Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Germany's YoY PPI came in at 37.2% and MoM PPI came in at 5.3%.  The inflation crisis for Germany and especially German industry rolls on.

[CumbrianLefty]

If and when Ukraine gets Kherson back in wonder if they’ll push for Crimea direct or turn toward Melitopol

The latter, I strongly suspect.

[jaichind]

One of the reasons why so many analysts talk about a Kherson offensive is because Russian supply routes can be constantly interdicted or cut off entirely, they will be in a much weaker position west of the river.

My view is more like: Kherson is important for Ukraine because Russia is now focused on destroying the heavily fortified and urbanized Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  Russia is taking it slow and methodically with mass artillery attacks and in the long run (weeks or months) they will break down these defenses.    If these defenses were to fall the next natural line of defense for Ukraine in the South would be the Dnieper  River.   Given that it is critical that all Russian bridgeheads on the Western side of the Dnieper River have to be removed for this defense line to be viable ergo the need to retake Kherson while the main battles are going on in the  Donetsk and Luhansk where Russian forces are focused on for now.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/17/russia-sees-38-rise-in-energy-export-earnings-this-year-reuters

"Russia sees 38% rise in energy export earnings this year: Report"

Of course, the problem for Russia is that they are not able to buy as much despite their extra cash due to sanctions ergo the problem of the strong RUB.

[jaichind]

France's power price situation also looks bad.  I thought they had a solid nuclear power base.  I assume they must be selling that power to Germany pushing up power prices in France.  At some stage it will be everyone for themselves and France needs to cut back power sales to Germany to save itself.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/pro-putin-rapper-opens-starbucks-111907148.html

"Pro-Putin rapper opens Starbucks successor in Moscow"

Russian successor to Starbucks is called Stars Coffee

[NOVA Green]

France's power price situation also looks bad.  I thought they had a solid nuclear power base.  I assume they must be selling that power to Germany pushing up power prices in France.  At some stage it will be everyone for themselves and France needs to cut back power sales to Germany to save itself.

A significant chunk of France's nuclear capacity is currently offline with plants down for maintenance.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If they mean all or most artillery ammunition in general, this official (who, it bears remembering, is far from a neutral actor) has made a claim which does not track with the (admittedly incomplete) picture we have from OSINT (although "starting to" leaves a lot of ambiguity to begin with):

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1560601884666146816
Of course, they may be referring to certain calibers or types (e.g. laser-guided) of ammunition. An LPR artilleryman claimed months ago that a specific calibre was being rationed because one of Russia's four military districts had used all of it. I consider the statement worth posting here not because I believe it, but because of how far it sticks out from other assessments.

I'm extremely skeptical of the widest interpretation, but there's too much I don't know to rule it out. As with the missiles, they are not likely to simply "run out" even if it's true - they'll switch to other kinds of ammunition and pull more stocks from Belarus (and possibly other countries willing to sell), then ration their munitions and decelerate offensives or even switch entirely to defensive operations.

[Storr]

If they mean all or most artillery ammunition in general, this official (who, it bears remembering, is far from a neutral actor) has made a claim which does not track with the (admittedly incomplete) picture we have from OSINT (although "starting to" leaves a lot of ambiguity to begin with):

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1560601884666146816
Of course, they may be referring to certain calibers or types (e.g. laser-guided) of ammunition. An LPR artilleryman claimed months ago that a specific calibre was being rationed because one of Russia's four military districts had used all of it. I consider the statement worth posting here not because I believe it, but because of how far it sticks out from other assessments.

I'm extremely skeptical of the widest interpretation, but there's too much I don't know to rule it out. As with the missiles, they are not likely to simply "run out" even if it's true - they'll switch to other kinds of ammunition and pull more stocks from Belarus (and possibly other countries willing to sell), then ration their munitions and decelerate offensives or even switch entirely to defensive operations.

An interesting thread about Russian ammunition [I am posting the first 6 of 17 tweets]:

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1560350887675133953?s=20&t=59JJ064P1...

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1560350891793948673?s=20&t=59JJ064P1...

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1560350901482786817?s=20&t=59JJ064P1...

