Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia has blocked Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Europe again, for another 30 days. I think Kazakhstan is likely to continue with restrictions on Russian coal transfers as a result.

In the long term, this is very good news for Turkey. Disrupting energy for a day or two during ideal “special operations” had allowed Russia to wield economic power effectively without pushing away their customers in the long term, but this is the kind of crisis that promotes alternative infrastructure.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1544645486472200192
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1544633966501761026
Ukraine partisans seemed to of destroyed a ammunition warehouse in the heart if Kherson while reports are of heavy fighting west of the city

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1544645486472200192
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1544633966501761026
Ukraine partisans seemed to of destroyed a ammunition warehouse in the heart if Kherson while reports are of heavy fighting west of the city

“Heavy battles west of Kherson [city?]” doesn’t tell us all that much, given that the Ukrainian Army is only a few villages away in parts of the province. That account sometimes puts out useful information, but tweets like these which are entirely qualitative aren’t in that number.

[CumbrianLefty]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

[jaichind]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

I am sure Putin is behind this one as well just like how Putin was behind Trump's election in 2016 and behind the current Bulgarian political crisis.  Amazing such a powerful person as Putin cannot win a war against Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

There have actually been people seriously claiming this, yes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

[LabourJersey]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

Why would the next PM, whomever they be, not be as pro-Ukraine as Johnson? Johnson clearly likes to portray himself at this uniquely pro-Ukraine voice on the world stage, but I don't think in terms of nuts-and-bolts logistical support that a different PM would be that dramatically different

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

Why would the next PM, whomever they be, not be as pro-Ukraine as Johnson? Johnson clearly likes to portray himself at this uniquely pro-Ukraine voice on the world stage, but I don't think in terms of nuts-and-bolts logistical support that a different PM would be that dramatically different

I think our next PM will remain pro-Ukraine, but BoJo was often prepared to take bigger, “riskier” and more expensive steps because his political career was foundering and he needed short-term fixes. He also got to cosplay as Churchill, who he is particularly familiar with.

[LabourJersey]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

Why would the next PM, whomever they be, not be as pro-Ukraine as Johnson? Johnson clearly likes to portray himself at this uniquely pro-Ukraine voice on the world stage, but I don't think in terms of nuts-and-bolts logistical support that a different PM would be that dramatically different

I think our next PM will remain pro-Ukraine, but BoJo was often prepared to take bigger, “riskier” and more expensive steps because his political career was foundering and he needed short-term fixes. He also got to cosplay as Churchill, who he is particularly familiar with.

Fair point, but BoJo's love of Churchillian optics isn't unusual among Tories (at least in my outsider point of view, anyway). Plus whomever gets the job will want to assert themselves on the world stage, so I figure a Prime Minister Truss/Sunak/Patel/etc would do similar things.

[jaichind]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

[rc18]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

Always easy to say that for other people.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/6/russia-destroy-us-himar-weapons-in-ukraine-defence-ministry

"Russia claims advanced US rocket launchers destroyed in Ukraine"

Russia MoD claims they destroyed 2 HIMARS systems.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

Always easy to say that for other people.

It’s easier to answer that question either way for other people. Many Ukrainians might consider a number of things more important than lost land, especially if regaining it requires a bloody and uncertain effort.

Edit: Of course, the question is largely irrelevant while Russia advances across the Donbas. Regardless of Ukraine’s stances, a negotiated settlement is extremely unlikely so long as Russia believes it can continue to advance by force.

[jaichind]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

Always easy to say that for other people.

It’s easier to answer that question either way for other people. Many Ukrainians might consider a number of things more important than lost land, especially if regaining it requires a bloody and uncertain effort.

Yes but the poll does give an indication on how much Germans want to pay and fund the Ukraine war effort both in direct cost of economic and military aid as well as indirect cost like Russian sanctions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

Question: What were the polling numbers on the Munich Agreement in the UK in 1938?

[Storr]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/6/russia-destroy-us-himar-weapons-in-ukraine-defence-ministry

"Russia claims advanced US rocket launchers destroyed in Ukraine"

Russia MoD claims they destroyed 2 HIMARS systems.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1544621329378426880?s=20&t=hYH78AY...
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1544630658953351170?s=20&t=oGA3V3s7...

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/general-staff-conscripts-reservists-cannot-leave-city-of-residence-without-permission-from-military-enlistment-office

"General Staff: Conscripts, reservists cannot leave city of residence without permission from military enlistment office."

Ukraine's general staff says that "all people subject to military service, conscripts, and reservists would have to obtain permission from the local military registration and enlistment office in order to leave their place of residence "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/06/zelensky-criticises-top-general-imposing-restrictions-army-recruits/

"Don’t make decisions without me, frustrated Volodymyr Zelensky orders general"

It seems Zelensky is saying that this order was made without his approval and he demands the Ukraine general staff not to make decisions without consulting him.

[CumbrianLefty]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

Question: What were the polling numbers on the Munich Agreement in the UK in 1938?

Polling was in its infancy then, but opinion was actually pretty divided IIRC. The people cheering when Chamberlain returned with his "piece of paper" certainly didn't represent everybody.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

Crimea has been occupied for 8 years, I don't think Ukraine is getting it back.

[nicholas.slaydon]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

Crimea has been occupied for 8 years, I don't think Ukraine is getting it back.

"Alsace-Lorraine has been occupied for 43 years there is no way France is ever getting it back"- Central Powers appeaser in 1914.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

Crimea has been occupied for 8 years, I don't think Ukraine is getting it back.

"Alsace-Lorraine has been occupied for 43 years there is no way France is ever getting it back"- Central Powers appeaser in 1914.

So basically Ukraine isn't getting it back without a world war? As bad as WW1 was, at least it didn't have nukes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RTL poll in Germany on "should Ukraine give up territory for peace?" has Yes/No at 47/41

I assume they'd also be in favour of giving East Germany back too?

Crimea has been occupied for 8 years, I don't think Ukraine is getting it back.

Not in the short term, no.
And I doubt even a "liberal" Russian government could hand the territory back in the future.
The thing about Ukraine "losing territory for peace" is that it's a double-edged sword for Russia. They get more land, but they further weaken the cultural pull they have on that giant mass of land that was in Russia's orbit for literally hundreds of years before 2014.
Is it worth losing that?
Imo, "lose enough Russophone lands to make Ukraine's center of gravity be further away from Russia, but not enough of it to actually increase the power of your hand that much", looks like the worst of both worlds for Russia from a soft power point of view.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1544787098196115459
More and more social media evidence of increased partisan activity in Kherson the closer Ukraine is getting 😎