Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057

One would presume that the Russians moved south of the bridge before blowing it, but one never knows.

Dudchany does bring a whole new strategic area in range of Himars once fully established.

More of an annoyance than anything else. The AFU can easily bypass it a few miles to the north.

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What are Rashists front lines doing?

this lol

https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1576962749141495808

(won't post the video because it's a bit much for this forum)

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At this rate, Ukraine will soon be right on top of the Nova Kharkova dam crossing, and if that gets taken, Russia's ability to supply the Kherson grouping will be significantly degraded even in its already degraded state. I don't think Russia's positions on the west bank will be sustainable at all at that point.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1577280165377638400

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Taking lots of land west of the Dnieper, especially along the Inhulets (which has been used as a defensive line) is good news for Ukraine, but this should be kept in perspective.

On the one hand, a smaller Russian presence west of the river means interdiction of supplies is going to be easier for Ukraine. It's also likely the defenses further back are not as strong as the prepared defenses Ukraine just broke through.

On the other hand, the frontline is currently shorter than it was thanks to the Russian retreats and the garrison west of the river has a smaller area to supply and defend. This means manpower could be less of an issue for Russia. Though supply may now be harder for them, they are probably going to need slightly fewer supplies than they did before. All of the newly liberated territory is extremely rural, so it's not like the Kharkiv offensive in which lots of people have been freed.

If they get to the crossing, they'll at least have freed Beryslav, which seems to be one of the few significant towns occupied west of the Dnieper. "The city of Dadyiv Brid," as propagandists on both sides put it, is a very generous overstatement for a village with a pre-war population of ~1.2k.

Edit: what I find striking about the Kherson counteroffensive is how many T-62s the Russian defenders in it seem to be using. They form a much greater proportion of the losses than on other fronts; perhaps they were specifically assigned to units deployed to Kherson for logistical reasons. They, (most likely) their parts and their ammunition are all lighter than the equivalents for T-64/72/80/90 tanks.

Yeah, these are good points. My thoughts are mostly contingent on reduced supplies actually reaching the Kherson grouping. Even more so considering that these rapid breakthroughs are usually accompanied by captured front-line ammo/supply stockpiles and captured heavy weapons that couldn't be moved back fast enough. As far as logistics, they aren't really close to being totally cut off, but it is degraded enough to have a notable impact. Also, these Russian forces haven't been rotated in quite a while (if ever, actually) as I understand it, so they are well past their prime fighting condition without adequate rest. The smaller this front gets, the denser and more difficult the fight will be, but Ukraine is still fighting in a fairly optimal situation.

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https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160

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https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1577344415500320770

That tweet doesn't quite do it justice, as it's missing a few things. Notably the 200 (!!) MRAPs.

Here is the full list of the highly useful package of military aid:

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This is the current state of play by Rus milblogger Rybar on telegram, which isn't the worst source for this kind of thing:

Not quite sure how many of the tweets on this guys thread will show up, but pretty sure if you click on the Tweet you can look at the whole thread.

Things are moving fast on the ground right now. The Russians in that salient have already retreated because of how vulnerable the position became.

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I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

Losing Kherson likely means losing control over the dam that provides most of Crimea's fresh water, so that would be a major issue for Russia. It's likely the reason why Putin would not give up their very vulnerable position and shifted so many forces to Kherson that he set up Kharkiv and Luhansk fronts for collapse.

That being said, until Ukraine either breaks the "land bridge" to Crimea, or retakes Kherson Oblast, the supply lines to Southern Ukraine will continue on, although losing control here will put even more logistical hubs in the south within HIMARS range.

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I read that was controlled from the eastern side. Even if the dam was sabotaged by Ukraine (and they have plenty of incentives not to do this), the canal itself is on the eastern side so that wouldn’t be a long-term problem for the occupation of Crimea.

Taking the area just over the dam would absolutely threaten that area, if Ukrainian advances continued east of the Dnieper - but I’d imagine Russia could set up plenty of defences if Ukraine decided to attack over just one bridge.

Yeah, my thinking is that Ukraine is going to contest that spot, but I'm not sure how that will play out. Ukraine has been fairly attentive towards minimizing damage to cities/towns and infrastructure, but that particular site is too valuable. Not entirely sure how it will play out, and whether Putin would rather destroy the dam if he thinks he will lose it. Ukraine could also decide that it is too dangerous to fight over it.