[Middle-aged Europe]

France's power price situation also looks bad.  I thought they had a solid nuclear power base.  I assume they must be selling that power to Germany pushing up power prices in France.  At some stage it will be everyone for themselves and France needs to cut back power sales to Germany to save itself.

Thanks for the knowledge assumption, but if I were to assume something I would doubt that there are many electricity exports happening from France to Germany in the summer months. This is a reasonable assumption based on my knowledge that overall Germany's own power exports tend to exceed its imports each year. So if Germany imports power at all it would most likely be happening during the winter when solar does jacksh**t and you are heating with gas.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/18/zelensky-ukraine-wapo-interview-warn-of-war/

"Zelensky faces outpouring of criticism over failure to warn of war"

USA MSM clearly trying to throw Zelensky under the bus to exonerate Biden

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/uk-energy-bills-to-soar-near-3-600-as-price-cap-decision-nears

"UK Energy Bills to Soar Near £3,600 as Price Cap Set to Rise"

UK energy bill price cap is set to rise leading to a surge in consumer energy prices (for many people I think it will almost double.)  There seems to be a movement in the UK to refuse to pay energy bills.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1560592023383445504

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-nord-stream-1-pipeline-shut-three-days-end-aug-2022-08-19/

"Nord Stream 1 pipeline to shut for three days in latest fuel blow to Europe"

More Russian trolling of EU.  I am sure it is just another set of made up excuses by Russia to shut down NS1

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not related to the actual war but to the bidding war for Russian talent that is fleeing the country:

Since I got promoted to corporate treasury last September, I am the one who initiates manual payments for new hires when we have to pay for their visas, plane tickets, apartment deposits + rents, etc. and we have hired at least 25 people from Belarus and Russia since March, mostly engineers and IT people, plus some of their family members. Every month we get several more requests from our HR department.

We are just a medium-sized securities trading bank operating only in the Eurozone; I can only imagine that the bigger tech companies are having an absolute field day with hiring talented people out of Russia and Belarus.

[urutzizu]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

Washington Post exclusive (paywall) on the months preceding the Invasion. A short summary:

- Biden admin was privately fully convinced in Oktober 2021 already that Russia was going to invade (publicly they kept insisting that they thought Putin had not made a decision)
- Invasion plan almost exactly as it panned out was known already then in detail
- Biden’s advisers were confident Ukraine would put up a fight, but had severe concens about Zelensky's abilities and were convinced that Kyiv would eventually fall
- Germany and France were dismissive and Ukrainians were sceptical about US warnings, not helped by US withholding details from Ukraine due to fears about Ukrainian intelligence being infested with Russian moles. Only on Feb. 18-20 (four days before) did US share detailed intelligence with Ukraine and they became fully convinced
- two camps dug in between US/UK/Eastern Europe who thought invasion was inevitable and talks with Russia meaningless and only helpful to call Russia's bluff, and Paris/Berlin who believed US intelligence was faulty due to Iraq/not seeing fall of Kabul regime
- In preparation US quietly increased force posture in Europe from 74,000 to 100,000 troops. (Publicly only far smaller movements were announced) and established a direct communication line from Ukrainian military to U.S. European Command.
- January 12, 2022, CIA Director William Burns traveled to Kiev to warn Zelensky personally about Russian plans and for the first time that Russian special forces planned on capturing/killing him personally in first hours. In the end, Zelensky decided not to release information about the Russian attack or a general mobilisation, or move for personal safety  in order not to cause public panic. He believed that this path would lead to defeat.
- U.S. intel was bewildered by the failure of communication within the Russian military about the imminent Invasion, however only very few thought Russia’s plans might actually fail

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1560719398536626176

America still dropping huge aid to Ukraine. Lots of good things here.

Europe's biggest 6 countries didn't make any new commitments in July, and overall aid has been slowing. My inner optimist tells me it'll pick back up, but if it doesn't, Putin's gamble that NATO won't have the will to keep supplying Ukraine long-term might end up being true unless America ups its own aid to fill in for Europe. In any case, I hope major EU nations consider this a wake-up call that they can't just sit around continuing to neglect their militaries less they find themselves ill-prepared to deal with hostilities in the future that may more directly affect their own interests. NATO doesn't mean much if most of the countries that make it up are incapable of fighting a war longer than a few weeks.

