Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 879497 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #12600 on: July 04, 2022, 09:12:38 AM »
The street in front of UK embassy in Moscow has been renamed to Luhansk People's Republic Square
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Storr
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« Reply #12601 on: July 04, 2022, 10:24:57 AM »


Relatedly, first daytime video of a US built HIMARS launch:
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jaichind
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« Reply #12602 on: July 04, 2022, 12:24:09 PM »
Russian salaries reaches an all-time high in USD terms.  Of course, that is based on a very strong RUB at 55 when it should be something like 70-80.
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Storr
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« Reply #12603 on: July 04, 2022, 12:59:56 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2022, 01:16:09 PM by Storr »
 Something adjacent to the Donetsk railway station is on fire. Ammunition can be heard cooking off:







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Virginiá
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« Reply #12604 on: July 04, 2022, 02:13:33 PM »

Now they just need to deliver 100+ more HIMARS launchers and thousands of guided rockets and it'll be even more beautiful. The 8 from the US and 6-10 from the UK/other EU countries is a good start but not nearly enough.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12605 on: July 04, 2022, 02:29:38 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on July 04, 2022, 02:13:33 PM

Now they just need to deliver 100+ more HIMARS launchers and thousands of guided rockets and it'll be even more beautiful. The 8 from the US and 6-10 from the UK/other EU countries is a good start but not nearly enough.

The quantities of rockets currently seem to matter more than the number of launchers. The US aid packages tend to be announced every 2 weeks and Ukraine got about 300 GMLRS’ worth ammunition in the last one, assuming munitions aren’t overvalued in the aid packages (which could well be the case, given precedent).

This is less than the pre-war rate of production, but (if consistent) much bigger than Ukraine’s Tochka supply.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12606 on: July 04, 2022, 02:35:57 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/04/ukrainian-flag-raised-over-snake-island-after-russian-retreat

"Ukrainian flag raised over Snake Island after Russian retreat"

The Russians claim that the Ukrainians planted the flag via a helicopter.

It seems this is a great opportunity for Ukraine to post a picture like the one below but no such picture seems to be forthcoming.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12607 on: July 04, 2022, 03:08:38 PM »
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Storr
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« Reply #12608 on: July 04, 2022, 05:54:39 PM »


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Virginiá
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« Reply #12609 on: July 04, 2022, 08:32:12 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 04, 2022, 02:29:38 PM
The quantities of rockets currently seem to matter more than the number of launchers. The US aid packages tend to be announced every 2 weeks and Ukraine got about 300 GMLRS’ worth ammunition in the last one, assuming munitions aren’t overvalued in the aid packages (which could well be the case, given precedent).

This is less than the pre-war rate of production, but (if consistent) much bigger than Ukraine’s Tochka supply.

The number of launchers is by almost any measure, inadequate, though. We're talking about 12 - 18 or so. At least 4, but probably more like 8 of which haven't even been delivered yet. It also has to be considered that some of these will eventually get destroyed or otherwise lost. Unless something has changed, Ukrainians were not given rockets capable of the maximum distance (~300km) due to concerns they would be used on targets inside Russia, so these will need to be used close to the front, introducing more risk. Right now they are just being used for high value targets, but if the overall goal of NATO here is to make a major difference in the war, this isn't going to cut it. Not that any single conventional weapon would, but as far as opinions from former defense officials go, Ukraine needs at least between 60 - 100 of these launchers.

I've read on Ukrainian news that at least the first 4 were supposed to be for learning purposes, so it's possible America started out small and intended to ramp up once they had trained enough people on how to use it, which makes sense, but this isn't guaranteed to be the case.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12610 on: July 04, 2022, 10:22:00 PM »
Quote from: Storr on July 04, 2022, 12:59:56 PM
Something adjacent to the Donetsk railway station is on fire. Ammunition can be heard cooking off:





Ben has a solid history when it comes to geo-loc work.

Thanks for giving him some street creds!!!
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jaichind
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« Reply #12611 on: July 05, 2022, 03:26:20 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-03/iran-slashes-the-cost-of-its-oil-to-compete-with-russia-in-china#xj4y7vzkg

"Iran Slashes Cost of Its Oil to Compete With Russia in China"

Fits with my narrative that the world energy market is bifurcating into two markets, one high-cost market where buyers will not buy from Russia and one low-cost market where buyers will buy from Russia.  India used to import Iran oil but was pushed by the Trump administration into dramatically reducing its Iran oil imports.  These discounts might incentivize India to re-starting Iran's oil imports.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12612 on: July 05, 2022, 06:59:32 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2022, 07:05:24 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
The Royal United Services Institute is not a neutral party, but they are at least non-governmental and appear to have more data at their fingertips than the average outlet. They've published their assessment of the war ahead, identifying key strengths and weaknesses in the armies and what should be done to improve Ukraine's position  (laid out well in the executive summary and conclusion): https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory

It's worth noting most of this was probably written before the arrival of HIMARS, which they talk up a fair bit. That said, it is not a wunderwaffen and is currently deployed in very small quantities.

