Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

It's an odd weigh to judge success; take GDP and 'weigh' it to make it seem like Russia isn't getting economically pummeled.

Of course, Russia is getting hammered.  But it becomes a question of "at what cost" and "is it sustainable?"   

There are not enough estimates to make it statistically relevant but Ukraine's 2022 GDP will most likely see a loss of 35%-40%.  This does not mean Ukraine will drop out of the war due to economic factors (caveated by what takes place this winter when the EU will need to save itself and not shift any energy to  Ukraine) as long as collective West economic and military aid continues to flow through.   This is because this war is an issue of life and death for Ukraine, and such an economic hit will not knock it out of the war.

By the same logic, the question becomes how critical the Ukraine issue is for Russia and will the population accept a 15% GDP hit relative to how critical the population of the collective West views the Ukraine issue to accept an average of 2.8% GDP hit.

The issue of the 2.5 to 1 loss ratio is more about a military analogy of a much larger military force on the offensive will need to take more losses than a smaller defensive force.  In this case, it is 2.5 to 1 and most likely this ratio will get bigger but we will see.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/18/zelensky-ukraine-wapo-interview-warn-of-war/

"Zelensky faces outpouring of criticism over failure to warn of war"

USA MSM clearly trying to throw Zelensky under the bus to exonerate Biden

That is a strange take tbh. Ask most Ukrainians - they will agree that Zelensky did not handle things terribly well in the run up to war. Even though many of the same people agree that ever since that stirring eve of conflict address, he has barely put a foot wrong.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/18/zelensky-ukraine-wapo-interview-warn-of-war/

"Zelensky faces outpouring of criticism over failure to warn of war"

USA MSM clearly trying to throw Zelensky under the bus to exonerate Biden

That is a strange take tbh. Ask most Ukrainians - they will agree that Zelensky did not handle things terribly well in the run up to war. Even though many of the same people agree that ever since that stirring eve of conflict address, he has barely put a foot wrong.

This is not about the underlying facts which frankly I do not know too much about but more about the timing of this article.  These articles tend to come out when the MSM is more negative on how the war is going and comes out to throw   Zelensky  under the bus to make sure if there are going to be "blame" it does not fall on Biden.  Note these types of articles are not coming out in the heady days of April and May but now.

[CumbrianLefty]

What is happening "now"?

To most observers, Ukraine seems to be having one of its better periods in this war.

[jaichind]

What is happening "now"?

To most observers, Ukraine seems to be having one of its better periods in this war.

Now as in not April-May when the MSM thinking is that Russia will soon exhaust itself and cannot continue the war.  What has taken place in Russia has shifted to a war of attrition that limited its losses and takes ground slowly and seems to have demonstrated that it can continue the war indefinitely.  On the collective West side, an indefinite war would mean more efforts domestically to maintain economic and military aid to Ukraine which the MSM clearly would be concerned about maintaining the longer the war drags on.  

I read the WPT article that, IF, the USA does need to cut and run in the future from this war they laid the basis for making sure Bidne is not to blame.  BTW, it will not work IF it comes to that.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-nagel/ecb-must-keep-raising-rates-as-inflation-will-stay-too-high-nagel-idUSKBN2PQ001

"ECB must keep raising rates as inflation will stay too high: Nagel"

The European Central Bank must keep raising interest rates even if a recession in Germany is increasingly likely, as inflation will stay uncomfortably high all through 2023, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told a German newspaper.

Sounds good. I like it.  Problem is that rising rates will crush PIGS bond market and lead to another round of financial crisis.   Of course, the ECB has a "tool" to contain this but that "tool" is just another round of QE which then defeats the point of raising rates to cool down inflation.   In this case, the inflation is more supply driven so the rates will have to go even higher than normal and for sure put EU in a recession for this to even work.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This winter will be Russia's last shot at breaking the West's resolve. While it will be bad for Europe energy-wise, it's basically as bad as it's ever going to get, and eventually a mix of decarbonization and finding alternative sources of gas and energy (a process that's already going faster than many of us anticipated) will bring energy costs down from 2023 on. Meanwhile the sanctions on Russia are the ones that will keep getting worse and worse as they increasingly run out of components they need to run so much of their infrastructure (unless you seriously think China can suddenly figure out how to produce semiconductors of comparable quality).