It's weird seeing myself so fixated on this because I was never really a hawk before, but I think I do agree with the signatories of that open letter urging the Biden administration to increase the amount and frequency of aid delivery, including more heavy weapons, aircraft, and long range munitions. Undoubtly heavily influenced by my extended family being in occupied Ukraine but also I think Russia winning this war will represent a continuing threat to peace in Europe and Central Asia, and defeating Russia now & diminishing their war machine will allow the US to focus more on its Asia in the future, and for Europe to be less on edge with the threat of continued Russian aggression looming over them.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Russians looting en masse, possibly indicative of their intent to leave the region, although this could just be a normal thing for them:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558875749725118467
Hard to see how they continue to defend this area, though, at least without significant losses.

somewhat unrelated but what are the X's and V's for?

[Virginiá]

somewhat unrelated but what are the X's and V's for?

No clue. Аndriу might have a better idea, although he hasn't been online in weeks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1560719398536626176
America still dropping huge aid to Ukraine. Lots of good things here.

Europe's biggest 6 countries didn't make any new commitments in July, and overall aid has been slowing.

I've read that piece and think it's crap. The window is arbitrary (especially considering lots was delivered in July and more was announced/delivered in August), the intel seems lacking, and the selection of the six largest economies overlooked that some of these were delivering very little to begin with while much smaller countries were delivering large amounts. Indeed, Spain wasn't even as well-placed to directly support Ukraine's military as e.g. Bulgaria - and that is what the EU joint fund is supposed to be for.

Italy's commitments were always secret, and it may have delivered more howitzers in July. It certain committed some kind of new military aid package in late July, which means the article is just flat-out wrong in this regard. Poland also committed PT-91 tanks towards the end of the month. The UK promised counterbattery radars and 50k Soviet shells that same month - I don't think it had done that before.

Where I do agree with you is that deliveries have slowed down in certain kinds of equipment where surpluses have run low, especially howitzers. This could remain a serious problem.

My inner optimist tells me it'll pick back up, but if it doesn't, Putin's gamble that NATO won't have the will to keep supplying Ukraine long-term might end up being true unless America ups its own aid to fill in for Europe. In any case, I hope major EU nations consider this a wake-up call that they can't just sit around continuing to neglect their militaries less they find themselves ill-prepared to deal with hostilities in the future that may more directly affect their own interests. NATO doesn't mean much if most of the countries that make it up are incapable of fighting a war longer than a few weeks.

It's weird seeing myself so fixated on this because I was never really a hawk before, but I think I do agree with the signatories of that open letter urging the Biden administration to increase the amount and frequency of aid delivery, including more heavy weapons, aircraft, and long range munitions. Undoubtly heavily influenced by my extended family being in occupied Ukraine but also I think Russia winning this war will represent a continuing threat to peace in Europe and Central Asia, and defeating Russia now & diminishing their war machine will allow the US to focus more on its Asia in the future, and for Europe to be less on edge with the threat of continued Russian aggression looming over them.

There's a pretty firm rationale for people generally skeptical of hawkishness to want an imperialist war of choice to fail as badly as possible. The bigger the Russian L, the less likely they are to threaten everyone else and cause a decades-long, expensive arms race (unless some fool decides to make things glow in the dark during this conflict).

[NOVA Green]

Russians looting en masse, possibly indicative of their intent to leave the region, although this could just be a normal thing for them:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558875749725118467
Hard to see how they continue to defend this area, though, at least without significant losses.

somewhat unrelated but what are the X's and V's for?

Might have something to do with the following?

X= Chechen Looters
Z= Eastern Military District Looters
V= Naval Infantry Looters




https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/24/why-do-z-and-v-become-russians-pro-war-symbols/

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1560719398536626176

America still dropping huge aid to Ukraine. Lots of good things here.

Europe's biggest 6 countries didn't make any new commitments in July, and overall aid has been slowing. My inner optimist tells me it'll pick back up, but if it doesn't, Putin's gamble that NATO won't have the will to keep supplying Ukraine long-term might end up being true unless America ups its own aid to fill in for Europe. In any case, I hope major EU nations consider this a wake-up call that they can't just sit around continuing to neglect their militaries less they find themselves ill-prepared to deal with hostilities in the future that may more directly affect their own interests. NATO doesn't mean much if most of the countries that make it up are incapable of fighting a war longer than a few weeks.