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Some chatter that Ukraine might open up a 3rd offensive in the south, which was apparently part of the original plan before they scaled it back.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578118264596533248

Not surprising given how weak and fragile the Russian forces in Ukraine are right now, although I do wonder how many forces Ukraine can put into it, whether it could adequately support 3 concurrent major counter offensives, and whether it might be smarter to focus on recapturing Kherson City first and then shifting those forces to Zaporizhzhia?

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Regarding the tweet Virginia put up regarding Ukraine reviving the idea of cutting off Mariupol, my thoughts are that it is either:

1. Something the US/UK must have now signed off on inasmuch as they were the ones who nixed the idea originally (which if true is glorious news), or

2. Disinformation to get Putin to thin out Russian forces elsewhere.

It seems unlikely to me that if the allies still thought the idea was too risky a scheme, Zelensky would blow them off and do it anyway.

It was originally deemed too risky, but that was before they knew how successful the first two would be. Russian forces are now significantly more degraded and many of their most capable units are still fighting in Kherson, so I can see why they might think a Zaporizhzhia offensive might actually be doable now.

That being said, I still think it's risky with Kherson City still in play, but I don't know the extent of Ukraine's reserves or their logistical capabilities either so maybe it is well within their abilities to maintain.

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https://www.ft.com/content/9a7b922b-2435-4ac7-acdb-0ec9a6dc8397

"Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia"

Is Elon Musk getting angry over his Twitter war with Zelensky?

Seems more likely:

   Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at the Serhiy Prytula Charity, a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, said the problem may be occurring because SpaceX was trying to prevent its misuse by Russian forces.

The blackouts were being experienced in areas so recently regained that their liberations had “not been made public yet,” he said.

“It is absolutely clear to me that this is being done by representatives of Starlink to prevent the usage of their technology by Russian occupation forces,” Sinicyn said. The Ukrainian military and SpaceX need to co-ordinate more closely, he said.

[Virginiá]

Ukraine probably getting the SPADA Air Defense System. Note that this has a smaller range and is more adequate for point defense, although can still provide a level of protection for most Ukrainian cities.

Although apparently depending on how many launchers and other components are networked, it can protect a much larger area:

The maximum configuration of the battery can cover an area of up to 800 square kilometres and have 72 ready to launch missiles, which can be fired by one or a volley of two missiles.

Source: https://en.missilery.info/missile/spada
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1578424391574073347

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Apparently the prearranged surrender of those enemy forces in a BMP was due to Ukrainian effort to convince disillusioned Russians to sell their heavy weapons to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1578272284636479488

Although the original description of this program I read was that the Russians would just drop it off and the money would be wired to them, but in this case it looks like the people (Ukrainian conscripts from LNR/DNR) straight up defected as well as for the money.

Publishing these videos could help them convince more occupiers to do the same.

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https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578659441159057408

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Unfortunately, it's probably going to take a second bomb of similar or greater magnitude to take out the rail bridge. There are technically two different bridges, so this isn't surprising. The rail bridge is arguably the most important, at least as far as military logistics are concerned. This will be a massive headache for Russia and people in Crimea, but I doubt it will appreciably affect the RuAF southern front's supply chain.

The outbound commuter lanes seem usable but doubtful it is 100%. I would be hesitant to drive across that myself.

[Virginiá]

Footage of the terrorist attack:

lmao, this is literally a war. Destroying bridges is extremely common, especially for Russia. Just because it's a really big bridge doesn't make a bit of difference. It's still a bridge connecting Russia, the invaders, to Crimea, illegally occupied Ukrainian land.

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That video of the girl on a walk and just barely surviving a missile strike....man what the f-k

If you think that is bad, try the mass grave video filmed by a Russian soldier in Kupyansk (pre-liberation) as they were rolling bodies into the hole, and seems that when the body hit, another body shifted their head / reacted, indicating they were being buried alive.

This is the stuff of nightmares

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Meanwhile in Washington DC:

This thread is so busy that I literally spent (20) minutes going back to 10/01/22, since I could have sworn that Virginia posted about this topic somewhat recently.