Basically, if come March 2023 Ukraine is still holding outside of the South and Donbas, the US is keeping up the pace of weapons delivery, and sanctions remain in place, Putin has no endgame left. He might be able to keep the war going for a while longer, but at that point he'd only making his and Russia's life worse for no conceivable benefit.

[2952-0-0]

Now as in not April-May when the MSM thinking is that Russia will soon exhaust itself and cannot continue the war.  What has taken place in Russia has shifted to a war of attrition that limited its losses and takes ground slowly and seems to have demonstrated that it can continue the war indefinitely.  On the collective West side, an indefinite war would mean more efforts domestically to maintain economic and military aid to Ukraine which the MSM clearly would be concerned about maintaining the longer the war drags on.

As the Chinese say, this is calling a deer, a horse.

It's now Ukraine that's slowly on the offensive and waging a war of attrition. It's getting ever more advanced military aid from the western powers. Just this week, Ukraine has conducted multiple strikes on strategic targets on the Crimea (which is as officially integral to Russia as Moscow) with the help of US intelligence - this should be unthinkable period, let alone when Russia is supposedly on some slow and steady strategic offensive. The only retaliation the Russians could muster is to bomb a home for the deaf in Kharkiv, and to park trucks laden with ammo next to nuclear reactors. The Russians are now scrounging for recruits among veterans of their war in Afghanistan (!!!), and among violent prisoners - hardly a sign of confidence or resolve.

I read the WPT article that, IF, the USA does need to cut and run in the future from this war they laid the basis for making sure Bidne is not to blame.  BTW, it will not work IF it comes to that.

...or, maybe, the Washington Post likes to reveal inside scoops.

That's what autocrats and those who simp for them don't understand: criticism of political leaders during a war is not a sign of defeat or lack of resolve. The British press continued to criticize Churchill even during the Blitz, and the Nazis engaged in wishful thinking in believing this meant they were winning.

[President Johnson]

This winter will be Russia's last shot at breaking the West's resolve. While it will be bad for Europe energy-wise, it's basically as bad as it's ever going to get, and eventually a mix of decarbonization and finding alternative sources of gas and energy (a process that's already going faster than many of us anticipated) will bring energy costs down from 2023 on. Meanwhile the sanctions on Russia are the ones that will keep getting worse and worse as they increasingly run out of components they need to run so much of their infrastructure (unless you seriously think China can suddenly figure out how to produce semiconductors of comparable quality).

Basically, if come March 2023 Ukraine is still holding outside of the South and Donbas, the US is keeping up the pace of weapons delivery, and sanctions remain in place, Putin has no endgame left. He might be able to keep the war going for a while longer, but at that point he'd only making his and Russia's life worse for no conceivable benefit.

Yeah, though the EU must stick together at all costs. I'm somewhat concerned over the election Italy with that regard.

[Storr]

Masks off moment from a senior Russian diplomat.
https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1560760437481902085

He deleted the tweet after backlash but the internet never forgets.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220819230231/twitter.com/amb_Ulyanov/status/1560756872709382145

https://twitter.com/stonebraker74/status/1560768481636794369?s=20&t=YWvkevSg...

[Storr]

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561027289604825090?s=20&t=YWvkev...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561049966235291649?s=20&t=YWvkev...

[2952-0-0]

Vibes of Baghdad, 2003. Definitely a sign that Russia is on the march, folks!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561057400009916418

[Helsinkian]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

[SnowLabrador]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

[Logical]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

According to preliminary reports the target was Dugin himself but he had left the car with an associate when it blew up. Dugin's daughter was a fascist who relentlessly promoted her father's fascist and genocidal ideology so no tears will be shed here.

[Person Man]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

According to preliminary reports the target was Dugin himself but he had left the car with an associate when it blew up. Dugin's daughter was a fascist who relentlessly promoted her father's fascist and genocidal ideology so no tears will be shed here.

She’s been in hell for a day now. An eternity minus one day is still an eternity! This is what denazification looks like.

[Person Man]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

[The Dowager Mod]

Albania is a NATO member.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1561097650350575617

[Storr]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

According to preliminary reports the target was Dugin himself but he had left the car with an associate when it blew up. Dugin's daughter was a fascist who relentlessly promoted her father's fascist and genocidal ideology so no tears will be shed here.

She’s been in hell for a day now. An eternity minus one day is still an eternity!

