Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225951775506433
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225956376657921
Things like this is what makes us look weak.

As with the jets, there is a part of me that suspects this isn’t primarily about “deescalation” concerns, but costs. It’s also quite possible they are afraid of Russia capturing and potentially reverse-engineering equipment, although this threat is probably overblown and not considered in the appropriate context(s).

The “lend-lease” is structured such that much of it (possibly most?) could go towards restocking the Pentagon, upgrading Eastern European armies, etc.: essentially anything that falls under “addressing the Ukraine crisis” rather than simply “re-arming Ukraine”. If we assume Ukraine gets $30 of that $40bn, giving them cheaper weapons that are being widely phased out has a certain appeal.

This becomes more relevant when there is a public, political demand for resupply of an expensive weapon. If Ukraine loses some HIMARS and there is an outcry, then bending to political pressure will hit the resuppliers in the wallet - so sending HIMARS to begin with risks making US efforts more expensive, in the short term. What Slovakia did for Ukraine by giving its S-300 was sensible (and they have made noises about sending their MiG-29s once Poland starts policing their airspace), but the US seems to have been reluctant to partially fund the replacement of their equipment (so far, Slovakia has secured a temporary deployment of Patriot missiles with foreign operators), and their approach could be similar here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

To make my own position clear - I think cheaping out on resupply is incredibly short-sighted. The longer the Russian occupation goes on, the more expensive rebuilding Ukraine will be, and that’s assuming Ukraine eventually recaptures their territories; they could well lose a war of attrition. There are implications beyond Ukraine, too: a longer, potentially failed campaign means a continuation of the energy crisis, and worse - mass starvation in countries that rely upon Ukrainian grain. In particular, the failure to provide ground-launched anti-ship missiles (much cheaper than ships) and thereby ease Russia’s naval blockade overlooks the damage this does to the Ukrainian and global economies.  

[Woody]

Take this with a huge grain of salt.

Earlier today users on Twitter were claiming that Russia launched a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv-Vovchansk direction, claiming that Ternova and Rubizhne (The other one) has been recaptured by RU.

A few moments ago UA General Staff now confirms clashes going on in the area, active battles happening at the moment:

https://t.me/lumsrc/1498
Location: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-may-at-slobozhansky-direction-battles-at-borschowa-ternova

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225951775506433
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225956376657921
Things like this is what makes us look weak.

As with the jets, there is a part of me that suspects this isn’t primarily about “deescalation” concerns, but costs. It’s also quite possible they are afraid of Russia capturing and potentially reverse-engineering equipment, although this threat is probably overblown and not considered in the appropriate context(s).

The “lend-lease” is structured such that much of it (possibly most?) could go towards restocking the Pentagon, upgrading Eastern European armies, etc.: essentially anything that falls under “addressing the Ukraine crisis” rather than simply “re-arming Ukraine”. If we assume Ukraine gets $30 of that $40bn, giving them cheaper weapons that are being widely phased out has a certain appeal.

This becomes more relevant when there is a public, political demand for resupply of an expensive weapon. If Ukraine loses some HIMARS and there is an outcry, then bending to political pressure will hit the resuppliers in the wallet - so sending HIMARS to begin with risks making US efforts more expensive, in the short term. What Slovakia did for Ukraine by giving its S-300 was sensible (and they have made noises about sending their MiG-29s once Poland starts policing their airspace), but the US seems to have been reluctant to partially fund the replacement of their equipment (so far, Slovakia has secured a temporary deployment of Patriot missiles with foreign operators), and their approach could be similar here.

Decimating the Russian's Armed Forces is priceless, and we don't even have to sacrifice our own troops to do it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are the Ukrainians starting to have tactical/operational-level issues in the Donbas again because of Russian troops being freed up from Azovstal? If so, do we think they'll be able to adjust accordingly soonish?

[It’s so Joever]

Take this with a huge grain of salt.

Earlier today users on Twitter were claiming that Russia launched a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv-Vovchansk direction, claiming that Ternova and Rubizhne (The other one) has been recaptured by RU.

A few moments ago UA General Staff now confirms clashes going on in the area, active battles happening at the moment:

https://t.me/lumsrc/1498
Location: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-may-at-slobozhansky-direction-battles-at-borschowa-ternova

Capturing Kharkiv still will be an uphill battle.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Take this with a huge grain of salt.

