Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

Every yellow avatar on here is either completely unhinged or else from Norway, it seems.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/OPylypovych/status/1575237621411782656

tucker carlson is a commie basterd

he hates america so much idk why he even lives here

He can afford to move out, right?

[Omega21]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

I am talking about the economy, has 0 to do with Biden or anything else.

It was just my personal economic scoreboard to say who I think is desperate (taking a hit) as a result of the war...  (excl. Ukraine, because that answer is fairly clear)

[Middle-aged Europe]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

I am talking about the economy, has 0 to do with Biden or anything else.

It was just my personal economic scoreboard to say who I think is desperate (taking a hit) as a result of the war...  (excl. Ukraine, because that answer is fairly clear)

Since you were an eager member of camp "the US did it" about 24 hours before I decided to make a call such nuances easily get lost in the confusion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With regards to the pipeline it is also noteworthy that a Russian government official has already publicly blamed America, while the US and the EU refrain from officially assigning any blame on anyone so far.

I guess if Russia is so damn certain about it that fast they surely must have clear-cut evidence in their possession and maybe they should release that evidence... which they're gonna do when exactly now? Sarcasm aside, there seems to be one "desperate" side that is not really acting in good faith here.

[Badger]

I do not know who blew up the NS pipelines.  But I think everyone can agree that the side that did it is the side that is getting desperate.

Well, then that should easily answer your question as to who did it.

[Omega21]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

I am talking about the economy, has 0 to do with Biden or anything else.

It was just my personal economic scoreboard to say who I think is desperate (taking a hit) as a result of the war...  (excl. Ukraine, because that answer is fairly clear)

Since you were an eager member of camp "the US did it" about 24 hours before I decided to make a call such nuances easily get lost in the confusion.

Yeah I should have clarified, see why it could be confusing.

I do still think the US/NATO/Ukraine is responsible, as I see far greater motive.

Regarding the "Russian boats in the area" posts from earlier, American boats and choppers (which later turned off transponders) were also active less than a month ago. Will link posts if I find them again later.

Anyway, old news already, so not thinking much about it.

[NOVA Green]

More from my mate Mr. Sutton regarding Nordstream Gasline Sabotage...

Questions anyone???

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1575374283529920512?s=20&t=oZrFnGpjx...

https://twitter.com/SubBrief/status/1575150133364269056?s=20&t=oZrFnGpjxRdZL...

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1575152961612877828

Russia:

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1575152961612877828

Russia:

With the ruble devaluation are we sure they could afford it?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do still think the US/NATO/Ukraine is responsible, as I see far greater motive.

Pure "motive" isn't the only deciding factor here though.

I mean, strictly speaking, I would have a good "motive" to murder my own boss right now. If a have MOTIVE for it then why haven't I carried out the deed then? Does it make ANY sense that I haven't killed my boss yet despite the fact that I would have a clear motive?

Well, the first reason for not having done it is that I'm probably not a psychopath. As for the second reason, even if I were a psychopath I still would probably weigh the potential upsides against the downsides (prison time etc.).

The same principles also apply here.

If Ukraine did it and it came out that Ukraine did it, Ukraine would probably have gambled away most if not all Western assistance and goodwill. At the very least, no more rocket launchers and artillery from Germany. So, do these potential downsides outweigh any "benefits" Ukraine would stand to gain from blowing up the pipelines?
I mean the current situation was that both Nord Streams were shut down by Gazprom anyway, while Ukraine was asking and hoping for more military aid. Wouldn't it have made more sense, from the standpoint of pure motive, to at least wait until that gas flows again and it has become clear that no military aid whatsoever will arrive anymore?

A similar principle would also apply to America, because knowledge of American culpability could very well  fracture the NATO alliance for good. Aside from the fact that Germany is theoretically cut off from future gas supply, the disruption of the pipelines is also causing now a bit of an environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea. Do you truly believe that the German government, which does include the friggin Greens, would idly stand by watching that happen?

