TX-UTAustin: Abbott +9

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1456633180312596482?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More believable than the polls showing him ahead by just 1. I expect his margin to be closer to 9 points than 1 anyway.

[Matty]

Biden’s ratings in Texas and Arizona have basically reverted back to what Obama’s ratings were in those states.

I do wonder if we have to stop lumping Georgia in with Arizona and texas

Georgia is trending dem due to massive political demographic change

There is a case to be made that Arizona and texas just hated Trump and will stay center right for longer

[Sbane]

Biden’s ratings in Texas and Arizona have basically reverted back to what Obama’s ratings were in those states.

I do wonder if we have to stop lumping Georgia in with Arizona and texas

Georgia is trending dem due to massive political demographic change

There is a case to be made that Arizona and texas just hated Trump and will stay center right for longer

If the Republicans just stick with the Youngkin (or Abbott tbh) playbook, they will have a lot of success. Unfortunately, I think Trump is getting nominated again in 2024 and the Republican slide in the suburbs will continue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If VR passes, Beto said he would run, we do t know what Manchin abd Sinema will do after Spending, Debt Ceiling and Infrastructure are passed after Holidays

[President Johnson]

Likely/Safe Republican.

This won't be competitive, even with Beto. May have been to a degree the case in a Trump midterm, not in actual 2022 though.

[Umengus]

lol. Last polls were fake of course.

[MT Treasurer]

Abbott isn’t losing in 2022 (this is Safe R like FL), but it will be bad sign for the long term if Republicans can’t win this race by double digits. While I still think that most Democrats are too overconfident about flipping TX, Republicans shouldn’t get too complacent here just because they won big in a likely GOP wave year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott can lose only if VR reform, that's why Beto hasn't announced he's running he is waiting til after everything in Biden agenda to pass to see if Manchin and Sinema change their minds about a Carve out

But, the border crisis is affecting D's in FL and TX

[Person Man]

Abbott isn’t losing in 2022 (this is Safe R like FL), but it will be bad sign for the long term if Republicans can’t win this race by double digits. While I still think that most Democrats are too overconfident about flipping TX, Republicans shouldn’t get too complacent here just because they won big in a likely GOP wave year.

If they win by less than 10, Texas will be in the crosshairs coming out of Biden’s presidency.

[TodayJunior]

Margin is probably about right. All things considered.