FL — SaintLeoPoll: Rubio +18

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1456278764040515597?t=Cdpi4KZZkTfDu_U8...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Demings won't win as I said

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Safe D. Demnings will win all undecided voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Demings and Beasley have been unfortunately tarred with Socialistic Demings and Crist are raiding taxes in the Reconciliation Bill and FL races have been kept low by DeSanti
The only person in a wave insurance seat that can win is Ryan he is a moderate and is wave insurance to GA Runoff, I have donated to him and not a single poll has him behind by alot

[SnowLabrador]

Given the likely national environment in 2022, I could see it.

[Xing]

Even in a huge red wave, it's not going to be this lopsided without a 2010 type vote splitting situation. Rubio is all but safe, but I'm sticking with my prediction of a 7-8% win, possibly a bit more.

[President Johnson]

Worthless poll, too many undecideds.

I doubt that margin will be this much in the end, but it's certainly Likely Republican.

[Chips]

There's a fair chance Rubio could win this by double digits but 18 points is definitely a huge stretch.

[2016]

There's a fair chance Rubio could win this by double digits but 18 points is definitely a huge stretch.

Agreed! 18 Points is a bit too much. That being said the Trends working against Democrats. We could have more Registered Republicans then Registered Democrats by the end of the year which has never, ever happened in Florida.

In 2012 then Senator Bill Nelson beat Connie Mack IV, Son of former Senator Connie Mack 55.2 to 42.2.

So a double digit Rubio Win with more Regist. R's in the State then Regist D's is possible.

[Horus]

Florida is a safe R state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the Ds 55 th seat after OH, NC, DeSantis is way too popular to lose and people like So19 underestimate him

[TodayJunior]

Too many undecideds (as usual), but again, as I've said before, it's hard to see R's getting more than a 55% slice of the vote here (or >10% margin) here in a regular 2-person race here.

We need to pump the breaks here and let the events of this week simmer down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too many undecideds (as usual), but again, as I've said before, it's hard to see R's getting more than a 55% slice of the vote here (or >10% margin) here in a regular 2-person race here.

We need to pump the breaks here and let the events of this week simmer down.

Lol DeSantis and Rubio were there in Surfsidee and so was Debbie Wasserman Schultz, neither was Crist or Demings we're there, Demings and Crist aren't coming back

Biden praised DeSajtis for Surfside

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny users are still in denial about DEMING'S, guess what the D's ran a Demings candidate they won with Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, they lost with Gillium

[TodayJunior]

Should have chosen Stephanie Murphy. Oh well, there's always 2026.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should have chosen Stephanie Murphy. Oh well, there's always 2026.

This is a University poll D's haven't conceded FL , it's a 5pt race this poll had Rubio up by only 4 and that's right in am R plus 3 state

[Hollywood]

This is just my opinion at the moment, but it's all a true account of what's going on outside the D bubble. 

If inflation rises to the level that financial experts are indicating, this poll might be too pessimistic about Rubio's chances.  We're in a real serious situation where the economy is suffering from various inflationary forces, and the Chinese economy (our main trade partner) is contracting it manufacturing capacity as it braces for a humanitarian crisis.  There's just an endless stream of manure heading right for Democrats, and this guys cannot even pretend like he knows what he's doing. The solution to the problem seems to be pushing both Biden and Harris off a roof, and then maybe the next guy is competent and courageous enough to do some of things that they can't or won't. 

Republicans are already planning for 2022.  They're collecting information, recruiting an endless stream of volunteers, and demonstrating on street corners with signs that say "Bidenflation".  And everyone, black white or hispanic, knows and feels it and associates Biden with it. It don't matter if you believe it or not.  I was sick of the whole Trump obsession for years, but now everyone is tired of the BS and show trials.  Do something now. 