On the other hand, Russia doesn't stand to lose anything in that respect. They are already under strict sanctions by all Western governments. What else could happen to them? Do you believe Putin would care as much if someone in the West found out that he ordered it?

And with that we finally come to the issue of psychopathy, or at the very least ethics. I do not know what kind of a person you believe Joe Biden is deep down. Maybe your opinion of him was formed by that Hunter Biden "biopic" that has been distributed by Breitbart lately or by watching too much of Tucker Carlson. Surely no politician on God's Earth is a complete saint, including the current POTUS. But what I have a hard time believing in is that Joe Biden would consciously and willingly create the aforementioned environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea (that led and is leading to a release of a lot of greenhouse gas), especially with all his political initiatives that are directed to fight climate change. I mean Joe Biden is someone who essentially risked gambling away any success in the mid-term elections in order to get his climate-change packages passed in Congress. Blowing up the pipelines in the Baltic would be inconsistent with that past behaviour.

Do I have a hard time believing that Vladimir Putin is incapable of ordering such an operation though? Looking at his actions since February of this year (Bucha? Mariupol?) I definitely wouldn't say so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I do still think the US/NATO/Ukraine is responsible, as I see far greater motive.

Pure "motive" isn't the only deciding factor here though.

I mean, strictly speaking, I would have a good "motive" to murder my own boss right now. If a have MOTIVE for it then why haven't I carried out the deed then? Does it make ANY sense that I haven't killed my boss yet despite the fact that I would have a clear motive?

Well, the first reason for not having done it is that I'm probably not a psychopath. As for the second reason, even if I were a psychopath I still would probably weigh the potential upsides against the downsides (prison time etc.).

The same principles also apply here.

If Ukraine did it and it came out that Ukraine did it, Ukraine would probably have gambled away most if not all Western assistance and goodwill. At the very least, no more rocket launchers and artillery from Germany. So, do these potential downsides outweigh any "benefits" Ukraine would stand to gain from blowing up the pipelines?
I mean the current situation was that both Nord Streams were shut down by Gazprom anyway, while Ukraine was asking and hoping for more military aid. Wouldn't it have made more sense, from the standpoint of pure motive, to at least wait until that gas flows again and it has become clear that no military aid whatsoever will arrive anymore?

A similar principle would also apply to America, because knowledge of American culpability could very well  fracture the NATO alliance for good. Aside from the fact that Germany is theoretically cut off from future gas supply, the disruption of the pipelines is also causing now a bit of an environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea. Do you truly believe that the German government, which does include the friggin Greens, would idly stand by watching that happen?

On the other hand, Russia doesn't stand to lose anything in that respect. They are already under strict sanctions by all Western governments. What else could happen to them? Do you believe Putin would care as much if someone in the West found out that he ordered it?

And with that we finally come to the issue of psychopathy, or at the very least ethics. I do not know what kind of a person you believe Joe Biden is deep down. Maybe your opinion of him was formed by that Hunter Biden "biopic" that has been distributed by Breitbart lately or by watching too much of Tucker Carlson. Surely no politician on God's Earth is a complete saint, including the current POTUS. But what I have a hard time believing in is that Joe Biden would consciously and willingly create the aforementioned environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea (that led and is leading to a release of a lot of greenhouse gas), especially with all his political initiatives that are directed to fight climate change. I mean Joe Biden is someone who essentially risked gambling away any success in the mid-term elections in order to get his climate-change packages passed in Congress. Blowing up the pipelines in the Baltic would be inconsistent with that past behaviour.

Do I have a hard time believing that Vladimir Putin is incapable of ordering such an operation though? Looking at his actions since February of this year (Bucha? Mariupol?) I definitely wouldn't say so.

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

[Middle-aged Europe]

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

I'm a poli science graduate who has worked in a political staffing position in Berlin for roughly ten years now. And I'm supposed to be "naive" about statecraft? Are you serious?

And what are your credentials I ask? If they are not in some way similar I must come to the conclusion that you simply lack the conpetence to make this kind of assessement.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

Spying/intelligence-gathering and causing an environmental disaster that cuts off a close ally from his energy supply are two entirely dffferent pair of shoes.

