Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scholz seems to have hinted he will still veto exports of certain weapons:

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1542500097404985345

That part with the Leopards is entirely accurate, actually. Scholz agreed to send the Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine after the Netherlands had wanted to send them. Scholz agreed to give Ukrainians the M270 after Biden had done so as well.

If you want Scholz to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine you need to get America to send the M1 Abrams first.

(And I think there's some Scholzian logic in play here that such a scenario would ensure that Russia would attack the U.S. over it rather than Germany.)

[jaichind]

WSJ

Bars are filled to the brim, film and jazz festivals are sold out and Moscow’s police officers are busier handing out fines for public drinking than putting down dissent

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1542944402850697217

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1542500705792978945?s=20&t=tNzcj6...

Before someone claims this was a "twitter offensive":

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1542835611966504963?s=20&t=pQbjh0KenwjP5b...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1542621575404568583?s=20&t=tNzcj6DI...

[SnowLabrador]

It's absolutely imperative Ukraine wins the war. If Russia wins, they will start invading other countries too.

[Person Man]

It's absolutely imperative Ukraine wins the war. If Russia wins, they will start invading other countries too.

Ultimately, that is what this war decides. Whether there is a major war in our near future.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1542621575404568583?s=20&t=tNzcj6DI...

Somewhat unusual for a Downfall parody there are at least four moments in the video where the original German dialogue is either directly translated or at least paraphrased (the bit about Stalin having his generals shot, that Wehrmacht officer protesting against the army being badmouthed by Hitler, "Es ist aus" = "It's over", and the part about killing himself).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The controversial and often polarizing Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, may have finally overstepped and reached the end of the road. Usually I didn't mind his attacks on German pacificts and SPD politicians over capitulation demands or sluggish arms delivieres.

But now an interview - and this *probably* was the intention of the interview - with left-wing activist-journalist and YouTuber Tilo Jung in which Melnyk repeatedly denied Stepan Bandera's antisemitism led to condemnation by the Polish and Israeli governments as well as a "this not the position of the Ukrainian government" rebuke by Kyiv. The Holocaust... never go there.


https://twitter.com/TiloJung/status/1542903383455158274


https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1542986136603213828

[NOVA Green]

Report from The War Zone today...    (Free non paywall or registration required).

Tons more in the link at the bottom of the post...

The latest round of U.S. military aid for Ukraine, valued at $820 million, was announced today and includes confirmation, for the first time, that the country will receive the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS. The Kyiv will be given two examples of the ground-based air defense system, which it has been campaigning for now for several months, as it seeks to bolster its ability to counter Russian air operations and cruise missile strikes.

NASAMS, as you can all about in our recent piece here, should provide a significant advance over the man-portable weapons that have constituted the bulk of the ground-based air defense systems provided to Kyiv since the war began. It’s also far more modern than Ukraine's Soviet-era short and medium-range air defense systems. With just two systems being provided, initially at least, it's likely at least one of them will be used for the local defense of Kyiv.

Interestingly, the statement from the Pentagon says, In particular, that the DoD “recognizes Norway’s cooperation to enable the historic provision by the United States of modern air defense systems that will help Ukraine defend against Russia’s brutal air attacks.” While NASAMS was developed in conjunction with Norway, this strongly suggests that the systems in question might be from Norwegian stocks. They could comprise first-generation NASAMS, now retired from service, or the more modern NASAMS 2 or 3, both of which are in use.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-confirms-nasams-air-defense-system-transfer

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1542621575404568583?s=20&t=tNzcj6DI...

‘Take Macron off call waiting’ got me

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1543023874312396804
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1542981436642394112

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1542500705792978945?s=20&t=tNzcj6...

Before someone claims this was a "twitter offensive":

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1542835611966504963?s=20&t=pQbjh0KenwjP5b...

Well, they did take the village. And imagine my surprise, when they DO take a village there is a footage to verify. What stops them for providing footage with other villages they supposedly take? You can't shoot a video from the place you captured if you didn't capture it.