After the holidays were gonna get going in District 21, 22, and 23.  The election is over a year out, but Republicans in the know are telling me they think they already have the numbers.  They aren't bringing Trump in to campaign with the candidate cause he can go elsewhere drive up the base.  Youngkin knew it would be stupid.  The democrats didn't realize that bringing in Biden and Kamla was a very stupid move.  And now you got multiple polls showing Trump up against Biden and Kamala with a 2020 type victory, if not better.  lol. 

I never under-estimate the Democrat Parties ability to shoot themselves in the foot.  It's just nature.  When you have media that needs to get approval for questions then you're not qualified for the job. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

[Hollywood]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

It's more than just Cubans.  You got all kinds of Hispanics, especially South Americans.  Asians started showing up.  Every few weeks Republicans and trump guys holding signs on the side walk.  What was once a mostly white crowd of a hundred  people is now a significantly more diverse crowd of 500 people. 

Two of the Republicans running against these white old Democrats are black military veterans.  I would not be surprised if Democrats were left with 4-5 seats. 

If you're seeing me on the forum more often, it's a very bad sign for Democrats.   

[2016]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

It's more than just Cubans.  You got all kinds of Hispanics, especially South Americans.  Asians started showing up.  Every few weeks Republicans and trump guys holding signs on the side walk.  What was once a mostly white crowd of a hundred  people is now a significantly more diverse crowd of 500 people. 

Two of the Republicans running against these white old Democrats are black military veterans.  I would not be surprised if Democrats were left with 4-5 seats. 

If you're seeing me on the forum more often, it's a very bad sign for Democrats.   

Republicans will also have a Registration Advantage come 2022. By how much we have to wait until Dec 30 or the 1st Week of January.

Olowakandi or Mr Mandela Barnes is talking nonsese all the time. There are 3 Big Reasons why DeSantis won in 2018.

# 1 Democrats allowed him to pick a Latina (Jeannette Nunez) as Lt. Governor Running Mate!
# 2 In the Final Weeks of the Campaign DeSantis put out an Ad tying Gillum to Socialism, played the Venezuela Card hence Gillum underperformed in Miami-Dade!
# 3 While Trumps Overall Job Approval Nationally in 2018 was upside down his JA in FL was 51/48.

Finally Rubio won in 2016 because Patrick Murphy was an incredible bad Candidate. Val Demings is too the left of Murphy and if she continues to support the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Socialist Agenda she will get clobbered in South Florida. Winning Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange & Seminole Counties ain't going to offset what will happen in Miami-Dade.

[Hollywood]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

It's more than just Cubans.  You got all kinds of Hispanics, especially South Americans.  Asians started showing up.  Every few weeks Republicans and trump guys holding signs on the side walk.  What was once a mostly white crowd of a hundred  people is now a significantly more diverse crowd of 500 people. 

Two of the Republicans running against these white old Democrats are black military veterans.  I would not be surprised if Democrats were left with 4-5 seats. 

If you're seeing me on the forum more often, it's a very bad sign for Democrats.   

Republicans will also have a Registration Advantage come 2022. By how much we have to wait until Dec 30 or the 1st Week of January.

Olowakandi or Mr Mandela Barnes is talking nonsese all the time. There are 3 Big Reasons why DeSantis won in 2018.

# 1 Democrats allowed him to pick a Latina (Jeannette Nunez) as Lt. Governor Running Mate!
# 2 In the Final Weeks of the Campaign DeSantis put out an Ad tying Gillum to Socialism, played the Venezuela Card hence Gillum underperformed in Miami-Dade!
# 3 While Trumps Overall Job Approval Nationally in 2018 was upside down his JA in FL was 51/48.

Finally Rubio won in 2016 because Patrick Murphy was an incredible bad Candidate. Val Demings is too the left of Murphy and if she continues to support the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Socialist Agenda she will get clobbered in South Florida. Winning Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange & Seminole Counties ain't going to offset what will happen in Miami-Dade.

I just tune those guys out.  How many times must you say that we are far out from the election?   

Yeah. I remember the 51/48 in Florida.  I think he should wait to run for governor or Senate after 2022. But Biden and company might put in such good position in 2024, so what's the argument I can make against it?