Do you understand the difference?

[Antonio the Sixth]

For f**k's sake, nobody cares about the conspiracy theories of edgy teenagers who think they're geopolitical experts. Can we go back to discussing actual news about the war?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

I'm a poli science graduate who has worked in a political staffing position in Berlin for roughly ten years now. And I'm supposed to be "naive" about statecraft? Are you serious?

And what are your credentials I ask? If they are not in some way similar I must come to the conclusion that you simply lack the conpetence to make this kind of assessement.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

Spying/intelligence-gathering and causing an environmental disaster that cuts off a close ally from his energy supply are two entirely dffferent pair of shoes.

Do you understand the difference?

I respect your experience, but I do not think it tells the full picture. The history of American intelligence apparatus and overall state policies during the Cold War is a very deep topic and one that neither you nor I will fully understand in our lifetimes, but it is one I keep in mind here, because in many ways, that is how the US seeks to confront Russia. I do not want some long-drawn debate here; just wanted to register that there are other viewpoints out there and one can legitimately think some other version of events besides "Putin did it because this is an evil action that the US could never do".

As for my qualifications, I have been, for many years, immersing myself in the specific matter of the state and how states compete with each other. It is limited in its own sense and there have been things I have been massively wrong about before. My focus on matters of competition between states and the nature of systems enlighten, inform, and blind me in a matter not too unlike it would much else. Nonetheless, I've read and listened and watched vociferiously over the course of my life...I was reading encyclopedias since I was less than seven, and history books since I was less than ten. I've been making significant usage of Youtube since, around say, 2018, and I listen to podcasts somewhat regularly.

Regarding the pipeline itself: some things don't make sense when seen in isolation but work perfectly well when seen in a more general way, from a more system-driven point-of-view.

As for Antonio's comment - I'll note he fails to even get my age right. (I'm 24.)

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: "Germany Tackles Soaring Energy Costs With Lid on Gas Prices"

Of course this defeats the whole point of a market.  All this will do is to shift the method of allocation of scarce resources from one based on market into something else which will really be rationing and shortages. 

[Person Man]

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

I'm a poli science graduate who has worked in a political staffing position in Berlin for roughly ten years now. And I'm supposed to be "naive" about statecraft? Are you serious?

And what are your credentials I ask? If they are not in some way similar I must come to the conclusion that you simply lack the conpetence to make this kind of assessement.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

Spying/intelligence-gathering and causing an environmental disaster that cuts off a close ally from his energy supply are two entirely dffferent pair of shoes.

Do you understand the difference?

I respect your experience, but I do not think it tells the full picture. The history of American intelligence apparatus and overall state policies during the Cold War is a very deep topic and one that neither you nor I will fully understand in our lifetimes, but it is one I keep in mind here, because in many ways, that is how the US seeks to confront Russia. I do not want some long-drawn debate here; just wanted to register that there are other viewpoints out there and one can legitimately think some other version of events besides "Putin did it because this is an evil action that the US could never do".

As for my qualifications, I have been, for many years, immersing myself in the specific matter of the state and how states compete with each other. It is limited in its own sense and there have been things I have been massively wrong about before. My focus on matters of competition between states and the nature of systems enlighten, inform, and blind me in a matter not too unlike it would much else. Nonetheless, I've read and listened and watched vociferiously over the course of my life...I was reading encyclopedias since I was less than seven, and history books since I was less than ten.

Regarding the pipeline itself: some things don't make sense when seen in isolation but work perfectly well when seen in a more general way, from a more system-driven point-of-view.

As for Antonio's comment - I'll note he fails to even get my age right. (I'm 24.)

The point still stands.

[jaichind]

German YoY CPI hits 10.9%  Where is the ECB?

[jaichind]

Financial Times: "Germany’s economy could shrink by 7.9 per cent next year in the event of an unusually cold winter and the introduction of gas rationing in industry, the country’s leading economic institutes have predicted."