The conditions they suggest are most likely necessary for Ukraine to retake substantial amounts of territory seem stricter, to me, than what its "allies" are willing to meet. They include more training (including officer training), and better-coordinated, qualitatively different aid including orders from industry (this seems to be happening a bit in the latest US aid package, but not really at scale).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12613 on: July 05, 2022, 09:23:59 AM »
Quote from: Storr on July 04, 2022, 05:54:39 PM




More of this sort of thing please Smiley
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #12614 on: July 05, 2022, 10:48:55 AM »
Quote from: Blue3 on July 02, 2022, 03:25:52 PM
What do the residents of Crimea, formerly Ukrainian citizens, think of the 2022 invasion?

I know many were pro-Russian and let Crimea be annexed, relatively quickly and peacefully.

But after being a part of Ukraine for decades, I wonder what they think of all this?

my understanding is that most of the population that was pro-Ukrainian left, and there's been a huge influx of Russians, particularly Russian military and their families, so the population right now is very heavily ethnic Russian and pro-Russian. And despite its strategic value, Crimea is a poison pill for whichever country that possesses it: for Ukraine, it's because it means having a large pro-Russian population; for Russia, it's because of the economic cost.
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Badger
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« Reply #12615 on: July 05, 2022, 11:11:01 AM »
Quote from: bilaps on July 02, 2022, 06:12:16 AM
Quote from: Storr on July 01, 2022, 04:33:06 PM


Before someone claims this was a "twitter offensive":



Well, they did take the village. And imagine my surprise, when they DO take a village there is a footage to verify. What stops them for providing footage with other villages they supposedly take? You can't shoot a video from the place you captured if you didn't capture it.

In the meantime Lysychansk is being stormed from different directions, I don't have a clue what Ukrainians are trying to do there, but entire Luhansk oblast will be in Russian hands very soon.

Why I haven't put your insufferable ass on ignore before now is beyond me.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12616 on: July 05, 2022, 11:12:14 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-berlin-envoy-draws-israeli-polish-ire-with-views-ww2-nationalist-2022-07-01/

"Ukraine's Berlin envoy draws Israeli, Polish ire with views on WW2 nationalist"

Despite Ukraine government attempt to keep the Bandera out of discussion, especially because Russia uses support for Bandera as "proof" that the Ukraine government is pro-Nazi, his name keeps on coming up.
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Logical
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« Reply #12617 on: July 05, 2022, 11:17:12 AM »
Quote from: CumbrianLefty on July 05, 2022, 09:23:59 AM
Quote from: Storr on July 04, 2022, 05:54:39 PM




More of this sort of thing please Smiley
You're in luck. Infrastructure in Donetsk in being hit every single day since HIMARS arrived.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12618 on: July 05, 2022, 11:18:00 AM »
https://www.globalvillagespace.com/russia-tops-indias-list-of-fertilizer-suppliers/

"Russia tops India’s list of fertilizer suppliers"

Looks like India also had an import surge of Russian fertilizers which is bought at a discount.  India is one of the big winners of this war from from a geopolitical and economic point of view.
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Badger
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« Reply #12619 on: July 05, 2022, 11:38:55 AM »
Quote from: Virginiá on July 03, 2022, 02:23:19 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on July 03, 2022, 02:14:15 PM
Months ago, people noted (correctly) that it would be regrettable for things like this to become some kind of shibboleth. While you having a personal view on this is understandable, it is an Inks-tier abuse of mod authority to act in this way, methinks. In any case, Luh*nsk is in fact an exonym (in the sense it's a name given to it that most people living there would not use as a first choice to refer to it)! Spelled with a G (as it is in Russian) or an H (as it is in Ukrainian), who freaking cares? It's clear what it's referring to. Billions of people in the Third World would find this a silly line to draw in the sand (regardless of whichever stand one does take).

Okay, don't care, Tim.

This is just (chef's kiss).
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jaichind
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« Reply #12620 on: July 05, 2022, 02:19:49 PM »
https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/general-staff-conscripts-reservists-cannot-leave-city-of-residence-without-permission-from-military-enlistment-office

"General Staff: Conscripts, reservists cannot leave city of residence without permission from military enlistment office."

Ukraine's general staff says that "all people subject to military service, conscripts, and reservists would have to obtain permission from the local military registration and enlistment office in order to leave their place of residence "
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jaichind
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« Reply #12621 on: July 05, 2022, 02:35:22 PM »
Press-secretary of Odessa oblast civil-military administration Bratchuk: "If not all, then most of the men, as well as most of the women, will go to war since the troops that are now on the front line will simply need to be replaced,"

What Huh? If true get clearance from Zelensky before saying this ?
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Logical
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« Reply #12622 on: July 05, 2022, 03:26:56 PM »
Interesting development. There are rumors from both Russian and Ukrainian war channels that both sides are preparing for a border war in the Northeastern border (Sumy, Chernihiv). Cross border raids, shelling of border posts, and sabotage have intensified since Russia's retreat last April. The formation of a new independent corps appears to support the idea of another front reopening.
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Storr
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« Reply #12623 on: July 05, 2022, 07:53:19 PM »


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Storr
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« Reply #12624 on: July 05, 2022, 08:30:45 PM »
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