Earlier today users on Twitter were claiming that Russia launched a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv-Vovchansk direction, claiming that Ternova and Rubizhne (The other one) has been recaptured by RU.

A few moments ago UA General Staff now confirms clashes going on in the area, active battles happening at the moment:

https://t.me/lumsrc/1498
Location: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-may-at-slobozhansky-direction-battles-at-borschowa-ternova

Capturing Kharkiv still will be an uphill battle.

I don't think this is even in the context of trying to actually capture Kharkiv at this point. Non-Donbas offensives on both sides right now are intended to tie up the other side's troops.

[Person Man]

What should we expect from the 50B lend lease package?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225951775506433
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225956376657921
Things like this is what makes us look weak.

Oh FFS ‘because they could strike inside Russia’
Russia is at war with them. You don’t get to invade somewhere and then decide that you are off limits.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What should we expect from the 50B lend lease package?

You should expect a degree of under-delivery, and misreporting as “$40bn of arms transfers” by Western journalists. This would be consistent with the breathless reporting we’ve seen on weapons transfers that didn’t happen or happened in smaller quantities/with older technology than what was reported.

The headline figure is $40bn. The NYT has broken it down a bit: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/us/politics/senate-passes-ukraine-aid.html

Up to $11bn of weaponry for Ukraine is authorised.

$9bn is allocated to replenishing the depleted Pentagon stockpile (presumably, this could be sent to Ukraine without another bill in due course?).

A lot of it is humanitarian aid. Incredibly important - if nothing else, it frees up the Ukrainian state to focus on its war economy.

Tyler Rogoway, whose excellent reporting NOVA GREEN has reposted here before, states that there was a plan to accelerate the transfer of tanks to Poland by several years (I hope this is a relatively small administrative cost, but I doubt it), to make up for the T-72s they’ve sent. Hopefully, they agreed to send more as a result of that - they were already backfilled by Britain agreeing to deploy its own tanks until the replacements arrived (they would have done in 2025/2026, originally). Presumably, there will be more military build-ups in Eastern Europe - this was a significant chunk of previous “Ukraine crisis” expenditures.

[Logical]

M777 go brrrrrrr. The latest package of military aid has been announced.
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1527359870772514835

[Antonio the Sixth]

$11 billion is still over 2.5 times all military aid sent to Ukraine so far since the beginning of the war, so it's nothing to sneeze at. If we assume a constant rate of transfers, that would allow Ukraine to continue holding out all the way through the end of the year. Alternatively, if Biden ramps up the amounts (and quality) of equipment sent, Ukraine's capabilities in the next 3 months should be substantially increased.

I've heard it said that the package is still "missing a zero" in order to truly allow Ukraine to win the war, and it's probably true that they'll need at least a few more packages of this size to really bring it home, but victory for Ukraine isn't really an either-or proposition, and every town that's liberated from Russia is one town that won't have to suffer through ethnic cleansing and political repression.

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this has been mentioned yet, but appears to verify Ukrainian intel about a drone strike on a Command and Control Center just recently...

Fine it's the Daily Mail or the "Epic Fail" Brit tabloid, but even a broken clock is right two times a day...

Russia has admitted losing two officers in a single day, including one who had been sent to replace a colonel who died fighting earlier in the war.

Lieutenant-Colonel Denis Sukhanov, 41, was reported to have died 'defending civilians' though the exact location and date of his death were not revealed.

Meanwhile Colonel Denis Kozlov, 40, was revealed to have died during a botched mission to cross the Donets River last week that ended with an entire Russian battalion being wiped out.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10828505/Russia-loses-colonel-sent-field-replace-previous-one-Ukraine-killed.html

Was half tempted to put on a song, but fought against my inner beast as many of you will likely appreciate...

[Woody]

Ternova and Rubizhne (Kharkiv region one) has been confirmed recaptured by RU in their counter-offensive to the South-West of Vovchansk (Most likely intended to be a buffer). Russians seeing success in Popasna-Bakhmut direction. Main highway to Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk in danger off being cut off soon. Some RU advances in Zaporozhye Oblast.

Author also made a correction to Vrubivka being captured yesterday by RU, some say it has been captured some hours ago, status still unknown. Rest of the settlements below has been confirmed by OSINT.
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527439793214349321?cxt=HHwWkoCzpca...
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527439803523948550?cxt=HHwWjICzjZO...