It's weird seeing myself so fixated on this because I was never really a hawk before, but I think I do agree with the signatories of that open letter urging the Biden administration to increase the amount and frequency of aid delivery, including more heavy weapons, aircraft, and long range munitions. Undoubtly heavily influenced by my extended family being in occupied Ukraine but also I think Russia winning this war will represent a continuing threat to peace in Europe and Central Asia, and defeating Russia now & diminishing their war machine will allow the US to focus more on its Asia in the future, and for Europe to be less on edge with the threat of continued Russian aggression looming over them.

Virginiá, I too have considered myself generally a long-time "dove", when it comes to the US War Machine and overseas foreign policy initiatives, going back as someone who came of age less than (20) years after the Vietnam War.

The US support for various and multiple brutal governments in Central America in the 1980s, further hardened those sentiments.

I marched in the streets with (500) others in a small town in Oregon against the start of the US War in Afghanistan, as part of a spontaneous "street demo", knowing that the US activities in Afghanistan would likely become something much more than simply "taking out Bin Laden" and "eliminating Al Qaeda".

Marched in the streets of Portland, Oregon in a mass demo of roughly 100,000 people immediately prior to the start of Iraq War 2.0.

But yet, this particular conflict overseas, of which America is playing a significant role in providing Ukraine a multiplicity of benefits (In no particular order):

1.) Political Support--- (Assemble international coalitions designed to isolate Russia).
2.) Economic Support--- (Need I go further?)
3.) Military Support--- ("Team USA is still the biggest overall donor of military hardware to Ukraine by miles compared to GDP)

I firmly and 100% agree that the US and allied nations need to "up the game" a bit.

Still as someone who working in a large MFG Plant, also understand that expanding "Through-Puts (OUTS) " is not as simple as just expanding shift coverage to run on a 24x7 MFG output.

Even if there is spare capacity of advanced tooling systems, GSF of Factory Floor space available with most existing hookups (Electrical, Data, Mechanical and Process Systems), it takes a bit of time to make things happen quickly...

Gotta go through the NOC process AFTER you all ready got all of the designers and engineers submitting their drawings as part of the "Design, Bid, Build model" of Project MGMT...

This would assume fast infusion of project $$$ to get the top talent available for the "Design Phase", not to mention a very short "Bid Model", where typically GCs and even GVT agencies will typically subcontract to the various trade workers.

In this scenario, all of these jobs could and should be either "Union Jobs" or "Prevailing Wage Jobs"

It gets much more complicated when it comes to building new MFG factories (Hypothetically to ramp up production of certain HIMAR compatible missiles).

Lead time for new projects such as this would at minimum likely take 1-1.5 yrs even if fast-tracked.

There is a reason that the lead time for construction of the new Intel Plant in Columbus, Ohio (A city I know quite a bit from (4) yrs in Ohio), is running something like (2) years from the official announcement to the actual intended project construction deadline.

Pretty sure that certain types of potential military conversion factories likely require, similar lead times.

It's not like the US is in WW II and converting the Auto Plants in Detroit from passenger cars to tanks (or anything like that).

[NOVA Green]

US MSM coverage of latest US Arms Package NYT:

Taken together, the new shipment of up to $775 million of weapons and supplies from the Pentagon’s stockpiles illustrates an emerging dual strategy: fueling Ukraine’s immediate artillery fight, while also helping to build up an arsenal to support a counterattack near Kherson, in the country’s south, that has yet to fully materialize.

The latest shipment includes 40 armored vehicles equipped with giant rollers to clear minefields ahead of any Ukraine ground operation, as well as 50 armored troop-carrying Humvees, 1,500 TOW guided missiles and 1,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.

“The mine-clearing is a really good example of how the Ukrainians will need this sort of capability to be able to push their forces forward and retake territory,” a senior Defense Department official told reporters on a conference call on Friday.