A bunch of ifs but way worse than what the Investment Bank concenus is right now. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A lot of this comes from a point of somewhat-naivete about statecraft.

I'm a poli science graduate who has worked in a political staffing position in Berlin for roughly ten years now. And I'm supposed to be "naive" about statecraft? Are you serious?

And what are your credentials I ask? If they are not in some way similar I must come to the conclusion that you simply lack the conpetence to make this kind of assessement.

America had spied on Germany for decades by the time Snowden blew the whistle on that. Let's not pretend there is a clear dichtonomy between things "good people" do and "bad people" do (speaking in generalities here). Rather, there are a number of tools that are used by both people opposed to us and allied with us, as well as those who are of ambiguous stance. Intent and overall goals matter more than anything else.

Does our intelligence apparatus not engage in a variety of activities around the globe?

Spying/intelligence-gathering and causing an environmental disaster that cuts off a close ally from his energy supply are two entirely dffferent pair of shoes.

Do you understand the difference?

I respect your experience, but I do not think it tells the full picture. The history of American intelligence apparatus and overall state policies during the Cold War is a very deep topic and one that neither you nor I will fully understand in our lifetimes, but it is one I keep in mind here, because in many ways, that is how the US seeks to confront Russia. I do not want some long-drawn debate here; just wanted to register that there are other viewpoints out there and one can legitimately think some other version of events besides "Putin did it because this is an evil action that the US could never do".

As for my qualifications, I have been, for many years, immersing myself in the specific matter of the state and how states compete with each other. It is limited in its own sense and there have been things I have been massively wrong about before. My focus on matters of competition between states and the nature of systems enlighten, inform, and blind me in a matter not too unlike it would much else. Nonetheless, I've read and listened and watched vociferiously over the course of my life...I was reading encyclopedias since I was less than seven, and history books since I was less than ten.

Regarding the pipeline itself: some things don't make sense when seen in isolation but work perfectly well when seen in a more general way, from a more system-driven point-of-view.

As for Antonio's comment - I'll note he fails to even get my age right. (I'm 24.)

The point still stands.

I will like to say, just to add to everything I've already said, that both PUTP and I are reasonable people coming from informed viewpoints. (I only wish I could be as clear about Antonio...)

I'm looking closely at how Russia conducts itself in the coming UN meeting. They have little reason to hold back on putting forth that would prove a US role. If that does not happen here, then I am willing to radically change my views on this incident. We saw how the Soviets conducted itself in the wake of the shooting of the 1959 reveal of US spying over the USSR. The Russians have a hugely obvious reason to play by that same playbook.

One can reasonably assume that if they cannot provide clear evidence of US culpability* (directly or indirectly), then there is a newfound huge hole in Russia's claims. This holds even taking into account everything else.
*=here used without any sense of deep moral judgement
EDIT: I should note here that there has always been some level of valid reason one could assume Russia might had done it. I will happily eat crow if it turns out that (what I thought was) reasoned assumptions turn out to actually be incorrect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Financial Times: "Germany’s economy could shrink by 7.9 per cent next year in the event of an unusually cold winter and the introduction of gas rationing in industry, the country’s leading economic institutes have predicted."

A bunch of ifs but way worse than what the Investment Bank concenus is right now. 

In the long run the big issue for Germany, of course, is one of reduced economic competitiveness. Cheap Russian gas helped Germany for years. It's unlikely anything will be as good of a replacement as Russian gas was prior to this war beginning.

[Torie]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

 

[jaichind]

If Russia is proven to be behind the sabotage of the pipeline, Germany's GDP might go down more, along with other GDP's. Perhaps Russian shipping in the Baltic will be shut down.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nato-attributes-nord-stream-leaks-to-sabotage-threatens-military-response/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=article

Of course, Russia gets hit too.  The case for Russia behind it would be something like Cortés burning his boats. Putin's message for his people would be that there is no going back.  It is victory or death.

[Person Man]

I guess the silver lining to this war will be that Europe will be tidally locked into the US orbit, people will start taking nuclear and green energy seriously again, and that workers will be empowered by so many things being onshored.