Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[JimJamUK]

Are there any estimates how many Ukrainians are left living in occupied territory? (incl Crimea)

Would also be interested in any analysis of the economy in post-February occupied parts of Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

Are there any estimates how many Ukrainians are left living in occupied territory? (incl Crimea)

Wow!

Very good question and one of which I suspect even relative experts on the subject would likely have a hard time answering.

There was a very very good long story in the Economist in their 7/28/22 edition from their 1843 Magazine, during their first Summer "bumper issue" ever.

It was both a really intense human interest story, whose primary sources were actually Ukrainians who had left to Russia from Mariupol, who had no real vested interest in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but effectively with all of the communications cut off, as the war comes closer and closer to their neighborhood they split and crossed the lines into a Russian held neighborhood, after a Russian shell had caused the death of a child, and permanent injuries to several others...

The article also provides additional insights from primary sources, into a few of the "Filtration Camps", not to mention their experiences once they passed the "screening process".

 which provided  titled the following:

"East of Mariupol: what happened to the Ukrainians who fled to Russia?

Some refugees who went east faced interrogations. Others were met with cups of tea and kindness

More than 6m people have fled Ukraine since the war began. Most of these went west, but around 1.5m have entered Russia, according to the un (some think this is an overestimate). Many who have gone east have come from occupied territory. In the early weeks of the war there were reports of Russians forcing people onto evacuation buses and transporting them to the Donetsk People’s Republic.

So if we assume anyone who lived within Ukrainian territorial boundaries post the 2014 border can be properly considered "Ukrainian", and then we assume that the 1.5 Million Ukrainians who went to Russia are subtracted from the post 2014 "border" we have at least a certain sense if one were to run Census numbers from pre- 2/22 numbers.

Tricky part would likely to assess how many Ukrainians evacuated Russian Occupied territories prior to the occupation, or even in some cases able to head West and not East.

Very good question, since Sir Woodbury, we haven't really seen that much coverage of the migrations of civilian populations within Ukraine within the past couple months, especially closer to the front lines, where Ukrainian officials periodically call for civilians to evacuate as the Russian offenses used to heat up.

Still, just because the MSM isn't covering it that much, I'm pretty sure that various NGOs are likely trying to track internal and external mass-migrations within a massive war zone, simply in order to help assist in providing resources to civilian refugees, as well as steering them towards resources provided by the EU in the event of external migrants.

Interestingly enough, I can imagine that it will be much easier in the future for Ukrainian passport holders to obtain work and residency papers in both Europe and the US, than it will be for those currently holding Russian passports.

[NOVA Green]

Really decent read from The Economist from 8/11/22 regarding Ukrainian Conscripts from Russian Occupied territory, being forced into war...

He is luckier than others. Since the start of the war Russian forces and leaders in the occupied “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk are said to have mobilised some 100,000 men. Ukrainian officials say 25,000 conscripts from the occupied territories have been killed or are missing in action, an improbably high figure. Russian sources mention about 3,000 dead, an improbably low one. But data suggest that Ukrainians from the separatist republics are dying at a higher rate than troops from Russia. By June 2022 more than half of the original members of the Donetsk militia had been killed or wounded in combat, reckons Britain’s defence ministry.

Pro-Russian sympathies run deep in Donetsk and Luhansk. Thousands of the men Russia has deployed to the eastern front are loyalists who have seen action frequently since 2014. Many of them have welcomed the chance to fight Russia’s war. But interviews with relatives and activists suggest that most of the new conscripts are unprepared, underequipped and unwilling. “He told me many of them did not know how to use weapons, and nobody wanted to fight,” says Alina, a woman whose brother, a schoolteacher from Donetsk, also ended up in Kharkiv. “Their commanders told them they would be shot if they turned back.”

In March groups of women, outraged that their husbands had been sent to the front, repeatedly confronted officials in Donetsk and Luhansk. Their protests escalated when the first bodies returned. Conscription was reportedly paused as a result. But now it seems to be restarting, albeit more cautiously. On August 1st 21 men were enlisted in Donetsk, says Pavel Lisyansky, of the Eastern Human Rights Group, a watchdog. Conscription also seems to have begun in bits of eastern Ukraine that Russia has only recently captured, says Mr Arestovych. That includes the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which were taken in June and July.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/11/russia-is-forcing-ukrainian-conscripts-into-battle


https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/11/russia-is-forcing-ukrainian-conscripts-into-battle

[Frodo]

It looks it is the beginning of the end for Russia's occupation of Kherson:

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1558563995451133952

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1558475280221671425?t=LaJc1vCi9WsB4engNDfX5...

