ukraine:

Quote
In Germany, a parliamentary panel passed a spending bill on Wednesday that includes 8 billion euros — about $8.6 billion — in military aid to Ukraine to be spent over the next decade for weapons, munitions and supplies to help it defend itself against Russia.

Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, called the aid package “a very, very important step to show how serious we are about our long-term commitment to Ukraine in their fight against Putin.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/europe/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-fighting.html
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20528 on: March 29, 2023, 09:13:09 PM »

Luke Skywalker has a new role in the existential struggle occurring after the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Alerting residents of incoming Russian air based attacks:

Quote
Mark Hamill, best known as Luke Skywalker from the Star Wars movies, has lent his famous voice to a popular Ukrainian air raid alert app, joining a growing list of celebrities to support the embattled nation.

“Attention. Air raid alert,” Hamill’s voice booms when the country’s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: “Don’t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,” a nod to a Skywalker line from “Return of the Jedi.”

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: “May the force be with you.”

The app is available for users on Apple and Android devices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/mark-hamill-ukraine-air-raid-alert/
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #20529 on: March 29, 2023, 09:59:06 PM »


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The Mikado
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« Reply #20530 on: March 29, 2023, 10:14:18 PM »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

More to the point, it included Belarus (and modern Belarus was in fact basically the heart of the old Grand Duchy of Lithuania half of the union)
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jfern
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« Reply #20531 on: March 29, 2023, 10:26:03 PM »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

If you want to unite two countries in that area of the world, Moldova joining Romania and Kosovo joining Albania would make more sense.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #20532 on: March 29, 2023, 11:12:26 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2023, 11:20:42 PM by All Along The Watchtower »

Maybe he will also order "Ukrainian" missile strikes against apartment blocks inside Russia, like what occurred shortly before he came to power.

I love how this was so much more plausibly a false-flag terrorist attack than 9/11. And yet 9/11 Truthers tend also to believe and repeat Kremlin propaganda. Go figure.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20533 on: March 29, 2023, 11:55:54 PM »

Luke Skywalker has a new role in the existential struggle occurring after the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Alerting residents of incoming Russian air based attacks:

Quote
Mark Hamill, best known as Luke Skywalker from the Star Wars movies, has lent his famous voice to a popular Ukrainian air raid alert app, joining a growing list of celebrities to support the embattled nation.

“Attention. Air raid alert,” Hamill’s voice booms when the country’s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: “Don’t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,” a nod to a Skywalker line from “Return of the Jedi.”

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: “May the force be with you.”

The app is available for users on Apple and Android devices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/mark-hamill-ukraine-air-raid-alert/
That's nice of him.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20534 on: March 30, 2023, 01:45:11 AM »

Luke Skywalker has a new role in the existential struggle occurring after the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Alerting residents of incoming Russian air based attacks:

Quote
Mark Hamill, best known as Luke Skywalker from the Star Wars movies, has lent his famous voice to a popular Ukrainian air raid alert app, joining a growing list of celebrities to support the embattled nation.

“Attention. Air raid alert,” Hamill’s voice booms when the country’s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: “Don’t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,” a nod to a Skywalker line from “Return of the Jedi.”

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: “May the force be with you.”

The app is available for users on Apple and Android devices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/mark-hamill-ukraine-air-raid-alert/
That's nice of him.

Well tbf Jedi's and Hobbits tend to have a much greater cultural relevance within post Soviet Bloc countries, as well as former republics of the USSR, than many other parts of the world.

Not quite sure what you meant by that, but it's not like he can donate massive amounts of gear like that crazy Elon Musk dude who is really just a shameless self promotor.