[Woody]

Why the main road to Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk falling is not the end, but still important for Ukraine to hold on if it wants to keep the front there alive:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1527525652945068032

It seems the main problem for UA is that after the Popasna retreat the rest of the front is essentially exposed and heavily outnumbered, with the main forces concentrated in Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk itself (15-20k estimate).

Which is why Russians are moving several km in a day here and more mobile than elsewhere.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New German polling numbers (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer, 05/20)

Opinion on delivering heavy weapons like tanks from Germany to Ukraine
Approve 58%
Disapprove 34%

Opinion on admitting Sweden and Finland to NATO
Good 81%
Not good 13%

Should Ukraine be admitted to the EU in the coming years?
Yes 62%
No 29%

Will Russia reliably deliver gas to Germany despite the Ukraine crisis?
Yes 36%
No 58%

Would a significant reduction in Russian gas deliveries lead to serious problems in Germany?
Yes 71%
No 27%

Opinion on the speed of the expansion of renewable energies in Germany
Too fast 10%
Too slow 64%
Just right 23%

Job performance of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Ukraine crisis
Good 50%
Bad 41%

Job performance of economy minister Robert Habeck in the Ukraine crisis
Good 67%
Bad 18%

Job performance of foreign minister Annalena Baerbock in the Ukraine crisis
Good 74%
Bad 20%

Voting intention
CDU/CSU 26% (+3)
Greens 24% (+3)
SPD 22% (-3)
AfD 10% (-1)
FDP 7% (-2)
Left 4% (+/-0)

[jaichind]

RUB now has risen to 59.  RUB is now the strongest currency of 2022.  Part of this is because Russian imports from the EU have collapsed while its energy/food exports in USD/EUR terms have risen due to the rise in world energy/food prices but it is also about the Russian Central Bank acting in a way to prop up RUB.  I am not sure what is the point of pushing up RUB at this point.  My sense is Putin wants to deter the Russian upper class from shifting their asset abroad with the risk that the RUB will RISE after they convert their wealth from RUB to USD.  The problem with this strategy is that it is very short-sighted.  At some stage, RUB cannot go higher anymore and have to grow down, and then that is the point when the Russian upper class will try to shift their wealth making the fall of the RUB more difficult to control.  Putin is better off taking his thumb off the scale and allowing market forces to push RUB back down to 80-90 or something like that which will be much more sustainable for the Russian Central Bank to them defend.

[Woody]

A Lysychansk/Severodonetsk encirclement may be possible soon. If ore advances are made, Ukrainians really have two options here, either basically entrench themselves and try to take out as many soldiers as they can in the process (Mariupol), or more ideally, retreat. On the other hand the Kharkiv news is very nice, a good morale boost.

It's going to be hard to do a Mariupol as it was a industrial city with a giant steel work factory and tunnels. Here they have a city, mostly flat and less populated and smaller than Mariupol.

Honestly, at this point, I believe the smart thing would be for strategic withdrawal.. literally everyone is raising alarms including Ukrainian circles. Russians are going ham right now at Popasna, stuffing reinforcements because they believe this is the choke point.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1527371245733326858?cxt=HHwWlMCl4ceDqLI...

An encirclement of 15-20k troops should not be anywhere near the table. And both cities are going to be raised to the ground by the Russians. A surrender similar to Azovstal's "evacuation" should not be repeated.

[jaichind]

At this stage, the only holdouts on the pay RUB for Russian gas are Poland Bulgaria Slovakia, and Finland.  Other than Finland the rest of them still get Russian gas after paying a middlemen markup from other EU economies that decided to cave to Putin.   Finland will be tricky.  The good news for them is that Russian gas forms a small part of their energy needs but this will hit the Finnish industrial base.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1527606560041705473


After three months of thoughtful consideration, dilligently weighing all the pros against the cons, Gerhard Schröder has decided to quit his job at Rosneft.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It's always a bit strange, when people this after every bit of what was left of their reputation has been destroyed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Inertia can be one helluva drug.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1527638967415623680?cxt=HHwWgMDS3YHjobMqAAAA

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1527584852354207744
Ukraine keeping up its Kharkiv counterattack

[Logical]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328