In the meantime Lysychansk is being stormed from different directions, I don't have a clue what Ukrainians are trying to do there, but entire Luhansk oblast will be in Russian hands very soon.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1543094917777559552
🙏

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19/un-hopes-to-restore-ukraine-grain-exports-amid-global-food-crisis

"UN hopes to restore Ukraine grain exports amid global food crisis"

I can already see what is next demand from Putin:  "Grain for RUB"

https://www.agricensus.com/Article/Russia-switches-export-tax-scheme-from-US-dollar-to-ruble-23030.html

"Russia switches export tax scheme from US dollar to ruble"

First step toward my prediction of "grain for RUB"

[bilaps]

Lysychansk city center is already under Russian control.

[jaichind]

The USA Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing has some interesting answers

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3082215/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

When asked to clarify and quantify "the high price for tiny bits of gain" that Russia is paying in their offensive in Donbas the response was:

And then in terms of, you know, your question about cost, I think this is a -- a really tricky question because there's so much that goes into that question of what cost the country is paying.  When you look at, you know, Ukraine, I would never minimize the cost of losing, you know, losing any territory or the cost of these absolutely horrific civilian casualties that we are seeing.  Not to mention, of course, the cost of the Ukrainian armed forces’ lives but when you look at Russia you also have to look at the, you know, the cost to the -- to the Russian soldiers and families, the cost to the Russian equipment, we also should look at the cost to the country and the country's reputation in the world.  The Russian advances have -- have resulted in steep economic sanctions, isolation from the world and that is not letting up as long as Russia continues these advances.  So in that sense, it's an extremely high price that Russia is paying.

So I don't have any estimates on that that I can -- that I can share.  I mean, certainly with the Ukrainians, we're talking very closely with them to make sure that we're able to support their -- their re-supply needs.  With -- with the Russians, I mean, we are seeing them -- them certainly expend significant ammunition and -- and take significant casualties, but I -- I'm afraid I don't have specific numbers for you.

So he was not able to quantify the military cost and started to dance toward the economic and reputational cost of the war on Russia.  The entire premise of Ukraine holding out in Donbas and risking attrition and encirclement of their best units is that they can degrade the highly trained units of Russia so their offensive power is destroyed over time.  Not able to quantify such losses seems to imply that these "Russians losses" are made up or they are known and they do not fit the narrative of "attrition of Russian units"

[Storr]

Lysychansk city center is already under Russian control.

Indeed.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1543256357129928704?s=20&t=fpAs3XQO_...

Footage of Kadyrovtsy in Lysychansk:

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1543272668794847233?s=20&t=fpAs3XQO_-t35...

[bilaps]

And now the entire city is taken. No urban warfare here. Looks like the last stand for Ukrainians in Luhansk was in Severodonetsk with those foreign mercenaries being thrown to try to slow down retreat.

Bakhmut is next probably. There are reports that village Klinove was taken which would put Russian almost on the outskirts of the city.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1543094917777559552
🙏

Relatedly:
 
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1543264433652252672?s=20&t=xgINhWuElV...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1543262959857713154?s=20&t=EVWdh_iIBU_xJL...

[Storr]

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1543294232450023428?s=20&t=f5dRLJ44GaKvLK...

[Storr]

Casual reminder that the "separatists" are really just Russian proxies pretending to be states:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1543283196984496128?s=20&t=ec7yKhQU...

[Blue3]

What do the residents of Crimea, formerly Ukrainian citizens, think of the 2022 invasion?

I know many were pro-Russian and let Crimea be annexed, relatively quickly and peacefully.

But after being a part of Ukraine for decades, I wonder what they think of all this?

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-indias-top-cement-maker-paying-russian-coal-chinese-yuan-2022-06-29/

"EXCLUSIVE India's top cement maker paying for Russian coal in Chinese yuan"

Indian media are pointing out that this Jugaad (Hindi for a workaround) was personally signed off by Modi and it seems will be the first of many more deals like this to get around the sanctions.   Even the anti-PRC sections of the Indian media seem to report this news in a positive light.

[Person Man]

https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-indias-top-cement-maker-paying-russian-coal-chinese-yuan-2022-06-29/

"EXCLUSIVE India's top cement maker paying for Russian coal in Chinese yuan"

Indian media are pointing out that this Jugaad (Hindi for a workaround) was personally signed off by Modi and it seems will be the first of many more deals like this to get around the sanctions.   Even the anti-PRC sections of the Indian media seem to report this news in a positive light.

Worst thing that happens, India becomes isolated, best thing, they manage to have favorable relations with all the major powers. This feels very Molotov Ribbentrop.