Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1639958635953496065
Now some of the people who were calling on Ukraine to abandon Bakmut are walking it back

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1639958635953496065
Now some of the people who were calling on Ukraine to abandon Bakmut are walking it back

"some of the people"

- 1 guy

Also, holding the lines (which they're barely doing) isn't the issue. The general consensus is that they're allocating many resources to a city that has it's flanks and roads exposed. It's lost it's value as a strategic position for Ukraine.

[Woody]

"Russia controls less territory than previously thought" - could this become a theme?

That area he was pointing to was only projected by NOEL, and only him - to be under RU control. Those positions north of Spartak is near an old Soviet Bunker, (Zinit or something) which was under Ukrainian control since 2014, also probably one of the most heavily mined places on earth.. as it's located near Donetsk Airport.

Nobody ever had those under Russian control, expect him apparently, which is weird.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639947484406468608
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639949057765326849
This war can’t end with Putin in power 😡🤬

[Storr]

If you ever wondered why the Balts dislike Russia so much, this is the Prime Minister of Estonia. Crimean Tatars, Chechens, Volga Germans, and many other minorities were deported east by the Soviet Union during and immediately after WWII. The only reason Ukrainians weren't deported by Stalin and his cronies was because there were too many of them.

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1639686737894014979?s=20

[BG-NY]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639947484406468608
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1639949057765326849
This war can’t end with Putin in power 😡🤬

Article is light in details, but if it is accurate that Ukrainian civilians are being kidnapped and sent to concentration camps, the West most likely would need to bomb Russia. Very big “if”.

[It’s so Joever]

Some interesting reads today from Reuters on the war. First, Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Zaluzhniy reported to his British counterpart that they have stabilized Bakmut. Second, Ukraine is calling for a UN intervention on Russia putting nukes in Belarus
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-soldier-says-situation-embattled-bakhmut-is-stabilising-2023-03-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-security-chief-says-basing-russian-nuclear-weapons-belarus-will-2023-03-26/

From the article: Putin talking about a new "Axis" feels like yet another effort on his part to pull from the Great Patriotic War playbook.
Zelensky, of course, does the same too, but in different ways. This is Putin's version.

It’s such a weird comparison for Putin to make because not only is Russia the aggressor here but Ukraine gave more to WW2 than even Russia. The heaviest battles were in Ukraine and I believe Ukraine had the single biggest population loss per capita than of the the republics in the USSR

It's not so weird, rather self-absorbed (in ways that nations are not unusual to be).

To use old terminology briefly here:
White Russians (Belarussians) were the most badly impacted of all three and around 20% of them died in a mere four years, iirc. They were overran first and were even subjected to the start of what would be Generalplan Ost. I feel certain that whole villages were destroyed and everyone in them slaughtered by German forces.
Little Russians (Ukrainians) were effectively in the fight the longest and without them the Soviet Union would have fallen, people like Zelensky's grandfather slowing the tide. And as you noted, lost huge numbers of people thanks to the Nazis and all...
Great Russians (Russians) provided a huge chunk of what was left to turn things around, once it was stopped. Stalin appealed to Great Russian "defend the motherland" sentiment to turn the tide and it worked. And there were roughly three times more Russians than Ukrainians.

All three of these groups lost massively. There's a cliche that American media and Americans are obsessed with World War II, but Russia takes it to a whole new level, with Victory Day parades and all...We will never really fully understand how utterly brutalized the Soviet Union was by Barbarossa. We'd understand if we had to face down an invasion of America's heartland by Nazi Germany. Russia lives on the Northern European Plain, a highway for invaders throughout history...we live on our own hemisphere insulated by two oceans.

Zelensky pulling from the Stalin playbook is naming cities Hero Cities and using what looks like a Stalingrad-style strategy in Bakhmut. Putin's is appealing to the whole "defend the motherland" trope and creating a controlled sense of siege (if there was not already one) to help further his war. If Ukraine was really as bellicose and Nazi as he claimed it was, then he would not need to create this sort of narrative, as Ukraine would be doing it for him with aggressive action that would actually give the Russians justification to fight Ukraine in the open like this and Russians might be scared, even, by Ukraine's stated goals and actions.

So Putin is forced into trying to create, within Russia, a mini-version of what Stalin had presented to him gift-wrapped by genocidal invaders. All Stalin had to do to achieve the same was direct the energy usefully and maintain unity, which he did. To make up the difference  requires even bigger bald-faced lies about Ukraine and strong efforts to get people on the government's side, aided by the fact that the social media scene is not one that is driven by truth, but rather by engagement metrics that don't care about what actual reality is.