I can't see them winning Seminole, Pinnelas and Hillsborough County at this time.  I don't care who they choose.   Miami-Dade maybe a nail-biter.  Am I bold enough to go West Palm Beach?  Not yet cause that area is a hypochondriac paradise. 

It's real simple.  It's the economy.  People that don't like Trump will vote for Trump cause it's a terrible situation.  You have people that hate Trump and will vote for Biden even though they think Trump is best for the economy.  That's why you have so many undecideds in polls.  If I hate guy, I can't vote against him if I feel like my financial security is at stake. 

Every Democrat you mentioned I don't even take seriously anymore.  They'll run Charlie Christ again even though he lost to babbling Tim Scott. 

[2016]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

It's more than just Cubans.  You got all kinds of Hispanics, especially South Americans.  Asians started showing up.  Every few weeks Republicans and trump guys holding signs on the side walk.  What was once a mostly white crowd of a hundred  people is now a significantly more diverse crowd of 500 people. 

Two of the Republicans running against these white old Democrats are black military veterans.  I would not be surprised if Democrats were left with 4-5 seats. 

If you're seeing me on the forum more often, it's a very bad sign for Democrats.   

Republicans will also have a Registration Advantage come 2022. By how much we have to wait until Dec 30 or the 1st Week of January.

Olowakandi or Mr Mandela Barnes is talking nonsese all the time. There are 3 Big Reasons why DeSantis won in 2018.

# 1 Democrats allowed him to pick a Latina (Jeannette Nunez) as Lt. Governor Running Mate!
# 2 In the Final Weeks of the Campaign DeSantis put out an Ad tying Gillum to Socialism, played the Venezuela Card hence Gillum underperformed in Miami-Dade!
# 3 While Trumps Overall Job Approval Nationally in 2018 was upside down his JA in FL was 51/48.

Finally Rubio won in 2016 because Patrick Murphy was an incredible bad Candidate. Val Demings is too the left of Murphy and if she continues to support the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Socialist Agenda she will get clobbered in South Florida. Winning Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange & Seminole Counties ain't going to offset what will happen in Miami-Dade.

I just tune those guys out.  How many times must you say that we are far out from the election?   

Yeah. I remember the 51/48 in Florida.  I think he should wait to run for governor or Senate after 2022. But Biden and company might put in such good position in 2024, so what's the argument I can make against it?

I can't see them winning Seminole, Pinnelas and Hillsborough County at this time.  I don't care who they choose.   Miami-Dade maybe a nail-biter.  Am I bold enough to go West Palm Beach?  Not yet cause that area is a hypochondriac paradise. 

It's real simple.  It's the economy.  People that don't like Trump will vote for Trump cause it's a terrible situation.  You have people that hate Trump and will vote for Biden even though they think Trump is best for the economy.  That's why you have so many undecideds in polls.  If I hate guy, I can't vote against him if I feel like my financial security is at stake. 

Every Democrat you mentioned I don't even take seriously anymore.  They'll run Charlie Christ again even though he lost to babbling Tim Scott. 

McAuliffe made a very big mistake by nationalize the Race in VA. He brought all these People in from Biden, Harris, Obama, Abrams, etc. and in every sentence he used the word "Trump". It did not work!
Youngkin squeezed even more Votes out in Rual Southwestern Virginia.

And you are right: It is the Economy. BBB will hurt Small Businesses a lot. If the Democrats push this through they will get clobbered in Florida and elsewhere.

[UWS]

DeSantis and Rubio aren't Rick Scott and DeSantis we, FL has a significant Cuban population that will reelect Rs and they gave a Cuban Embargo that benefits Rs


DeSajtis barely won in 2018 because Rick Scott

Rubio is more popular obviously than Demings and Latinos outnumbered Blks anyways

It's more than just Cubans.  You got all kinds of Hispanics, especially South Americans.  Asians started showing up.  Every few weeks Republicans and trump guys holding signs on the side walk.  What was once a mostly white crowd of a hundred  people is now a significantly more diverse crowd of 500 people. 

