Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575542673758625792?s=20&t=Oq5fcjeIzAwC...

[Storr]

BREAKING

Unconfirmed, treat accordingly.

Bad if true. Although Belarus is pathetic militarily, it would force UA to pull back troops to defend the north.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575502337992724481

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1575450978685444104?

More trolling from Ukraine (note the historic reenactment setup):

"Belarus is preparing to receive 20,000 people mobilized from the Russian Federation"

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1575480056087838722?s=20&t=Oq5fcje...

[Stranger in a strange land]

BREAKING

Unconfirmed, treat accordingly.

Bad if true. Although Belarus is pathetic militarily, it would force UA to pull back troops to defend the north.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575502337992724481

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1575450978685444104?

Opposition to the war is nearly unanimous in Belarus - unlike in Russia - even among people who otherwise support the regime. The Belarusian army is even more corrupt, poorly funded, and reliant on conscripts than the russian one. Lukashenko is inviting his army to mutiny and overthrow him if he does this.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1575412801346191362?s=20&t=uyblV1...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1575546153609072641?s=20&t=uyblV1upRvTmS_...

[Torie]

That map above is a beautiful thing, suitable for framing. That one blue arrow to the south that protrudes the farthest north, is about to cut the last road to the east to enable an escape from the vise. After that the Russians inside will be free at last, free at last, to surrender. I assume the quisling cowards left long ago. That would be a bad zip code, very bad, for them to remain in.

[Person Man]

That map above is a beautiful thing, suitable for framing. That one blue arrow to the south that protrudes the farthest north, is about to cut the last road to the east to enable an escape from the vise. After that the Russians inside will be free at last, free at last, to surrender. I assume the quisling cowards left long ago. That would be a bad zip code, very bad, for them to remain in.

I call that First and Goal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

As if, in the scenario the US did it or indirectly helped it happen, it would be a flash decision made without the support of other NATO members...and said NATO members would suddenly turn against the US...and they wouldn't just blame the Russians, who make perfect scapegoats...

The US would never do this without the backing of at least some substantial chunk of NATO. At the very least, Poland and Ukraine. In my view, the Germans, being the ones with the worst options of all parties here, are prone to be forced to go along with the agendas of others, if they don't do so willingly.

But that's enough about this topic. Only with time, reading through the lines, will we know for sure...

[jaichind]

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1575584971569258497

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1575571339993583616

[Torie]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

As if, in the scenario the US did it or indirectly helped it happen, it would be a flash decision made without the support of other NATO members...and said NATO members would suddenly turn against the US...and they wouldn't just blame the Russians, who make perfect scapegoats...

The US would never do this without the backing of at least some substantial chunk of NATO. At the very least, Poland and Ukraine. In my view, the Germans, being the ones with the worst options of all parties here, are prone to be forced to go along with the agendas of others, if they don't do so willingly.

But that's enough about this topic. Only with time, reading through the lines, will we know for sure...

Yes, time usually reveals most, but not all necessarily. In the meantime, Sir Tim, you have managed to break the glass of Overton's window, you vandal you. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anschluss... interesting choice of words by this German media outlet.

[Torie]

Anschluss... interesting choice of words by this German media outlet.

Ewe. Yuck. The "Krauts" have never been very good at nuance and connotation. I agree with Churchill on that one.

[SnowLabrador]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

As if, in the scenario the US did it or indirectly helped it happen, it would be a flash decision made without the support of other NATO members...and said NATO members would suddenly turn against the US...and they wouldn't just blame the Russians, who make perfect scapegoats...

The US would never do this without the backing of at least some substantial chunk of NATO. At the very least, Poland and Ukraine. In my view, the Germans, being the ones with the worst options of all parties here, are prone to be forced to go along with the agendas of others, if they don't do so willingly.

But that's enough about this topic. Only with time, reading through the lines, will we know for sure...

Yes, time usually reveals most, but not all necessarily. In the meantime, Sir Tim, you have managed to break the glass of Overton's window, you vandal you. 

My foremost pleasure would not come from this forum adopting my views. My foremost pleasure will come from our intelligence community and establishment winning out against Russia's, our system prevailing. And they are on the track to doing so, despite my concerns from earlier in the war.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1575650519648858112

[HillGoose]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

lmao and then immediately get his ass beat by NATO

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

Nucular... the word is nucular.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/1stopdailynews/status/1575650154665082880

The new command, which would be based at Wiesbaden in Germany, would fall under Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, which has led the multinational effort to train Ukrainian military forces on advanced Western weapons and deliver those weapons to the border with Ukraine, one official said. It is expected to be led by a 3-star general.

(...) The US and its allies and partners established the Ukraine Contact Group, consisting of more than 40 countries meeting monthly, to coordinate shipments of weapons and equipment into Ukraine.

The new command would create a more formal structure within the military to manage the shipments, officials said. Its anticipated location in central Germany also places it close to many of the training areas used by the US and Western countries to teach Ukrainian forces how to employ Western weaponry.

The command would also work closely with the International Donor Coordination Center (IDCC), which has played a critical role in handling the logistics necessary to match the need for Ukrainian weapons with the available stocks of potential donor countries.

[HillGoose]

whens NATO gonna donate some rods from god to Ukraine

[Person Man]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

I wish he would go ahead and make his move. That would be one less sword hanging over our head.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

That map above is a beautiful thing, suitable for framing. That one blue arrow to the south that protrudes the farthest north, is about to cut the last road to the east to enable an escape from the vise. After that the Russians inside will be free at last, free at last, to surrender. I assume the quisling cowards left long ago. That would be a bad zip code, very bad, for them to remain in.

When the Germans were about to surround Kyiv in 1941, the Soviet generals asked Stalin permission to retreat from the city. Stalin refused, and the city was surrounded and the whole Soviet army was captured or wiped out.

The same thing is happening with Lyman and Putin refusing to withdraw.

[Oryxslayer]

That map above is a beautiful thing, suitable for framing. That one blue arrow to the south that protrudes the farthest north, is about to cut the last road to the east to enable an escape from the vise. After that the Russians inside will be free at last, free at last, to surrender. I assume the quisling cowards left long ago. That would be a bad zip code, very bad, for them to remain in.

When the Germans were about to surround Kyiv in 1941, the Soviet generals asked Stalin permission to retreat from the city. Stalin refused, and the city was surrounded and the whole Soviet army was captured.

The same thing is happening with Lyman and Putin refusing to withdraw.

Very similar things happened at Stalingrad and Leningrad...and well those eventually ended up much better for the USSR. Now I am in no way chose to saying that such things will repeat themselves. Rather I am suggesting that Putin had those examples on his mind when he ordered no retreat rather than the disastrous early days of 1941, or the tactics the Germans employed during their 2-year retreat. Never mind the fact that two wars nearly 100 years separated from each other have very little comparisons that are not apples to oranges.

Which is why I commented when the order was published that Putin seemed to be much more high than normal off the WWII copium. Because things will very likely not go the way Russia's leaders hope.

[walleye26]

Do we have any idea how many Russian troops are in Lyman? Like, if it’s a company or two then it’s not really a big deal, but if we are talking a few battalions or several divisions then that’s something to celebrate. But do we have like a solid number? 100? 1,000? 10,000?