Where's your Beef Tim?
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jaichind
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« Reply #20535 on: March 30, 2023, 04:04:16 AM »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

More to the point, it included Belarus (and modern Belarus was in fact basically the heart of the old Grand Duchy of Lithuania half of the union)

Completely True. All the more reason for Belorus to step up its militarization given the recent Polish plans to grow its military.  The long-term ambitions of Poland toward the East are clear.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20536 on: March 30, 2023, 04:29:18 AM »

For the first time since The Deluge, there is an argument to be made that Poland is becoming a major military power in Europe and exceeds Germany in total military potential.  They are no longer the prey of Teuton but a hunter themselves.
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jaichind
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« Reply #20537 on: March 30, 2023, 05:56:14 AM »

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/03/29/su-35-changes-the-balance-kyiv-cannot-counter-a-ukrainian-official/

"Su-35 changes the balance, Kyiv cannot counter – a Ukrainian official"
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dead0man
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« Reply #20538 on: March 30, 2023, 06:00:59 AM »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #20539 on: March 30, 2023, 07:49:40 AM »

Maybe he will also order "Ukrainian" missile strikes against apartment blocks inside Russia, like what occurred shortly before he came to power.

I love how this was so much more plausibly a false-flag terrorist attack than 9/11. And yet 9/11 Truthers tend also to believe and repeat Kremlin propaganda. Go figure.

Of course they do, a central tenet of such people is that "the West" is responsible for literally all evil in the world - and everybody else are just helpless puppets with no agency of their own whatsoever.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20540 on: March 30, 2023, 08:27:55 AM »

Luke Skywalker has a new role in the existential struggle occurring after the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Alerting residents of incoming Russian air based attacks:

Quote
Mark Hamill, best known as Luke Skywalker from the Star Wars movies, has lent his famous voice to a popular Ukrainian air raid alert app, joining a growing list of celebrities to support the embattled nation.

“Attention. Air raid alert,” Hamill’s voice booms when the country’s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: “Don’t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,” a nod to a Skywalker line from “Return of the Jedi.”

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: “May the force be with you.”

The app is available for users on Apple and Android devices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/mark-hamill-ukraine-air-raid-alert/
That's nice of him.

Well tbf Jedi's and Hobbits tend to have a much greater cultural relevance within post Soviet Bloc countries, as well as former republics of the USSR, than many other parts of the world.

Not quite sure what you meant by that, but it's not like he can donate massive amounts of gear like that crazy Elon Musk dude who is really just a shameless self promotor.

Where's your Beef Tim?
I was being laconic. I fully intended that. There was no irony or satire involved in that statement on my part.
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Cassius
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« Reply #20541 on: March 30, 2023, 09:07:32 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 09:13:17 AM by Cassius »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
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Torie
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« Reply #20542 on: March 30, 2023, 09:24:01 AM »





General Millay's comment that the Russians are getting hammered in al slaughter fest on several fronts, not just Bakhmut, apparently inspired the press to publish a spat of stories  in a variation of the same theme as if in a well crafted symphonic score:


Ukrainians Directing Soldiers From a Hidden Hub See Bakhmut Going Their Way says the headline in the NYT, which this awesome photo of a command post near the front with a battery of computer screens of the Bakhmut slaughter scene is one variation:

Ukrainian commanders say they have exhausted Russia’s relentless assaults on the eastern city, though soldiers say the cost in lives has been steep.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/todayspaper/ukraine-bakhmut-russia.html

Perhaps the supply of cannon fodder is running low (see below), is another recapitulation as the front as the front quiets down: 

"Ukrainian and Western officials point to signs that Russia's campaign is flagging. The average number of daily Russian attacks on the front line reported by Ukraine's general staff has declined almost by half over the past four weeks."

 https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-sees-russian-progress-eastern-frontline-city-bakhmut-2023-03-29/

Wagner chief admits Bakhmut battle has 'battered' his army

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/03/30/russia-wagner-at-odds-with-putin-chance-pkg-ebof-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn

The culmination  is this from the NYT:

“As some other commanders have noted, there are weaknesses and gaps in the Russian defenses. “The same way they can encircle us, they can also be encircled by us if we pierce their defense at any place,” Mr. Filimonov said.

‘The Russians realize the danger themselves, he said, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company, which is doing much of the fighting at Bakhmut, publicly warned of the danger in a video post as he called for more military support for his own forces.