The creator of this Russian show has been forced to create a mirror site, and suffered consequences for his stand against the Russian invasion "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Very good analysis. The legacy of such a devastating time is still salient even nearly a century later in both countries. Of course it makes sense that actors on both sides will evoke the era in their rhetorical strategy.

[KaiserDave]

Unsurprising that Putin planned terror tactics and rounding up dissidents for mass imprisonment to anyone who is familiar with the history of Russian irredentism and aggression.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some interesting reads today from Reuters on the war. First, Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Zaluzhniy reported to his British counterpart that they have stabilized Bakmut. Second, Ukraine is calling for a UN intervention on Russia putting nukes in Belarus
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-soldier-says-situation-embattled-bakhmut-is-stabilising-2023-03-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-security-chief-says-basing-russian-nuclear-weapons-belarus-will-2023-03-26/

From the article: Putin talking about a new "Axis" feels like yet another effort on his part to pull from the Great Patriotic War playbook.
Zelensky, of course, does the same too, but in different ways. This is Putin's version.

It’s such a weird comparison for Putin to make because not only is Russia the aggressor here but Ukraine gave more to WW2 than even Russia. The heaviest battles were in Ukraine and I believe Ukraine had the single biggest population loss per capita than of the the republics in the USSR

It's not so weird, rather self-absorbed (in ways that nations are not unusual to be).

To use old terminology briefly here:
White Russians (Belarussians) were the most badly impacted of all three and around 20% of them died in a mere four years, iirc. They were overran first and were even subjected to the start of what would be Generalplan Ost. I feel certain that whole villages were destroyed and everyone in them slaughtered by German forces.
Little Russians (Ukrainians) were effectively in the fight the longest and without them the Soviet Union would have fallen, people like Zelensky's grandfather slowing the tide. And as you noted, lost huge numbers of people thanks to the Nazis and all...
Great Russians (Russians) provided a huge chunk of what was left to turn things around, once it was stopped. Stalin appealed to Great Russian "defend the motherland" sentiment to turn the tide and it worked. And there were roughly three times more Russians than Ukrainians.

All three of these groups lost massively. There's a cliche that American media and Americans are obsessed with World War II, but Russia takes it to a whole new level, with Victory Day parades and all...We will never really fully understand how utterly brutalized the Soviet Union was by Barbarossa. We'd understand if we had to face down an invasion of America's heartland by Nazi Germany. Russia lives on the Northern European Plain, a highway for invaders throughout history...we live on our own hemisphere insulated by two oceans.

Zelensky pulling from the Stalin playbook is naming cities Hero Cities and using what looks like a Stalingrad-style strategy in Bakhmut. Putin's is appealing to the whole "defend the motherland" trope and creating a controlled sense of siege (if there was not already one) to help further his war. If Ukraine was really as bellicose and Nazi as he claimed it was, then he would not need to create this sort of narrative, as Ukraine would be doing it for him with aggressive action that would actually give the Russians justification to fight Ukraine in the open like this and Russians might be scared, even, by Ukraine's stated goals and actions.

So Putin is forced into trying to create, within Russia, a mini-version of what Stalin had presented to him gift-wrapped by genocidal invaders. All Stalin had to do to achieve the same was direct the energy usefully and maintain unity, which he did. To make up the difference  requires even bigger bald-faced lies about Ukraine and strong efforts to get people on the government's side, aided by the fact that the social media scene is not one that is driven by truth, but rather by engagement metrics that don't care about what actual reality is.

The creator of this Russian show has been forced to create a mirror site, and suffered consequences for his stand against the Russian invasion "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Very good analysis. The legacy of such a devastating time is still salient even nearly a century later in both countries. Of course it makes sense that actors on both sides will evoke the era in their rhetorical strategy.

thanks for the kind words!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Seemed relevant because of recent news:
https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1639676754657681410

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1640098717020614657
Rest in piss bozo

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1640098717020614657
Rest in piss bozo

Well, you reap what you sow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Culminating point is a specific concept in military strategy expounded by Carl von Clausewitz. It means that a force is no longer capable of achieving its objectives; the threat from their strategy has peaked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

Interesting. Today I learned.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

https://www.newsweek.com/ted-nugent-kicks-off-trump-rally-attacking-ukraines-zelensky-1790323

"Ted Nugent Kicks Off Trump Rally Attacking Ukraine's Zelensky"

Ted Nugent calls Zelensky a "homosexual weirdo" at Trump re-election kickoff rally.

