Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

Of course, Russia gets hit too.  The case for Russia behind it would be something like Cortés burning his boats. Putin's message for his people would be that there is no going back.  It is victory or death.

Putin isn’t going to give us Smallpox though…right?

[jaichind]

Financial Times: "Germany’s economy could shrink by 7.9 per cent next year in the event of an unusually cold winter and the introduction of gas rationing in industry, the country’s leading economic institutes have predicted."

A bunch of ifs but way worse than what the Investment Bank concenus is right now. 

In the long run the big issue for Germany, of course, is one of reduced economic competitiveness. Cheap Russian gas helped Germany for years. It's unlikely anything will be as good of a replacement as Russian gas was prior to this war beginning.

Which makes the latest news from Germany putting a cap on gas prices a foolish move.  If gas is in short supply then it si critical it goes to the most economic productive users of that gas.  A cap which means rationing means it goes to the most politically connected users of that gas which sounds just like the old Eastern bloc economies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

Of course, Russia gets hit too.  The case for Russia behind it would be something like Cortés burning his boats. Putin's message for his people would be that there is no going back.  It is victory or death.

The Cortez analogy is utterly perfect. Such a calculated and irreversible move of this sort, as we already know it to be from its nature, easily works as an comparison regardless of who is responsible.

[Torie]

Financial Times: "Germany’s economy could shrink by 7.9 per cent next year in the event of an unusually cold winter and the introduction of gas rationing in industry, the country’s leading economic institutes have predicted."

A bunch of ifs but way worse than what the Investment Bank concenus is right now. 

In the long run the big issue for Germany, of course, is one of reduced economic competitiveness. Cheap Russian gas helped Germany for years. It's unlikely anything will be as good of a replacement as Russian gas was prior to this war beginning.

Which makes the latest news from Germany putting a cap on gas prices a foolish move.  If gas is in short supply then it si critical it goes to the most economic productive users of that gas.  A cap which means rationing means it goes to the most politically connected users of that gas which sounds just like the old Eastern bloc economies.

Humanity and equity in the minds of some justify policies that truncate economic growth a bit, at least in the short term, e.g. trying to mitigate a bit the misery of those who will not be able to afford the consumption of energy at suddenly high prices. So what seems "foolish" to you, might seem a moral imperative to others. And in the longer run, the market is a harsh mistress cruel policies can lead to societal instability.  That is not good for investors, among other things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

Of course, Russia gets hit too.  The case for Russia behind it would be something like Cortés burning his boats. Putin's message for his people would be that there is no going back.  It is victory or death.

Putin isn’t going to give us Smallpox though…right?

Putin probably gets couped sooner than he releases smallpox over Europe (and thus, implicitly, America) as revenge. If anything would encourage total destruction of the financial and other interests of Russia as a nation, it would be something like that. Europe would have to respond very firmly to something as cut-and-dry as Russia engaging in such destructive biological terrorism, and the US would be obliged to consider anything short of nuclear war (or anything likewise damaging) in response to such a move.

Should Biden think, from information collected from our intelligence community, that such a step is actually being seriously considered by the Russian leadership, then he should consider making this clear or whatever he sees fit, and make his informed decision on how to act. Russia must know there is a price to be paid for aggression and breaking rules.

Russian methods may be great for gaining and holding power, but power itself is but a vessel. It ought to be a vessel ably used to preserve liberty.

[jaichind]

Another analogy for the case of Putin being behind the NS sabotage would be the climatic scene from one of the more famous Korean TV series "The Merchant"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Merchant_(TV_series) 

In the scene, a top Korean merchant exporter in the late 1790s outsmarts a Chinese business syndicate in Beijing who wants to put a price cap on his highly valued Korean Ginseng.  The Korean merchant, knowing that his financial resources cannot outlast the powerful Chinese business syndicate burns his Korean Ginseng in front of the Chinese business syndicate leaders who then break down and agrees to the Korean merchant's price.

The scene is here
https://youtu.be/JKIbPVzfbKk?list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=28

Note that in this scene since they are in Beijing they are speaking to each other in Chinese to have the right authenticity and subtitled in Korean.

In this scenario perhaps Putin is hoping for some German breakdown.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

I'm a poli science graduate who has worked in a political staffing position in Berlin for roughly ten years now. And I'm supposed to be "naive" about statecraft? Are you serious?

And what are your credentials I ask? If they are not in some way similar I must come to the conclusion that you simply lack the conpetence to make this kind of assessement.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

Spying/intelligence-gathering and causing an environmental disaster that cuts off a close ally from his energy supply are two entirely dffferent pair of shoes.

Do you understand the difference?

I respect your experience, but I do not think it tells the full picture. The history of American intelligence apparatus and overall state policies during the Cold War is a very deep topic and one that neither you nor I will fully understand in our lifetimes, but it is one I keep in mind here, because in many ways, that is how the US seeks to confront Russia.

Blablabla... yadda yadda yadda... who are you to determine what I know and understand about the Cold War?

Alongside poli science I minored in contemporary history where we were taught about issues like the Bay of Pigs invasion, Vietnam, or the military assistance the Soviet bloc gave so-called liberation movements and socialist "brother countries" in the Third world.

But go back reading your encyclopedias, please.