If we want to believe the Russian narrative, this is a huge embarrassment for the Russian security services. This happened in Moscow, not in the Donbass like the 2018 cafe bombing assassination of "DPR" leader and "Prime Minister" Oleksandr Zarchenko.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1561137226838417408?s=20&t=VbLvdmnf...

"What's currently known about the death of Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria Dugina:

▪️ The head of the "DNR" has already blamed "terrorists of the Ukrainian regime."

▪️ Dugina was returning from a literary and musical festival in her father's car, but he took a different car at the last minute for some reason.

▪️ Born in 1992, Dugina worked as her dad's press secretary, wrote about politics under a pseudonym for the pro-Kremlin outlets RT and Tsargrad, coauthored an upcoming book called "Z Books," and was added to the UK's sanctions list in July."

[NOVA Green]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Personally. I might have to both agree and disagree with you on this point.

YES--- Within the USA is def not at the top of the "news cycle" outside of coverage regarding "Spectacular Events", as part of Ukrainian asymmetrical warfare campaign continues to provide significant "forward progress".

NO-- WW III is not particularly likely, despite the provisioning of weapons systems to UKR Courtesy of NATO members.

Regardless we are nothing close to a real nuclear war event such might have occurred in the 1950s and 1960s.

The great late Luke Kelley has on of my favorite Anti-Nuclear War songs of all time,,, (AKW Bewegung does not equal the "Friedens Bewegung" when it comes to stationing of short range US/UK missiles on West German soil.

In many ways, one might make an argument that the German AKW movement, perhaps ended up overshadowing the "Peace Movement" in West Germany, which was extensively composed of faith-based communities, originating in the 1950s that later rolled through until the early 1980s.

But yet, despite the current threats to Europe's largest nuclear power plant, when it comes to electrical output, even if Russian looters successfully divert the power supply to the Russian Grid, I am still doubtful this will cause anything like a Chernobyl style incident.

Time to toss-in a few West German AKW and Anti-Nuke Weapons songs...

[Storr]

Back at the front:

https://twitter.com/Temebrarius/status/1561097731040350208?s=20&t=VbLvdmnfJ3...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This winter will be Russia's last shot at breaking the West's resolve. While it will be bad for Europe energy-wise, it's basically as bad as it's ever going to get, and eventually a mix of decarbonization and finding alternative sources of gas and energy (a process that's already going faster than many of us anticipated) will bring energy costs down from 2023 on. Meanwhile the sanctions on Russia are the ones that will keep getting worse and worse as they increasingly run out of components they need to run so much of their infrastructure (unless you seriously think China can suddenly figure out how to produce semiconductors of comparable quality).

Basically, if come March 2023 Ukraine is still holding outside of the South and Donbas, the US is keeping up the pace of weapons delivery, and sanctions remain in place, Putin has no endgame left. He might be able to keep the war going for a while longer, but at that point he'd only making his and Russia's life worse for no conceivable benefit.

In the short term, economic sanctions can hurt the countries issuing the sanctions almost as much as Russia. In the long term the sanctions are going to devastate the Russian economy.

Russia is far more reliant on exporting oil and gas to the EU, then the EU imports from Russia. Russia is a petrostate, and it's economy would collapse without energy exports.

[NOVA Green]

Back at the front:

https://twitter.com/Temebrarius/status/1561097731040350208?s=20&t=VbLvdmnfJ3...

Not too weird at all...

Russian expired military rations...

Food poisoning was likely from expired Russian "Horsemeat" rations sent their "boys on the frontline"...

Still, apparently judging and following stories frim what we DO KNOW, is that ordinary Ukrainian Citizens are effectively starving to death in even post '14 Occupied Regions, not to mention the "Russian Torture Camps" (Filtration Centers), as part of the "denazification regime".

Any Atlas Poster who supports the Russian Fascist Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine post 2014, should be perhaps perma-banned, since last time I check Atlas ToS does not allow Neo-Nazis and Neo-Fascists to post and support far-right extremist platforms.

Regardless, fortunately Ukraine will continue to be nation even after the mud and snow period which will hit in just a few more months.

IMHO the War will still be around in early 2023, regardless of if I am either living or dead.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1561191946915389440?s=20&t=Ss7vZuS...

[Storr]

Ok this is pretty worrying.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1560278407954321416?t=WVOtNB_X5bztdZKOEfy...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561222353694216193?s=20&t=kfw3sn...