Couldn't find it, but in context of Russian Terrorist assaults using missiles against defenseless Ukrainian Civilian Population and Infrastructure, wanted to reply to her latest post regarding these weapons systems.

For its part, Ukraine has long combined its profuse gratitude for Western weapons aid with demands for stepped up delivery of more, and more sophisticated, supplies. The counteroffensive on the ground brought calls for battle tanks to move into contested territory, which the United States and its allies have been reluctant to send. This week, Kyiv attached new urgency to sophisticated air defense systems.

A Ukrainian official, referring to a list provided by the senior military command, said Ukraine’s priority items include the Patriot surface to air missile system, MIM-23 Hawk missiles, attack drones and NASAMS (National Advance Surface-to-Air Missile Systems) as well as Israeli air defense systems.

Ukraine’s pleas found new resonance in some quarters of Washington after the Monday attacks, with senior Democrats, in particular, demanding that Biden move more quickly to supply Ukraine. “I am horrified by Russia’s depraved and desperate escalation against civilian infrastructure across Ukraine — including in Kyiv,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said in a statement. “I pledge to use all means at my disposal to accelerate support for the people of Ukraine and to starve Russia’s war machine.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/10/russia-ukraine-war-turning-point/

Musical Interlude from Southern Oregon Folk Artist Alice Di Micele: (Saw her perform live a couple times and bought a couple of her cassettes way back in the dayz).

I used to play it sometimes when I was a DJ in our Pirate Radio Station when I was in College in the Industrial Midwest in the early '90s.

South Korea just retired the last of their Hawk air defense missile systems, so they may actually have those on hand to sell to Ukraine. It was recently reported that South Korea took a 3 billion dollar arms deal, paid for by the US, and to be delivered to Czech Republic, which would then go to Ukraine. This is to skirt SK's commitment to not send weapons to a war zone (and avoid the PR of blatantly supporting Ukraine). Weapons included were presumably a large number of Chiron MANPAD systems, which is apparently the best, longest range portable system (better than the Stinger), and also artillery ammunition. I struggle to think of what else, but for 3 billion dollars and at the value those systems/ammo cost, that deal either includes a lot of other stuff, or is a truly massive number of artillery shells and MANPADs.

If Ukraine wants to get more air defense systems rapidly, the Hawk may be one of their better bets. Older system, but apparently still somewhat useful.

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*But this is where your post is arguably most relevant. Calls for long-range, ground-based AD to fight poorly used Russian missiles ignore how expensive this kind of support would be - within the limited aid budgets set aside for Ukraine, there are more cost-effective expenditures than Patriot missiles.

It's unfortunate for Ukraine that directed energy weapons are still in their infancy. I know they are integrating and might have already demonstrated the possible integration of a laser system into NASAMS, so they can save missiles for bigger threats. I expect this to be a staple of many air defense systems of the future.

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Oof, remaining Kerch road bridge span is not looking too stable

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580307229650997249

Probably explains why the Crimean ferries have a 3-4 day waiting period and hundreds of backed up trucks.

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Vintage Hawk air defense system might see a comeback

Although TBF it would be the latter variant (I-Hawk) that saw improvements in the 80s and 90s. This was the system of choice for America before the PATRIOT made its debut.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/patriot-floated-as-possible-air-defense-system-for-ukraine-by-top-u-s-general

Ukraine, he said, has asked for older systems, like the I-Hawk, an improved version of the short-to-medium-range, medium-altitude Hawk system first fielded in the 1960s.  It has a larger, 163-pound blast-fragmentation warhead, a smaller and improved guidance package, and a new M112 rocket motor.

“It's an older system, but it's quite effective,” said Milley.

Hawk pales in comparison to NASAMS and IRST-T SLM, but it could be good as a supplement to Ukraine's soviet-era air defenses that are forward deployed in the field

Not the most advanced system but it's better than nothing and would help fill in gaps (or free up other assets to do so) where little-to-no air defense currently exists. Also there are likely a number of unused systems and missiles laying around for this (US, SK, etc).

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Russian fronts receiving orders to stop offensive ops temporarily due to extremely poor morale and desertion rates.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1580413345341276161

Bakhmut may see a short reprieve from Russia's hordes in this case.