Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/what-turkey-wants-from-sweden-and-finland-in-nato-expansion-spat

"What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion Spat"

Namely lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey with Turkey getting various weapons systems and banning KWP as terrorist group.

So now Sweden and Finland can virtual signal on Russia or Turkey but not both.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/what-turkey-wants-from-sweden-and-finland-in-nato-expansion-spat

"What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion Spat"

Namely lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey with Turkey getting various weapons systems and banning KWP as terrorist group.

So now Sweden and Finland can virtual signal on Russia or Turkey but not both.

They’ve issued newer demands requiring a lot more from the USA and being vaguer about what they want from Finland and Sweden. See the Finland/Sweden thread for details, but I reckon they don’t have any real problems with the Nordics and are just engaging in old-fashioned extortion of the USA.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1526655153062944770

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

Do you think Russia would respect it if Turkey didn’t have NATO at it’s back or do you think they would be demanding ‘renegotiation’.

[Badger]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/what-turkey-wants-from-sweden-and-finland-in-nato-expansion-spat

"What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion Spat"

Namely lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey with Turkey getting various weapons systems and banning KWP as terrorist group.

So now Sweden and Finland can virtual signal on Russia or Turkey but not both.

"Virtue signal".

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/what-turkey-wants-from-sweden-and-finland-in-nato-expansion-spat

"What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion Spat"

Namely lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey with Turkey getting various weapons systems and banning KWP as terrorist group.

So now Sweden and Finland can virtual signal on Russia or Turkey but not both.

"Virtue signal".

You know it’s funny how that term is exclusively used by people trying to signal their virtue to fellow travelers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

Do you think Russia would respect it if Turkey didn’t have NATO at it’s back or do you think they would be demanding ‘renegotiation’.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think they'd respect it. As implemented in the current conflict, the Convention shuts out military vessels from non-Black Sea states (including those sent as trade), and it was brought into force only a few days into the invasion - by which time Russia had already asserted naval superiority and strengthened its Black Sea Fleet with several large landing ships. Effectively, it cemented Russia's naval advantage in the Black Sea.

Only since the sinking of the Moskva has the convention arguably become disadvantageous for Russia, and that's assuming they'd have been willing to send in another cruiser to replace her were the convention not in place.

Turkey is a regional power and not one Russia can afford to screw around with at the moment. In general, a non-NATO Turkey is a state they'd have tried to push around more - I'm not going to try to forecast what might have changed over the course of its decades-long membership - but there is no clause in the treaty that implies Montreux must be upheld, and at the moment, Russia will take every non-hostile state they can get. If pressure upon Turkey backfired, risks would include delivery of military aid to Ukraine and trouble in Syria (the Russian analyst posted upthread also assessed their Syrian deployment wasn't strong enough to challenge a Turkish invasion).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine forces are nearing Vovchansk 😎

[The Mikado]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

Do you think Russia would respect it if Turkey didn’t have NATO at it’s back or do you think they would be demanding ‘renegotiation’.

...I wouldn't bet on Russia in an attempted invasion of Turkey, ESPECIALLY given Russia's lackluster naval strength. Turkey actually has a really impressive and large military, and the land invasion route through the Caucasus (assuming they went through Abkhazia) takes you right into the Pontic Mountains.

Turkey has remarkably defensible geography, especially if we're assuming Romania and Bulgaria don't let a Russian army walk through.

Did I mention the Turkish Air Force has over 200 F-16s? I'm really, really not betting on the Russian Air Force here. (Not to mention over a hundred Bayraktar TB-2 drones) And that Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO at present, behind only the USA? And that Turkey's population of ~85 million is twice that of pre-war Ukraine's and will require twice as much to occupy?

So yeah, I really doubt even in the "Turkey is expelled from NATO" world that Russia wants anything to do with picking that fight.

[Lord Halifax]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

Do you think Russia would respect it if Turkey didn’t have NATO at it’s back or do you think they would be demanding ‘renegotiation’.

...I wouldn't bet on Russia in an attempted invasion of Turkey, ESPECIALLY given Russia's lackluster naval strength. Turkey actually has a really impressive and large military, and the land invasion route through the Caucasus (assuming they went through Abkhazia) takes you right into the Pontic Mountains.

Turkey has remarkably defensible geography, especially if we're assuming Romania and Bulgaria don't let a Russian army walk through.

Did I mention the Turkish Air Force has over 200 F-16s? I'm really, really not betting on the Russian Air Force here. (Not to mention over a hundred Bayraktar TB-2 drones) And that Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO at present, behind only the USA? And that Turkey's population of ~85 million is twice that of pre-war Ukraine's and will require twice as much to occupy?

So yeah, I really doubt even in the "Turkey is expelled from NATO" world that Russia wants anything to do with picking that fight.

They could team up with Iran and/or launch an invasion from Syria. It's doubtful that the Kurds would resist a Russian invasion and that lowers the cost of occupation. 

