Quebec Municipal Elections - Nov. 7, 2021

[DL]

All in all the municipal elections in Quebec were largely a good night for progressives what with the big win by Plante and the results in Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Rimouski, Laval, Longueuil etc… follows the trend in Alberta. Seems like the municipal level lends itself particularly well to more progressive takes on the issues

[MaxQue]

Savard's lead is now just 42 votes. Increasingly clear that the media here made a wrong call, but they're still refusing to admit it besides acknowledging the "uh, it's narrow now" reality.

Not the only premature call by media.

CDN-NDG borough mayor race was very quickly called for Lionel Perez (dean of the council, EM), but he is only leading by 38 votes with 4 boxes left.

[DL]

Savard's lead is now just 42 votes. Increasingly clear that the media here made a wrong call, but they're still refusing to admit it besides acknowledging the "uh, it's narrow now" reality.

Not the only premature call by media.

CDN-NDG borough mayor race was very quickly called for Lionel Perez (dean of the council, EM), but he is only leading by 38 votes with 4 boxes left.

Now looks like he lost by 43 votes to Gracia Katahwa of PM!

[MaxQue]

Savard's lead is now just 42 votes. Increasingly clear that the media here made a wrong call, but they're still refusing to admit it besides acknowledging the "uh, it's narrow now" reality.

Not the only premature call by media.

CDN-NDG borough mayor race was very quickly called for Lionel Perez (dean of the council, EM), but he is only leading by 38 votes with 4 boxes left.

Now looks like he lost by 43 votes to Gracia Katahwa of PM!

Seems the final result is a victory for her of 83 votes. Another mistake for the media.

[Hatman 🍁]

All in all the municipal elections in Quebec were largely a good night for progressives what with the big win by Plante and the results in Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Rimouski, Laval, Longueuil etc… follows the trend in Alberta. Seems like the municipal level lends itself particularly well to more progressive takes on the issues

Not so good in Gatineau

[Hash]

Preliminary results of the Montreal mayoral race by borough:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is Coderre so strong in Saint-Leonard?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Coderre so strong in Saint-Leonard?

Easy, Italians. Italians are the most stereotypical centre-right Liberal voting bloc that exists, and who exemplifies centre-right Liberalism more than Coderre?

What confuses me is how Ile-Bizard went for Plante. I suppose Holness doing well had something to do with it. 

[DL]

Why is Coderre so strong in Saint-Leonard?

Easy, Italians. Italians are the most stereotypical centre-right Liberal voting bloc that exists, and who exemplifies centre-right Liberalism more than Coderre?

Also, Coderre's longtime federal riding of Bourassa was in that area of northeast Montreal that is around Montreal-Nord, Anjou, St. Leonard, Rivieres des Prairires...so he may have some vestigial personal support in those areas. 

[Hash]

Why is Coderre so strong in Saint-Leonard?

It's the sort of place that, particularly at the municipal level with low turnout elections (less than 33% this year), is still very much dominated by the sort of old [corrupt] machine politics that Coderre 'inherited' and now embodies - the EM (and ex-Union Montréal) borough mayor, Michel Bissonnet, re-elected yet again with over 60% of the vote, has been borough mayor since 2008, when he succeeded the infamously corrupt Frank Zampino, who had been mayor of pre-merger Saint-Léonard since 1990. Zampino's political career had been supported by Bissonnet, who was mayor of Saint-Léonard for three years (1978-1981) before being elected to the National Assembly as a Liberal in 1981 (he served until 2008), and years later Zampino actively campaigned for his mentor in 2008.

Montréal-Nord, Coderre's home turf, is also dominated by the same sort of old machine politics.

In addition, of course, Coderre does best with non-Francophone voters, although the ethno-linguistic cleavage is much more attenuated in local elections, and Saint-Léonard with its large Italian, Arab, Haitian and Latin American population, has a lot of them.

What confuses me is how Ile-Bizard went for Plante. I suppose Holness doing well had something to do with it. 

Plante already won L'Île-Bizard-Sainte-Geneviève in 2017, so Holness likely doesn't have much to do with it. It is indeed one of the more puzzling results, then as now, because it doesn't have the sort of demographics you'd associate with strong results for Plante, although I guess this proves that the lazy stereotypes-based analyses of candidates have their limits - as in 2017, Plante once again did relatively well in most suburban areas, with the exceptions of Montréal-Nord and Saint-Léonard. One could imagine that protection of green spaces and mobility are major issues: one of Plante's big projects is the creation of a large Grand Parc de l'Ouest that would include preserving large swathes of existing green spaces on the island, and her administration has moved ahead on replacing the only bridge linking the island to Montreal Island, which is nearing its end of life.

Interestingly, she was, unlike in 2017, much more popular than PM's candidate(s) in the borough: incumbent borough mayor Normand Marinacci was defeated, quite badly (34% to 48%) by EM's Stéphane Côte. Marinacci faced ethics charges (but was recently cleared by the municipal commission) and lost his three borough councillors (two retired, one defected to Holness' party).