[jaichind]

Humanity and equity in the minds of some justify policies that truncate economic growth a bit, at least in the short term, e.g. trying to mitigate a bit the misery of those who will not be able to afford the consumption of energy at suddenly high prices. So what seems "foolish" to you, might seem a moral imperative to others. And in the longer run, the market is a harsh mistress cruel policies can lead to societal instability.  That is not good for investors, among other things.

Yeah, but in such a situation it always ends up being those who ar the most politically connected that benefit and not those "who will not be able to afford the consumption of energy."  Just like it is an axiom that "When A takes resources from B to give to C, the main gainer always ends being A and not C"

[Torie]

Yeah, the existence of the middle man is a cost, that itself bears close watching, but alas often a necessary evil.

I don’t quite get the small box thing. There has been a vaccine since Abigail Adams used it that is long lasting, hasn’t there?

[Sol]

As for my qualifications, I have been, for many years, immersing myself in the specific matter of the state and how states compete with each other. It is limited in its own sense and there have been things I have been massively wrong about before. My focus on matters of competition between states and the nature of systems enlighten, inform, and blind me in a matter not too unlike it would much else. Nonetheless, I've read and listened and watched vociferiously over the course of my life...I was reading encyclopedias since I was less than seven, and history books since I was less than ten. I've been making significant usage of Youtube since, around say, 2018, and I listen to podcasts somewhat regularly.

Regarding the pipeline itself: some things don't make sense when seen in isolation but work perfectly well when seen in a more general way, from a more system-driven point-of-view.

As for Antonio's comment - I'll note he fails to even get my age right. (I'm 24.)

new copypasta just dropped

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/bartlettdaron/status/1575486133299216392
https://twitter.com/jaccocharite/status/1575441147157176322
https://twitter.com/Detec2Detective/status/1575465092937748480

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AddictMap/status/1575486032761749518

[jaichind]

I am not clear on exactly what is the boundaries of the territories that Russia is going to annex.  is it the fourth Ukraine Oblast boundaries or is it just the territories that actually voted?  I am going to assume it is the former which is less logical but I just have to assume that Russia has its own logic for this.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575487566551613442

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am not clear on exactly what is the boundaries of the territories that Russia is going to annex.  is it the fourth Ukraine Oblast boundaries or is it just the territories that actually voted?  I am going to assume it is the former which is less logical but I just have to assume that Russia has its own logic for this.

As with the LDPR claimed territories, I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia was deliberately ambiguous so that they had more grounds to expand or contract their war goals on the fly. In the meantime, they can use this to deploy conscripts everywhere but Kharkiv.

If they continue to lose areas that “voted”, I am sure we will hear that these were the more pro-Ukrainian areas in the referendums, although a precinct cope map is too much to ask for.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575487566551613442

You mean that Red Skull guy? I guess Captain Ukraine got him.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1575498265491312640

[CumbrianLefty]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

[Omega21]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lengthy German article: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/nord-stream-explosionen-ermittlungen-101.html

Bottomline: German government and German authorities refuse, at this point, to officially name any suspect in the pipeline disruptions.

Individual members of parliament, including members of the intelligence committee, have told the media however that the German authorities are working on the premise that Russia is the "most likely" culprit. It was stressed that "most likely" doesn't mean certainty. The motive given for Russia to bomb the pipeline is to sow chaos and confusion in Europe and to cause a further rise in energy prices. It is also interpreted as a possible sign that Putin has pretty much decided that Europe shouldn't be a future market for Russian energy exports any longer, probably a decision made as a result of Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine (as I have noted before in this thread, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had been put out of operation by Gazprom due to "maintenance works" for ca. a month now).

Ukraine is pretty much ruled as the culprit due to a lack of necessary capabilities to carry out such a operation, and the great distance of the "crime scene" to Ukrainian territory.

This only leaves "other NATO countries" as potential suspects. This is a scenario which is met with a certain skepticism (TimTurner would probably say "naivity" when it comes to statecraft) within the Bundestag, essentially for similar reasons I don't rest to argue for in this very thread: It would mean the end of the NATO alliance if America was actually was behind it, and the person who would rejoice the most over that would be Vladimir Putin.

[Omega21]

BREAKING

Unconfirmed, treat accordingly.

Bad if true. Although Belarus is pathetic militarily, it would force UA to pull back troops to defend the north.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575502337992724481

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1575450978685444104?

[Badger]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

Of course, Russia gets hit too.  The case for Russia behind it would be something like Cortés burning his boats. Putin's message for his people would be that there is no going back.  It is victory or death.

The Cortez analogy is utterly perfect. Such a calculated and irreversible move of this sort, as we already know it to be from its nature, easily works as an comparison regardless of who is responsible.

Well, of all the potential suspects, it actually further indicates who is the most desperate to and in pure Victory or death mindset right now....

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1575511609094586368

https://twitter.com/TheJusticeDept/status/1575527966884470784

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1575511609094586368

It’s a start, but polling is going to be even less reliable than it usually is in a middle-income, authoritarian state. There’s going to have to be a certain strength of feeling (likely well above a simple majority against the war) before Russian leadership is prepared to negotiate an end on sensible terms.

[Torie]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

They already have the Ramstein base surrounded. Piece of cake.