Even assuming the Turkish army isn't also overrated (and their intervention in Syria wasn't exactly impressive) you're assuming it would be a conventional war, but if Turkey isn't allied with the US I see little reason why Russia would show any restraint in a war against a country like Turkey with few useful allies.

It would be much easier for Russia to use chemical weapons, tactical nukes or commit outright genocide (not massacres as in Ukraine, but large scale actual genocide) against Turks than Ukrainians (Slavic people and of interest to the West). Russian atrocities in Ukraine shouldn't make us ignore that they could have gone even further and have shown some degree of restraint, even with regards to "conventional" thermobaric weapons.

Turkey is a country few nations really like (Pakistan, the four Turkic -stans in Central Asia, the Azeris, Albania, Bosnia) and plenty of other nations have a grudge against: Iran, Syria (and to a lesser degree most of the rest of the Arab world), Greece, Serbia, Armenia, Georgia, and they've done their best to alienate various European nations and the US. China prefers Iran over Turkey. Pakistan is the only pro-Turkish country with a sizable military, but is badly positioned to intervene and would have to prioritize its relations with China and Iran over Turkey anyway. How seriously would the world community really react to Russian war crimes in Turkey? 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I assume it’s just milking concessions from Turkey.

For all the Eurasianist nonsense ont he ground, I assume the Turks remember that the last time we had a war mongering Russian Emperor Constantinople was on the wish list.
Or more seriously that NATO is effectively blocking them from screwing with the Black Sea.

Hungary, or rather Orban scares me though.

How so? Turkey can wield the Montreux Convention all by itself.

Do you think Russia would respect it if Turkey didn’t have NATO at it’s back or do you think they would be demanding ‘renegotiation’.

...I wouldn't bet on Russia in an attempted invasion of Turkey, ESPECIALLY given Russia's lackluster naval strength. Turkey actually has a really impressive and large military, and the land invasion route through the Caucasus (assuming they went through Abkhazia) takes you right into the Pontic Mountains.

Turkey has remarkably defensible geography, especially if we're assuming Romania and Bulgaria don't let a Russian army walk through.

Did I mention the Turkish Air Force has over 200 F-16s? I'm really, really not betting on the Russian Air Force here. (Not to mention over a hundred Bayraktar TB-2 drones) And that Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO at present, behind only the USA? And that Turkey's population of ~85 million is twice that of pre-war Ukraine's and will require twice as much to occupy?

So yeah, I really doubt even in the "Turkey is expelled from NATO" world that Russia wants anything to do with picking that fight.

They could team up with Iran and/or launch an invasion from Syria. It's doubtful that the Kurds would resist a Russian invasion and that lowers the cost of occupation.  

Even assuming the Turkish army isn't also overrated (and their intervention in Syria wasn't exactly impressive) you're assuming it would be a conventional war, but if Turkey isn't allied with the US I see little reason why Russia would show any restraint in a war against a country like Turkey with few useful allies.

It would be much easier for Russia to use chemical weapons, tactical nukes or commit outright genocide (not massacres as in Ukraine, but large scale actual genocide) against Turks than Ukrainians (Slavic people and of interest to the West). Russian atrocities in Ukraine shouldn't make us ignore that they could have gone even further and have shown some degree of restraint, even with regards to "conventional" thermobaric weapons.

Turkey is a country few nations really like (Pakistan, the four Turkic -stans in Central Asia, the Azeris, Albania, Bosnia) and plenty of other nations have a grudge against: Iran, Syria (and to a lesser degree most of the rest of the Arab world), Greece, Serbia, Armenia, Georgia, and they've done their best to alienate various European nations and the US. China prefers Iran over Turkey. Pakistan is the only pro-Turkish country with a sizable military, but is badly positioned to intervene and would have to prioritize its relations with China and Iran over Turkey anyway. How seriously would the world community really react to Russian war crimes in Turkey?  

There are basically two kinds of Kurds in Turkey (oversimplifying but not too much). The first kind is pan-Islamic in their identity and tends to strongly back the AKP. The second kind is more Kurdish nationalist in identity and tends to strongly oppose the AKP. The first kind will give the Russians utter hell, the second kind may not and might even support them. You see plenty of both kinds in Turkey.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1526907208998453250

[Woody]

Ukraine's biggest obstacle right now: The Bakhmut highway/Popasna direction

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1526723349665259520

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768

Funny that this is Sir woodbury's usual go to information source, and yet he somehow neglected to publish this information today. Yeah, it's good that we're not getting a Ukrainian propaganda/ cheerleading version of events, but from the news he obviously Cherry picks to report one would assume that the Russians are ready to roll into Kiev any week now which is obviously the near opposite of what's Happening . the fact he reports literally nothing but whatever, apparently in the big picture, minor gains Russia makes seems some weird combination of trolling, Shilling for Putin, and just plane Doomer ism.