[Frodo]

If (and when) Ukraine liberates Kherson and reclaims all the territory west of the Dneiper, they can then concentrate their forces almost exclusively on retaking the rest of eastern Ukraine that they had lost since the beginning of the Russian invasion.  And I am not just talking lost territory:

Russia now controls at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine's energy, metal and mineral deposits, report says

Those resources are going to be crucial in rebuilding Ukraine after Russia's defeat and the end of the war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if Ukraine *does* retake Kherson (and I'm still very much in "believe it when I see it" territory there) can we allow a certain poster back on here for a day or two? Just for the lolz

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1558721714120425472

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1558808417644470273

[Woody]

I have heard of the incoming liberation of Kherson since early April, let's not jump to conclusions yet.

[Virginiá]

Russians looting en masse, possibly indicative of their intent to leave the region, although this could just be a normal thing for them:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558875749725118467

Hard to see how they continue to defend this area, though, at least without significant losses.

[NOVA Green]

Russians looting en masse, possibly indicative of their intent to leave the region, although this could just be a normal thing for them:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558875749725118467

Hard to see how they continue to defend this area, though, at least without significant losses.

One could certainly make a strong argument that mass looting within occupied Ukraine tends to be fairly widespread and accepted among rank-and-file Russian soldiers, especially if they don't have senior level commanders locally available to put a halt to it.

For example, we can look back to reports from early on in the war after Russian forces had retreated from the outskirts of Kyiv and Sumy back to Belarus, and massive "black markets" where ordinary Russian soldiers are selling looted Ukrainian goods from people's homes.

It is definitely much more common and accepted than many of the more heinous war crimes committed by Russian troops in Ukraine, such as rape, torture, execution of civilians, and even by all accounts torture and execution of suspected or actual Ukrainian active military or suspected Ukrainian partisans, which would be more common than crimes against perceived civilians.

But yes, I would tend to agree that this jives with the report from Kim about how Russian top military commanders have gone over to the other side of the river, which leaves a bit of a breakdown when it comes to "keeping the troops in line", in what is after all an extremely "top-down" military culture, with a lack of NCOs empowered to maintain military discipline.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1557819398647418882?s=20&t=OMwdtoVPiC_LIo...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If (and when) Ukraine liberates Kherson and reclaims all the territory west of the Dneiper, they can then concentrate their forces almost exclusively on retaking the rest of eastern Ukraine that they had lost since the beginning of the Russian invasion.  And I am not just talking lost territory:

Russia now controls at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine's energy, metal and mineral deposits, report says

Those resources are going to be crucial in rebuilding Ukraine after Russia's defeat and the end of the war.

The Kherson region and other parts of Southern Ukraine are the agricultural breadbasket of the country. The Donbass is filled with lots of minerals and gas as well.

Most of the heavy industry in the Soviet era was built in the South and East from Kharkiv to Odessa.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1557350283453370375?t=W5x-Sv3yIO32v4Lbb_...

Don't know who this random Twitter dude is, but still..

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1557459646394372097?s=20&t=CVjwsFSbP...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557089834090602500?s=20&t=Z9ptmU...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1557350283453370375?t=W5x-Sv3yIO32v4Lbb_...

Don't know who this random Twitter dude is, but still..

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1557459646394372097?s=20&t=CVjwsFSbP...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557089834090602500?s=20&t=Z9ptmU...

So... looks like we might have some random "subvert city" Twitter posters from deep behind enemy lines.

Hopefully any allegations regarding the identity of a Twitter poster, will not land anybody into the Russian "Filtration", and "Torture Camps", let alone permanently "disappeared".

Anybody on this forum who tries to claim that the current Russian Government is not the equivalent of a "Fascist State", must be really high on all sorts of hard drugs, the like of which I have not experimented with in (20) years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wagner Group posted to social media the address of one of their bases, LOL. HIMARs have already taken care of it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1559140069604212736?s=20&t=qA5_ks2D...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1559142355252531201?s=20&t=qA5_ks2D...

[Storr]

Big if true:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1559191826548023296?s=20&t=ZMZUxu...

"Kherson, Antonovsky bridge, one of these days (probably before the last arrival), pay attention to the queues for the crossing for ordinary people."

[There are Russian propaganda signs placed above the queue and not a single "Z' on any of the vehicles waiting in line.]

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1559157675694374913?s=20&t=xI-BnReLfeJ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1559140069604212736?s=20&t=qA5_ks2D...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1559142355252531201?s=20&t=qA5_ks2D...