Least callous and bigoted Ted Nugent rally kickoff remark.

[Hollywood]

Some interesting reads today from Reuters on the war. First, Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Zaluzhniy reported to his British counterpart that they have stabilized Bakmut. Second, Ukraine is calling for a UN intervention on Russia putting nukes in Belarus
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-soldier-says-situation-embattled-bakhmut-is-stabilising-2023-03-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-security-chief-says-basing-russian-nuclear-weapons-belarus-will-2023-03-26/

Not really that interesting when the information being reported in support of their claims are pretty stale and extremely dubious.

Let's start with this BS claim about Russia transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus, because I find their framing incredibly scary.  It appears to be an attempt to shift public attention away from the UK's shipment of depleted Uranium-tipped tank ammo that other sources were reporting last month, but was only recently confirmed by the British Defense Ministry.  Towards that end, Reuters is falsely conflating the sale of nuclear missiles to Belarus (BS) with the sale of the Isklander missile system that can launch cruise missiles 'capable of carrying a nuclear payload if later modified' (reality).  Russia is sending these offensive-defensive systems to Belarus, because Ukraine, as they have claimed multiple times, successfully launched attacks into Belarus military and civilian locations.  Russia isn't sending nukes to Belarus.  Their position has been incredibly straightforward.  If NATO provides WMD to Ukraine, they will respond with corresponding weaponry against Ukraine.   Russia has a lot of depleted-uranium tipped ammunition that they could have fire at Ukraine, but they have held back.  

https://twitter.com/missnicamarie/status/1638883861257150465

Second, there was an expected operational pause earlier this week that was reported as a possibility for multiple weeks.  Per this March 10th Article from NBC, citing the Institute for the Study of War, "The bloody battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut wages on, but Russian mercenary group Wagner may be taking a “tactical pause.”. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html.  Ironically, Reuters wrote the article as Wagner Forces had some successful offensives in Bakhmut City, and Ukraine has actually lost ground within in the city from March 24th to the 26th.  Ukraine did stabilize the advance by Wagner Contractors flanking, and encircling, Bakhmut from the Northern and Southern areas like Ivanivske and Khromove. . Many Troops have been pumped into the Bakhmut Front in order to stop Russia from cutting-off all routes in-and-out of Bakhmut, as well as prevent them from reaching the canal protecting Chasiv Yar.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.newsweek.com/ted-nugent-kicks-off-trump-rally-attacking-ukraines-zelensky-1790323

"Ted Nugent Kicks Off Trump Rally Attacking Ukraine's Zelensky"

Ted Nugent calls Zelensky a "homosexual weirdo" at Trump re-election kickoff rally.

Least callous and bigoted Ted Nugent rally kickoff remark.

Nugent, after all, has always been the most incredibly nice man in how he's spoken about Obama and other figures disliked by at least segments of the Republican base. Only the most respectful. Why, he's a modern day Mr. Rogers...

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Culminating point is a specific concept in military strategy expounded by Carl von Clausewitz. It means that a force is no longer capable of achieving its objectives; the threat from their strategy has peaked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

Interesting. Today I learned.

It's sort of the same concept as Cemetery Ridge being the "high-water mark of the Confederacy". It sounds like a good thing, and in the moment it is, but after high water there's nothing for the tide to do but ebb...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Culminating point is a specific concept in military strategy expounded by Carl von Clausewitz. It means that a force is no longer capable of achieving its objectives; the threat from their strategy has peaked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

Interesting. Today I learned.

It's sort of the same concept as Cemetery Ridge being the "high-water mark of the Confederacy". It sounds like a good thing, and in the moment it is, but after high water there's nothing for the tide to do but ebb...

Yeah. That analogy is a good way to explain it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640263676048359425?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640254569446797312?s=20

[Woody]

Dmitry Lissitzky was apparently not killed in Ukraine. He was found dead in his apartment in Stavropol', Southern Russia.

[Woody]

Update: He killed himself out of depression it seems like. Supposedly because his personnel complained about his misconduct (hazing?)

On the morning of March 27, Ksenia Sobchak's Telegram channel "The Bloody Lady" reported that Lieutenant Colonel Lissitzky actually committed suicide using a hunting rifle in his apartment in Stavropol, and was not "liquidated" in the "special operation" zone.