Anyway, more to the point of this post, this sounds like a particularly big step forward for the Ukrainian counter-offensive if they are threatening the Russian supply lines into iyzum. No?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768

Funny that this is Sir woodbury's usual go to information source, and yet he somehow neglected to publish this information today. Yeah, it's good that we're not getting a Ukrainian propaganda/ cheerleading version of events, but from the news he obviously Cherry picks to report one would assume that the Russians are ready to roll into Kiev any week now which is obviously the near opposite of what's Happening . the fact he reports literally nothing but whatever, apparently in the big picture, minor gains Russia makes seems some weird combination of trolling, Shilling for Putin, and just plane Doomer ism.

Anyway, more to the point of this post, this sounds like a particularly big step forward for the Ukrainian counter-offensive if they are threatening the Russian supply lines into iyzum. No?

“May have” indicates there is more uncertainty regarding these Ukrainian gains than the Russian ones today. It’s obviously good news if confirmed, but the Donbas gains are probably more notable given the higher confidence with which they were reported. Russia’s recent gains there have mostly been tactical, but if they take Sieverodonetsk and Lyman, they get a shorter front line to maintain and Ukraine loses its only river crossings south of Izium.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768

Funny that this is Sir woodbury's usual go to information source, and yet he somehow neglected to publish this information today. Yeah, it's good that we're not getting a Ukrainian propaganda/ cheerleading version of events, but from the news he obviously Cherry picks to report one would assume that the Russians are ready to roll into Kiev any week now which is obviously the near opposite of what's Happening . the fact he reports literally nothing but whatever, apparently in the big picture, minor gains Russia makes seems some weird combination of trolling, Shilling for Putin, and just plane Doomer ism.

Anyway, more to the point of this post, this sounds like a particularly big step forward for the Ukrainian counter-offensive if they are threatening the Russian supply lines into iyzum. No?

“May have” indicates there is more uncertainty regarding these Ukrainian gains than the Russian ones today. It’s obviously good news if confirmed, but the Donbas gains are probably more notable given the higher confidence with which they were reported. Russia’s recent gains there have mostly been tactical, but if they take Sieverodonetsk and Lyman, they get a shorter front line to maintain and Ukraine loses its only river crossings south of Izium.

We’ll even if the ‘may have’ is ‘didn’t’, successfully bridging the Donets, which Russia is hilariously flailing trying to do, is big.

[Woody]

Ukrainian gains near Kharkiv, Russians crossing back to the border or consolidating what little they have there.

Russian offensive in Donbass starting to look competent. Taken dozens of villages/settlements near Sieverodonetsk and Bakhmut direction this week after Popasna fell. Lyman surrounded by three sides, and cut off to it's south due to UA forces blowing up it's bridge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527076785007087616?cxt=HHwWgMC-sdi...

[It’s so Joever]

A Lysychansk/Severodonetsk encirclement may be possible soon. If ore advances are made, Ukrainians really have two options here, either basically entrench themselves and try to take out as many soldiers as they can in the process (Mariupol), or more ideally, retreat. On the other hand the Kharkiv news is very nice, a good morale boost.

[urutzizu]

NYT reports US moving towards secondary sanctions to severely limit Russian oil revenues. Previously US held back from secondary sanctions because of the potential backlash from China, India etc. (and Europe, which is still unable to agree the proposed oil embargo).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/us/politics/russia-ukraine-oil-sanctions.html

U.S. Aims to Cripple Russian Oil Industry, Officials Say

BERLIN — The Biden administration is developing plans to further choke Russia’s oil revenues with the long-term goal of destroying the country’s central role in the global energy economy, current and former U.S. officials say, a major escalatory step that could put the United States in political conflict with China, India, Turkey and other nations that buy Russian oil.

The proposed measures include imposing a price cap on Russian oil, backed by so-called secondary sanctions, which would punish foreign buyers that do not comply with U.S. restrictions by blocking them from doing business with American companies and those of partner nations.
[...]

The U.S. government could also cut off most Russian access to payments for oil. Washington would do this by issuing a regulation that requires foreign banks dealing in payments to put the money in an escrow account if they want to avoid sanctions. Russia would be able to access the money only to purchase essential goods like food and medicine.

Not a full block on Russian Oil imports, but the effects for Russia would be similarly painful. In March China threatened the US with "firm and forceful" retaliation if US implements secondary sanctions (although realistically speaking, there are few options here, the reason why Chinese companies have already been very reluctant to do more business with Russia).

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/china-in-talks-with-russia-to-buy-oil-for-strategic-reserves

"China in Talks With Russia to Buy Oil for Strategic Reserves"

[Middle-aged Europe]

The latest chapter in the Gerhard Schröder saga:


https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1527274106843869184


Every country has its embarassing black sheep ex-leader. The U.S. has Trump. Germany has Schröder, I guess.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225951775506433https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225956376657921

Things like this is what makes us look weak.