[Hash]

Results of Quebec City's mayoral election by district



By borough:
La Cité-Limoilou: QFF 33.5%, EMJS 28.1%, TQ 18.2%, QC21 13.7%, DQ 6%
Les Rivières: EMJS 37%, QFF 29.6%, QC21 27%, DQ 3%, TQ 2.9%
Sainte-Foy-Sillery-Cap-Rouge: QFF 37.6%, EMJS 34.3%, QC21 17.2%, TQ 6%, DQ 4.4%
Charlesbourg: QFF 32.1%, EMJS 31.9%, QC21 28.6%, DQ 3.4%, TQ 3.4%
Beauport: QC21 34.1%, EMJS 31.1%, QFF 28.3%, DQ 3%, TQ 2.9%
La Haute-Saint-Charles: QC21 34.9%, QFF 30%, EMJS 29.6%, DQ 2.6%, TQ 2.2%

Full results: https://www.ville.quebec.qc.ca/apropos/elections-municipales/resultats/docs/2021-resultats-mairie-districts.pdf

Marchand (QFF) and Savard (EMJS) both had pretty evenly distributed support throughout the city, in both the older central areas and suburban areas. Marchand did well in older, wealthy neighbourhoods like Sillery and Montcalm/Saint-Sacrement, and in general attracted a lot of soft centre-left/liberal support. Savard's support is similar, at lower levels, to Labeaume's support in 2017, weaker in both the downtown core and exurban periphery.

On the other hand, Gosselin (QC21) still had a very disproportionately exurban/suburban base, failing to gain ground in the more central areas. Smith (TQ) had, on the other hand, a very downtown-centric base: nearly 55% of all her votes came from a single borough, La Cité-Limoilou (in contrast, only 11% of Gosselin's votes came from that borough). Elsewhere, with the exception of Saint-Louis-Sillery and the Plateau de Sainte-Foy (where she won about 8%) which are around Laval University, she got low results and was a bit behind Rousseau (DQ), who also had a pretty downtown-centric vote. Smith won 25.1% in Limoilou district (a strong third), where her co-candidate won a seat for her, and her second-best result was 23% in Saint-Roch-Saint-Sauveur, which includes those two historically working-class Basse-Ville neighbourhoods which have seen some gentrification (similar to Limoilou).

[adma]

What confuses me is how Ile-Bizard went for Plante. I suppose Holness doing well had something to do with it. 

Plante already won L'Île-Bizard-Sainte-Geneviève in 2017, so Holness likely doesn't have much to do with it. It is indeed one of the more puzzling results, then as now, because it doesn't have the sort of demographics you'd associate with strong results for Plante, although I guess this proves that the lazy stereotypes-based analyses of candidates have their limits - as in 2017, Plante once again did relatively well in most suburban areas, with the exceptions of Montréal-Nord and Saint-Léonard. One could imagine that protection of green spaces and mobility are major issues: one of Plante's big projects is the creation of a large Grand Parc de l'Ouest that would include preserving large swathes of existing green spaces on the island, and her administration has moved ahead on replacing the only bridge linking the island to Montreal Island, which is nearing its end of life.

Interestingly, she was, unlike in 2017, much more popular than PM's candidate(s) in the borough: incumbent borough mayor Normand Marinacci was defeated, quite badly (34% to 48%) by EM's Stéphane Côte. Marinacci faced ethics charges (but was recently cleared by the municipal commission) and lost his three borough councillors (two retired, one defected to Holness' party).

Also worth noting that Bizard's traditionally the most "Bloc"--and in 2011, NDP--part of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

[MaxQue]

What confuses me is how Ile-Bizard went for Plante. I suppose Holness doing well had something to do with it. 

Plante already won L'Île-Bizard-Sainte-Geneviève in 2017, so Holness likely doesn't have much to do with it. It is indeed one of the more puzzling results, then as now, because it doesn't have the sort of demographics you'd associate with strong results for Plante, although I guess this proves that the lazy stereotypes-based analyses of candidates have their limits - as in 2017, Plante once again did relatively well in most suburban areas, with the exceptions of Montréal-Nord and Saint-Léonard. One could imagine that protection of green spaces and mobility are major issues: one of Plante's big projects is the creation of a large Grand Parc de l'Ouest that would include preserving large swathes of existing green spaces on the island, and her administration has moved ahead on replacing the only bridge linking the island to Montreal Island, which is nearing its end of life.

Interestingly, she was, unlike in 2017, much more popular than PM's candidate(s) in the borough: incumbent borough mayor Normand Marinacci was defeated, quite badly (34% to 48%) by EM's Stéphane Côte. Marinacci faced ethics charges (but was recently cleared by the municipal commission) and lost his three borough councillors (two retired, one defected to Holness' party).

Also worth noting that Bizard's traditionally the most "Bloc"--and in 2011, NDP--part of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

If I remember well, Bizard is unusually Francophone for West Island (and also, where Pauline Marois manor is).