Colleagues claim that recently Lissitzky was depressed and talked about suicide, presumably "because of a complaint about his misconduct against personnel." The death of a lieutenant colonel without specifying a reason was confirmed to the channel by the head of the Blagodarnensky urban district of the Stavropol Territory, Alexander Tenkov.

https://russianfreepress.com/2023/03/27/russian-commander-lissitzky-one-of-the-organizers-of-the-ilovaisky-cauldron-died-in-2014/

[Logical]

Update: He killed himself out of depression it seems like. Supposedly because his personnel complained about his misconduct (hazing?)

On the morning of March 27, Ksenia Sobchak's Telegram channel "The Bloody Lady" reported that Lieutenant Colonel Lissitzky actually committed suicide using a hunting rifle in his apartment in Stavropol, and was not "liquidated" in the "special operation" zone.

Colleagues claim that recently Lissitzky was depressed and talked about suicide, presumably "because of a complaint about his misconduct against personnel." The death of a lieutenant colonel without specifying a reason was confirmed to the channel by the head of the Blagodarnensky urban district of the Stavropol Territory, Alexander Tenkov.

https://russianfreepress.com/2023/03/27/russian-commander-lissitzky-one-of-the-organizers-of-the-ilovaisky-cauldron-died-in-2014/

Least suspicious Russian VIP death.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Some interesting reads today from Reuters on the war. First, Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Zaluzhniy reported to his British counterpart that they have stabilized Bakmut. Second, Ukraine is calling for a UN intervention on Russia putting nukes in Belarus
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-soldier-says-situation-embattled-bakhmut-is-stabilising-2023-03-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-security-chief-says-basing-russian-nuclear-weapons-belarus-will-2023-03-26/

Not really that interesting when the information being reported in support of their claims are pretty stale and extremely dubious.

Let's start with this BS claim about Russia transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus, because I find their framing incredibly scary.  It appears to be an attempt to shift public attention away from the UK's shipment of depleted Uranium-tipped tank ammo that other sources were reporting last month, but was only recently confirmed by the British Defense Ministry.  Towards that end, Reuters is falsely conflating the sale of nuclear missiles to Belarus (BS) with the sale of the Isklander missile system that can launch cruise missiles 'capable of carrying a nuclear payload if later modified' (reality).  Russia is sending these offensive-defensive systems to Belarus, because Ukraine, as they have claimed multiple times, successfully launched attacks into Belarus military and civilian locations.  Russia isn't sending nukes to Belarus.  Their position has been incredibly straightforward.  If NATO provides WMD to Ukraine, they will respond with corresponding weaponry against Ukraine.   Russia has a lot of depleted-uranium tipped ammunition that they could have fire at Ukraine, but they have held back.  

https://twitter.com/missnicamarie/status/1638883861257150465
Second, there was an expected operational pause earlier this week that was reported as a possibility for multiple weeks.  Per this March 10th Article from NBC, citing the Institute for the Study of War, "The bloody battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut wages on, but Russian mercenary group Wagner may be taking a “tactical pause.”. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html.  Ironically, Reuters wrote the article as Wagner Forces had some successful offensives in Bakhmut City, and Ukraine has actually lost ground within in the city from March 24th to the 26th.  Ukraine did stabilize the advance by Wagner Contractors flanking, and encircling, Bakhmut from the Northern and Southern areas like Ivanivske and Khromove. . Many Troops have been pumped into the Bakhmut Front in order to stop Russia from cutting-off all routes in-and-out of Bakhmut, as well as prevent them from reaching the canal protecting Chasiv Yar.  

Depleted Uranium isn’t a wmd. It’s, you know, depleted. As in the dense waste metal produced after uranium has been enriched, about 68% denser than lead and used in similar applications, like AP rounds. ‘Depleted Uranium tipped shells’ aren’t a thing, the what we might call bullet of the shell is made from DU instead of lead, using this formulation is misleading, either intentionally on your part or the Russian propaganda you’re quoting too credulously, to imply these are nuclear devices to imply a Western escalation and provide a post-hoc justification for the Russian war. Similar to Russians citing Ukraine having javelin missiles as a threat to Russian security, relying on credulous listeners to conflate man portable anti-tank weapons with cruise missiles.
A depleted Uranium shell is as much a nuclear weapon as a lead bullet is a chemical weapon

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1640355417212502019

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Rare Chinese W?