Abridged English translation:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1559254208641212417?s=20&t=xI-BnReL...

[NOVA Green]

NYT article from today about how Ukrainian Factories have increasingly moved West within the country, to maintain a less risky MFG environment and maintain business continuity, as fluidity continues on the Southern and Eastern fronts:

It is an unusual  arrangement for unusual times: Above a factory floor in Lviv, Ukraine, where Volodomyr Mysysk has relocated his furniture-making business, he and his 15 employees have become roommates. They have brought their children and their dogs, and share a kitchen above the machinery where they spend their days reviving a company that could have been destroyed by the war.

But Mr. Mysysk, 23, and his workers, who came to Lviv from the bombarded city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, have benefited from a spirit of solidarity and a government policy that aims to rescue  industries threatened by an invading Russian army and help reassemble them, piece by piece, in cities along Ukraine’s western frontier.

This region is quickly being remade into the new economic heartland of Ukraine, with more than 200 transplanted businesses that make just about everything, including paint, construction materials and parts for electric vehicles.

Factories in Russian-occupied areas were packed up and moved on trains and trucks, and are being resurrected in the west. Manufacturers are creating jobs and hunting for skilled workers. Now closer to Poland — Ukraine’s gateway to Germany and western Europe — the reborn businesses are forging ties with the European Union, which Ukraine hopes to join soon.

Oleksandr Oskalenko, the managing director of Pozhmashina, a maker of fire trucks and agricultural vehicles, halted production in March at its sprawling, modern factory in Chernihiv, the site of a brutal siege by the Russians, and looked to the safety of his 550 employees.

When President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an economic program in April to rescue businesses from the war-torn east, Mr. Oskalenko jumped at the chance. “We took the factory apart piece by piece and put it onto trains to be shipped out,” he said.

Beyond the 200 companies that have already moved,  another 800 have applied for relocation, said Volodomyr Korud, vice president of Lviv’s Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/business/war-ukraine-factories.html

[NOVA Green]

WaPo update regarding the Russian Crimean Air Force base mystery, as they roll through sources and footage...

Honestly, this one might be better using one of your WaPo "freebies", since it also includes visual photos and not quite sure how I can encapsulate using simply a handful of selective quotes.

To better understand what happened in Saki, The Washington Post analyzed more than two dozen videos, spoke to eyewitnesses, and consulted eight military and geospatial experts, confirming that at least six explosions rocked the base over the course of nearly an hour.

Russia said the incident resulted from the accidental detonation of munitions at the site — a theory that The Post’s analysis does not rule out. Crimean leader Sergey Aksyonov raised the terrorist threat level to “yellow” but did not comment on Ukraine’s potential involvement.

Ukraine’s vague explanations have inspired various theories from analysts, including that special forces planted explosive charges at the base or used drones to fire or deliver bombs, or that the country’s military used a precision weapon with a range beyond systems it is known to operate.

Experts said The Post’s analysis raises questions about how any attack was conducted, and whether it benefited from secondary blasts caused by fires at the base.

“The question remains: How many of these explosions were caused by independent events, versus a chain effect of initial exploding ordnance or fuel that then caught other ordnance or fuel on fire?” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp.

Bronk said the delay between explosions at the base made it unlikely that missiles were responsible for all the damage. A more plausible scenario, he said, was that Ukrainian forces were close enough to fly drones, and were able to either drop small munitions or fly directly into targets, causing wider explosions. “You can almost picture the bad damage control,” he said.


Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the damage to planes in revetments suggested they could have been targeted. An analysis conducted by the defense intelligence provider Janes also assessed that the air base was likely struck by “relatively large munitions.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/08/14/crimea-airbase-attack/

@Virginiá... thoughts?

Got any supporting documentation regarding the "wildfire theory"?

Still really looking likely possibly Russian Soldiers might have been smoking in areas with uncovered areas in their explosive storage facilities, with possibly (?) drones that might have created an initial reaction?

Still, does that explain the craters, where supposedly Russian Air Assets were protected by a certain degree of "blast-proof walls"?







Really thinking it might actually have been caused by Russian Soldiers smoking in prohibited areas, combined with a some random Ukrainian Drone Strikes, although I'm still scratching my new "Punk Rock Hair" about how that might occur in the major Russian facility in Crimea of all places???