[Hatman 🍁]

Results of Quebec City's mayoral election by district



By borough:
La Cité-Limoilou: QFF 33.5%, EMJS 28.1%, TQ 18.2%, QC21 13.7%, DQ 6%
Les Rivières: EMJS 37%, QFF 29.6%, QC21 27%, DQ 3%, TQ 2.9%
Sainte-Foy-Sillery-Cap-Rouge: QFF 37.6%, EMJS 34.3%, QC21 17.2%, TQ 6%, DQ 4.4%
Charlesbourg: QFF 32.1%, EMJS 31.9%, QC21 28.6%, DQ 3.4%, TQ 3.4%
Beauport: QC21 34.1%, EMJS 31.1%, QFF 28.3%, DQ 3%, TQ 2.9%
La Haute-Saint-Charles: QC21 34.9%, QFF 30%, EMJS 29.6%, DQ 2.6%, TQ 2.2%

Full results: https://www.ville.quebec.qc.ca/apropos/elections-municipales/resultats/docs/2021-resultats-mairie-districts.pdf

Marchand (QFF) and Savard (EMJS) both had pretty evenly distributed support throughout the city, in both the older central areas and suburban areas. Marchand did well in older, wealthy neighbourhoods like Sillery and Montcalm/Saint-Sacrement, and in general attracted a lot of soft centre-left/liberal support. Savard's support is similar, at lower levels, to Labeaume's support in 2017, weaker in both the downtown core and exurban periphery.

On the other hand, Gosselin (QC21) still had a very disproportionately exurban/suburban base, failing to gain ground in the more central areas. Smith (TQ) had, on the other hand, a very downtown-centric base: nearly 55% of all her votes came from a single borough, La Cité-Limoilou (in contrast, only 11% of Gosselin's votes came from that borough). Elsewhere, with the exception of Saint-Louis-Sillery and the Plateau de Sainte-Foy (where she won about 8%) which are around Laval University, she got low results and was a bit behind Rousseau (DQ), who also had a pretty downtown-centric vote. Smith won 25.1% in Limoilou district (a strong third), where her co-candidate won a seat for her, and her second-best result was 23% in Saint-Roch-Saint-Sauveur, which includes those two historically working-class Basse-Ville neighbourhoods which have seen some gentrification (similar to Limoilou).

Compare to the council results map (from Wikipedia)


I guess Louis-XIV and Loretteville are fairly wealthy? They seem to buck the trend of QFF doing well in suburbia.

ETA: Louis-XIV does seem to vote less Conservative than the rest of Charlesbourg, so that probably has something to do with it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Laval's council map:

[DL]

What confuses me is how Ile-Bizard went for Plante. I suppose Holness doing well had something to do with it. 

Plante already won L'Île-Bizard-Sainte-Geneviève in 2017, so Holness likely doesn't have much to do with it. It is indeed one of the more puzzling results, then as now, because it doesn't have the sort of demographics you'd associate with strong results for Plante, although I guess this proves that the lazy stereotypes-based analyses of candidates have their limits - as in 2017, Plante once again did relatively well in most suburban areas, with the exceptions of Montréal-Nord and Saint-Léonard. One could imagine that protection of green spaces and mobility are major issues: one of Plante's big projects is the creation of a large Grand Parc de l'Ouest that would include preserving large swathes of existing green spaces on the island, and her administration has moved ahead on replacing the only bridge linking the island to Montreal Island, which is nearing its end of life.

Interestingly, she was, unlike in 2017, much more popular than PM's candidate(s) in the borough: incumbent borough mayor Normand Marinacci was defeated, quite badly (34% to 48%) by EM's Stéphane Côte. Marinacci faced ethics charges (but was recently cleared by the municipal commission) and lost his three borough councillors (two retired, one defected to Holness' party).

Also worth noting that Bizard's traditionally the most "Bloc"--and in 2011, NDP--part of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

If I remember well, Bizard is unusually Francophone for West Island (and also, where Pauline Marois manor is).

There is something very bizarre about Ile Bizard - lol

[Hash]

I guess Louis-XIV and Loretteville are fairly wealthy? They seem to buck the trend of QFF doing well in suburbia.

Yes and no, I guess. Both districts have wealthy, highly educated suburban neighbourhoods (Bourg-Royal and Les Châtels/Montchâtel), but also include older, less affluent areas like the old town centres of the former municipalities of Loretteville and Charlesbourg. Those type of suburban areas in Quebec City do tend to be somewhat less right-wing. Not sure if that explains it.

Frustratingly, Quebec City puts out results by polling station but seems to have no map to go along with them, so I can't look at results at a more detailed level.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Gatineau:

[MaxQue]

Not very good map of the winner in Montreal by precinct:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/11/13/elections-municipales-coderre-boude-meme-dans-ses-forteresses

[MaxQue]

6 recount requests in Montreal:

Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce borough mayor (PM win by 212 votes)
Loyola district (in CdN-NDG; PM win by 97 votes)

Tétreaultville district (Mercier--Hochelaga-Maisonneuve borough) (EM win by 42 votes)

Outremont borough mayor (EM win by 23 votes)

Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor (PM win by 303 votes)
Pointe-aux-Prairies district (in RdP-PaT borough; PM win by 13 votes)

[StateBoiler]

Raymond Rougeau of the famous Quebec wrestling family and one-half of the Fabulous Rougeaus WWF tag team of the late 1980s elected Mayor of Rawdon.