“If Wagner PMC rolls back, then the following situation will happen in history,” he said in early March. “It is clear that the front will crumble. The front will crumble to the Russian borders, or maybe further.”

‘Colonel Mezhevikin said there were still strong Russian divisions guarding the critical points of defense but that regular Russian army units lacked morale and were easier to break. “It’s easier to fight them. They are running away,” he said.”

The only thing keeping the house of cards standing at all is the way Wagner motivates its troops in a way that apparently the regular army of Russia cannot:

“But Wagner units, which include convicts, were threatened with physical punishment if they retreated, which made them tougher opponents, he said. “They are scared to give up and to leave positions,” he explained. “They prefer to die here.”

Who knew that the last bit of glue for the card house was cleaning out the prisons for cannon fodder? Wars can be full of surprises.






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NYDem
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« Reply #20543 on: March 30, 2023, 10:44:27 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 10:47:38 AM by NYDem »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What “massive failure” in Ukraine intelligence was there? American intelligence called the time of the invasion down to the hour, all while (most) European intelligence agencies didn’t believe that an invasion would happen at all. The Ukrainian leadership  didn’t even seem to think one was likely until within 24 hours of the attack, after we told them repeatedly.
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dead0man
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« Reply #20544 on: March 30, 2023, 10:51:01 AM »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
you're only remembering the failures and you're more likely to hear about the failures in the first place.  US intel did correctly predict when Russia was going to invade, to the day (if not hour).  Russian apologists where saying it wasn't going to happen until the moment it happened, since then they've been suggesting Ukraine should capitulate.  Clearly US def intel knows more than a Russian stooge does with regards to the current situation in Ukraine.

or, on preview, what NYDem just said.
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Torie
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« Reply #20545 on: March 30, 2023, 11:17:40 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 04:43:46 PM by Torie »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
you're only remembering the failures and you're more likely to hear about the failures in the first place.  US intel did correctly predict when Russia was going to invade, to the day (if not hour).  Russian apologists where saying it wasn't going to happen until the moment it happened, since then they've been suggesting Ukraine should capitulate.  Clearly US def intel knows more than a Russian stooge does with regards to the current situation in Ukraine.

or, on preview, what NYDem just said.

Actually in the final days Zelensky accepted that the invasion was happening, and took substantial preemptive action, in accordance with UK and US advice, which was key to saving both Kiev and his life from the planned Russian quick kill lightening strike and seizure of the airport by Russian paratroopers (who instead were all killed by Ukrainian soldiers laying in wait).  Zelensky did not publicize the invasion, to avoid panic in the population. 60 minutes had a lengthy documentary on the topic which was quite fascinating. Zelensky, as with most matters in this war, handled matters very well - calmly and with guts. Zelensky's  video of him and his cabinet all staying in Kiev to the nation was also pre-planned.

My impression is that Zelensky in the conduct of this war very closely coordinates with the US and the UK, and their advice, and with their intelligence, including in particular the decision to hang on in Bahkmut. Zelensky did not go rogue there. The events of the past few days suggest that perhaps that was the right decision. By design, it is not publicized just how deeply enmeshed the three nations are on a day to day, indeed hourly by hourly basis, in the conduct of this war, but they are. I also think that much of the Ukraine targeting is provided from US and UK surveillance assets.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #20546 on: March 30, 2023, 12:21:03 PM »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.
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Cassius
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« Reply #20547 on: March 30, 2023, 12:28:30 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 12:56:30 PM by Cassius »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate the fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.
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Woody
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« Reply #20548 on: March 30, 2023, 12:47:53 PM »

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

Quote
The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”
Quote
As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.
Quote
One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."
Quote
The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #20549 on: March 30, 2023, 12:48:11 PM »



bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.
What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate that fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.
I mean, they assumed that the Russians would follow their own military doctrine and that their military actually functioned.
Assuming that they were going to be as incompetent as they were would have been irresponsible.
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