Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

[jaichind]

European natural gas prices.   I just read a news story that today this price just surge 6.7% to 241 reaching a record high.  Gas prices tend to spike in the winter (see 2021 winter spike).  If it is spiking now I wonder what it will look like this winter.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

The Spiegel interview that article lifts from is paywalled, but Kofman (the interviewee) reports something slightly different. He says that Ukraine is likely to go onto some kind of ammunition diet (i.e. ration) because it probably suspects Europe (no mention of the US) has given most of what it is willing to give. In essence, he argues Ukraine will conserve some resources in case they don't receive more, not that they won't receive more.

This would make a lot of sense in the cases of e.g. ammunition for Soviet artillery systems, which the US does not produce and which Europe does not have huge surpluses of (it has probably sent most or all it's willing to part with w.r.t. howitzer shells). Europe can still manufacture these shells, but presumably manufacturing rates are lower than pre-existing surplus stock.

Where his outlook darkens in the interview is w.r.t. a Ukrainian counteroffensive. He speculates that if Ukraine gains no more significant ground before the start of the next year, they may come under pressure to accept a stalemate. Therefore, he argues, there is pressure on the military to attempt some kind of operation before then even if it is unlikely to succeed.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1560225371089522689?s=20&t=KXJkCyRWd7Xdq_...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1560225371089522689?s=20&t=KXJkCyRWd7Xdq_...

Not for long, unless the railway is repeatedly sabotaged.

[DINGO Joe]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

[Torie]

Russia’s Republic of Grief

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/photo-booth/russias-republic-of-grief

If you have ever heard of the Republic of Dagestan, raise your hand. Unfortunately for it, Putin has.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

This needs to be cross-checked with other things.
We shall see how the war continues to go moving forward.

[Torie]

European natural gas prices.   I just read a news story that today this price just surge 6.7% to 241 reaching a record high.  Gas prices tend to spike in the winter (see 2021 winter spike).  If it is spiking now I wonder what it will look like this winter.

For a moment I mistook that chart for my abnormal EKG.

[jaichind]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-militaerexperte-michael-kofman-die-ukraine-steht-vor-einem-dilemma-a-bf8d606b-38e7-4e98-acbe-d37e6a7c019c

This seems to be the Der Spiegel interview but it is behind a paywall

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-militaerexperte-michael-kofman-die-ukraine-steht-vor-einem-dilemma-a-bf8d606b-38e7-4e98-acbe-d37e6a7c019c

This seems to be the Der Spiegel interview but it is behind a paywall

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

Yeah, I found that all on my own, but ain't paying to listen to it.  It's probably just a reworking of a War on the Rocks podcast he did last month--where he provides conjecture on a wide range of scenarios.  Kofman was one of those analysts who got the war way wrong and gets kicked by twitter whenever he pops off.  I don't see any twitter outrage over this so it's likely a propaganda sham.   

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-militaerexperte-michael-kofman-die-ukraine-steht-vor-einem-dilemma-a-bf8d606b-38e7-4e98-acbe-d37e6a7c019c

This seems to be the Der Spiegel interview but it is behind a paywall

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

Yeah, I found that all on my own, but ain't paying to listen to it.  It's probably just a reworking of a War on the Rocks podcast he did last month--where he provides conjecture on a wide range of scenarios.  Kofman was one of those analysts who got the war way wrong and gets kicked by twitter whenever he pops off.  I don't see any twitter outrage over this so it's likely a propaganda sham.  

Kofman got the start wrong (almost everyone did) but he remains one of the best well-known analysts of the conflict who aren't keeping schtum and working for governments. His interview here is not a complete dismissal of Ukrainian prospects.

[DINGO Joe]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

So, anyway the marquee explosion were big ammo depots in

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1560088806921015296

and

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560348503968186370

Of course, the last one being in Russia.

[DINGO Joe]

This is in Luhansk

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1560304828622012417

stakhanov

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1560306504527405060

and maybe a second one in Belgorod

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560353028451999744

There was a video of something in NW Crimea burning but I haven't see any follow up, plus claims that Russian air defense has been activated in Sevastopol and Kerch, but who knows if real or imagined by Rascists.

[Storr]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

Seems so.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1560359215264301058?s=20&t=MUBqhe...

So far tonight (whatever was attacked in Luhansk and Stanakov/Kadiivka was during daylight yesterday):

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1560358564014743554?s=20&t=XbTYhAe-j4w...

[Storr]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

Seems so.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1560359215264301058?s=20&t=MUBqhe...

[snip]

Somewhat clearer video from Nova Kakhovka.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1560360452642701312?s=20&t=XbTYhAe-j4wB...

[Storr]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

Seems so.

[tweet snip]

So far tonight (whatever was attacked in Luhansk and Stanakov/Kadiivka was during daylight yesterday):

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1560358564014743554?s=20&t=XbTYhAe-j4w...

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1560360917551947777?s=20&t=XbTYhAe-...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ok this is pretty worrying.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1560278407954321416?t=WVOtNB_X5bztdZKOEfy...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ok this is pretty worrying.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1560278407954321416?t=WVOtNB_X5bztdZKOEfy...

"Some of you guys are alright."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess they want to starve Ukraine of power?

[Hindsight was 2020]

If and when Ukraine gets Kherson back in wonder if they’ll push for Crimea direct or turn toward Melitopol

[Virginiá]

If and when Ukraine gets Kherson back in wonder if they’ll push for Crimea direct or turn toward Melitopol

There is Kherson the city and Kherson the Oblast/province. If Russia has really lost the entire oblast, then Crimea would be cut off from mainland Ukraine and it would be a pivotal strategic disaster for Russia.

All this is to say that I think Kherson will define the war, because Putin is going to throw everything he has at the AFU in order to keep them from liberating it. If that's not enough, then Russia has probably lost the war, unless Ukraine runs out of steam at the end of that campaign and both essentially have to sue for peace.

At any rate, Crimea would not be an easy campaign as it is a more defensible region, and it would make more sense to take back the mainland first.

[jaichind]

https://newsunrolled.com/world/83177.html

"German Chancellor Baden-Württemberg Kretschmann offered to wipe himself with a cloth instead of taking a shower."

German link

https://www.swp.de/baden-wuerttemberg/ministerpraesident-von-baden-wuerttemberg-im-interview-kretschmann_-_krisenbewaeltigung-wird-fuer-sehr-lange-zeit-der-normalzustand-sein_-66076983.html

Green Party Kretschmann suggests wiping yourself with a damp cloth instead of a shower and heating only one room at home to save electricity and gas.

Reminds me of 1948 GOP senator Taft that said "Eat less meat, and eat less extravagantly" to cut grocery costs which became a key point of attack by the Truman campaign which helped him win an upset re-election.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If and when Ukraine gets Kherson back in wonder if they’ll push for Crimea direct or turn toward Melitopol

There is Kherson the city and Kherson the Oblast/province. If Russia has really lost the entire oblast, then Crimea would be cut off from mainland Ukraine and it would be a pivotal strategic disaster for Russia.

All this is to say that I think Kherson will define the war, because Putin is going to throw everything he has at the AFU in order to keep them from liberating it. If that's not enough, then Russia has probably lost the war, unless Ukraine runs out of steam at the end of that campaign and both essentially have to sue for peace.

One of the reasons why so many analysts talk about a Kherson offensive is because Russian supply routes can be constantly interdicted or cut off entirely, they will be in a much weaker position west of the river.

If that works out for Ukraine, it won't imply the Russian forces east of the river are in a similar position. Taking the city would be significant, but it wouldn't necessary define the war.