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We've seen more of these deep strikes (beyond official HIMARS/Tochka-U/Vilkha range) recently.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1559404410412961793
They probably can't all be "smoking accidents," the US has denied sending ATACMS, and any country willing to do more than the US probably doesn't have it. Alternative reasons for an uptick could include:

1. Expansion or activation of SOF/partisan/sabotage network. But why so involved now? Ukraine claims they were involved in this particular strike, but that could well be a psyop or explained by them playing a facilitating role (e.g. reporting targets which would then be subjected to strikes).
2. Suppression of Russian air defences around Kherson allowing for more successful missile attacks or airstrikes into Crimea. Given the recent supply of anti-air defence missiles, this isn't implausible, but I'd expect more claims of destroyed air defence sites first from the Ukrainian side.
3. Supply of something from foreign partners, perhaps not intended for a ground attack role but repurposed for this. Most (all?) of these repurposed munitions would not be ballistic, which ties into the next option.
4. Uptick in domestic production of cruise or ballistic missiles. Videos around the time of the Saki airbase strike would suggest ballistic missiles to be more likely, as it is probable a cruise missile would have been travelling slowly enough to be caught on camera. Here, I'm mostly taking the word of faceless analysts who were signal boosted by credible OSINT accounts after they made this claim - but I can vouch for ballistic munitions being harder to spot (non-military context and less dangerous than it sounds, but a rocket I'd worked on once went ballistic and none of us saw it until it had landed in a nearby field).

Given the damage to Ukrainian industry, I would expect an uptick in domestic production of cruise/ballistic missiles to be small in most cases (for instance, the Hrim-2 ballistic missile system which is supposed to still be under development or the Neptune cruise missile of which only one battery existed prior to the war). However, an upgrade of pre-existing stocks would require less manufacturing capacity and be significantly faster once the necessary technological developments were made. I'll mention the potential for upgrading the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile to have a ground-attack mode here, but this is not my main point as Ukraine isn't likely to have many Neptunes to begin with.

In particular, I am wondering how many of these strikes have been conducted using deactivated, long-range, Soviet reconnaissance drones from the '60s-'90s. These were mostly made by Tupolev, were jet powered and had ranges of hundreds or thousands of kilometers (but only some of them could be flown more than once). They look like this:



Being modelled on an abandoned missile design, they look (and function) a lot like cruise missiles - just without the payload, and with parachutes for guidance and a soft landing. A lot (most?) of them were left in Belarus and Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR. Russia used its own for target practice and after the Donbas war kicked off, Ukraine reported reactivation of 68 of its own, ostensibly for the same purpose. More may well have been overhauled since. After the 2022 invasion began, these ended up landing in Russian-controlled (and to a lesser extent, Ukrainian-controlled) territory, an unlaunched batch having previously been seized by Russia during its initial advances. It was speculated that they could be used to "bait" and thereby reveal the locations of enemy air defence systems.

One even ended up going off-course and landed in Croatia, where the initial investigation claimed to have found a small aerial bomb inside the drone. Subsequent incidents in Russian-controlled territory involved footage of what looked like secondary explosions behind enemy lines followed by Russian social media accounts releasing footage of Tupolev drone wreckage. Russia has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine has armed these drones - Ukraine denied responsibility for the incident in Croatia, but they have made no comments on whether they've turned the drones into bargain bin cruise missiles. It could well be feasible to replace the camera/reconnaissance equipment with a bomb - in theory, a missile would best be delivered without the parachutes, too, but one of them might be kept as a crude guidance system and (in the visually confirmed cases where there are multiple parachutes per drone) it is possible the cruise missile modification was primitive/still in development and could have since been improved.

If Ukraine has recently and substantially increased its inventory of land attack missiles with >200km range - this might become clear if the current tempo of deep strikes is maintained or increased - I would consider a modification of these reconnaissance drones to be one of the most likely causes.

[Virginiá]

This video was apparently taken of large store of Russian munitions and heavy weapons in Dzankhoy, Crimea, which later became the target of today's attack lol

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1559465873429200903

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1559433800664453121

[Virginiá]

I think if Ukraine did get ATACMS missiles, we'll eventually find out one way or another. Looking at the list of publicly known operators, the US and Romania seems like the only plausible countries. IIRC, Romania would have to get permission from the US to transfer even one to Ukraine. They also only have around 50 missiles, so if it was them, these long range attacks are not likely to continue for very long.

The idea of partisans is intriguing to me, as you can see from the first tweet video of people passing by tons of munitions just laying out in the open by a train tracks - it wouldn't be too difficult for a determined individual to set off an uncontrollable chain of explosions there. Especially with cheap drones rigged with grenades or other explosives. My only question would be, why now? Why wasn't this happening months ago? So that makes it a bit harder for me to believe.