The Pentagon is also sending more high-speed anti-radiation missiles, or HARMs — air-to-ground weapons designed to seek and destroy Russian air defense radar. Military technicians have figured out how to integrate the American missile on Ukraine’s Soviet-designed MiG fighter jets to help defeat one of the biggest threats to the Ukrainian air force.

Pentagon officials have emphasized in recent days that its resupply of ammunition for various artillery systems has now reached a regular, sustainable level that Ukrainian commanders can count on as they plan operations.

The official repeatedly declined to comment on a series of attacks and other explosions in Crimea over the past two weeks. Ukrainian officials privately attribute the attacks to an elite Ukrainian special forces unit operating behind enemy lines with the help of local partisan fighters. The strikes have shocked Russian commanders in Crimea, who thought their forces and weapons depots were out of reach of Ukrainian attacks.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/19/world/ukraine-russia-news-war/the-pentagons-latest-package-includes-up-to-775-million-of-weapons-and-supplies-from-its-stockpile?smid=url-share

[NOVA Green]

Really good read on the Russian Intelligence failures in the lead up to Ukraine Invasion 2.0

Was really into authors such as Len Deighton and John Le Carre back in the '80s, so interesting read and just a few selected quotes.

Sorry very good article, but gotta keep my quote count within limits and strongly suggest individuals interested actually do a 3 m.o. online subscription for a relatively small cost.

In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s security service began sending cryptic instructions to informants in Kyiv. Pack up and get out of the capital, the Kremlin collaborators were told, but leave behind the keys to your homes.

The directions came from senior officers in a unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with a prosaic name — the Department of Operational Information — but an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime.

The messages were a measure of the confidence in that audacious plan. So certain were FSB operatives that they would soon control the levers of power in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials, that they spent the waning days before the war arranging safe houses or accommodations in informants’ apartments and other locations for the planned influx of personnel.

The communications exposing these preparations are part of a larger trove of sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services and reviewed by The Washington Post. They offer rare insight into the activities of the FSB — a sprawling service that bears enormous responsibility for the failed Russian war plan and the hubris that propelled it.

The files show that the FSB unit responsible for Ukraine surged in size in the months leading up to the war and was counting on support from a vast network of paid agents in Ukraine’s security apparatus. Some complied and sabotaged Ukraine’s defenses, officials said, while others appear to have pocketed their FSB payments but balked at doing the Kremlin’s bidding when the fighting started.

There are records that add to the mystery of Russian miscalculations. Extensive polls conducted for the FSB show that large segments of Ukraine’s population were prepared to resist Russian encroachment, and that any expectation that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators was unfounded. Even so, officials said, the FSB continued to feed the Kremlin rosy assessments that Ukraine’s masses would welcome the arrival of Russia’s military and the restoration of Moscow-friendly rule.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=hp-top-table-main&itid=lk_inline_manual_17

[NOVA Green]

WSJ long article from earlier today regarding Russian Supply Chain issues, as a direct result of recent weapons systems donated from abroad...

A few select quotes:

Military analysts say the Ukrainian strategy takes advantage of existing weaknesses in the Russian military. The Russian army, they say, is far more reliant on rail transport than other modern militaries. As a result, it has a smaller fleet of trucks equipped to move ammunition and heavy weaponry. And with trains no longer able to get close to the front, those trucks are having to travel further than they were designed for to resupply troops west of the river.

Earlier this month, the Ukrainians hit an ammunition train, disabling the primary train line between Crimea and Kherson, according to the British Defense Ministry.

Gen. Hodges said the Russians would eventually have to pull back from their positions west of the Dnipro River—including the city of Kherson, which sits near where the narrow Inhulets River joins the wider Dnipro River, which Russians must cross to resupply the city.

“If you can’t keep the required inflow of supplies, at some point you have to give ground,” said retired Maj. Gen. Edward Dorman, the former director of logistics and engineering for U.S. Central Command. “Wars have been lost because of logistics.”

Along the southern front line, Ukrainian troops say they can feel the Russian supply problems. “Before we blew the bridges, when we’d hit their artillery positions, they’d replace it in the next moment,” said Roman, an infantry company commander in the same regiment as Yevhen.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-southern-forces-wage-a-slow-campaign-to-wear-the-russians-down-11660906801?mod=hp_lead_pos7