Two of the Republicans running against these white old Democrats are black military veterans.  I would not be surprised if Democrats were left with 4-5 seats. 

If you're seeing me on the forum more often, it's a very bad sign for Democrats.   

Republicans will also have a Registration Advantage come 2022. By how much we have to wait until Dec 30 or the 1st Week of January.

Olowakandi or Mr Mandela Barnes is talking nonsese all the time. There are 3 Big Reasons why DeSantis won in 2018.

# 1 Democrats allowed him to pick a Latina (Jeannette Nunez) as Lt. Governor Running Mate!
# 2 In the Final Weeks of the Campaign DeSantis put out an Ad tying Gillum to Socialism, played the Venezuela Card hence Gillum underperformed in Miami-Dade!
# 3 While Trumps Overall Job Approval Nationally in 2018 was upside down his JA in FL was 51/48.

Finally Rubio won in 2016 because Patrick Murphy was an incredible bad Candidate. Val Demings is too the left of Murphy and if she continues to support the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Socialist Agenda she will get clobbered in South Florida. Winning Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange & Seminole Counties ain't going to offset what will happen in Miami-Dade.

I just tune those guys out.  How many times must you say that we are far out from the election?   

Yeah. I remember the 51/48 in Florida.  I think he should wait to run for governor or Senate after 2022. But Biden and company might put in such good position in 2024, so what's the argument I can make against it?

I can't see them winning Seminole, Pinnelas and Hillsborough County at this time.  I don't care who they choose.   Miami-Dade maybe a nail-biter.  Am I bold enough to go West Palm Beach?  Not yet cause that area is a hypochondriac paradise. 

It's real simple.  It's the economy.  People that don't like Trump will vote for Trump cause it's a terrible situation.  You have people that hate Trump and will vote for Biden even though they think Trump is best for the economy.  That's why you have so many undecideds in polls.  If I hate guy, I can't vote against him if I feel like my financial security is at stake. 

Every Democrat you mentioned I don't even take seriously anymore.  They'll run Charlie Christ again even though he lost to babbling Tim Scott. 

¸

You mean Rick.

And nothing even guarantees that Crist will be the gubernatorial nominee as he flip-flopped on virtually every issue. The most recent poll shows Fried leading Crist by 3.

His counterpart for Senate Val Demings called the Minneapolis City Council proposal to defund, dismantle and replace the Minneapolis Police Department thoughtful and a reasonable proposal. Minneapolis voted 57 % against this idea. If not even such a deeply liberal city like Minneapolis agrees with Demings, Florida certainly doesn't.

[Schiff for Senate]

Given the likely national environment in 2022, I could see it.

Nope, not this much of a blowout, no.


The race is Safe Republican (and this is coming from someone who thinks FL GOV is likely Republican and FL generally is lean Republican), but as for the margin, I'd expect Rubio to win by 9-12 points. Anything more would likely require a very weak opponent.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's funny users are still in denial about DEMING'S, guess what the D's ran a Demings candidate they won with Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, they lost with Gillium

I should remind you that after winning reelection comfortably in 2012, Nelson lost (albeit by the skin of his teeth) in 2018 (a very blue year).

FL has gotten more Republican as of late - which is not to say that Democrats cannot win here (they absolutely can), but that no matter what the polls say (and here, they reinforce that point), Generic Republican inherently has a narrow advantage over Generic Democrat (a problem for the FL Democratic Party further compounded by the quality of their candidates as compared to the GOP's; they could've won FL GOV 2018 if they had nominates someone even slightly better than Gillum).

What I do want to say is the DSCC and Demings shouldn't delude themselves that this race is remotely winnable (and proceed to waste valuable campaign funds on it like they allowed donors to do in KY in 2020) - Rubio+18 kind of cements that point (not that Rubio will win by 18 points or even close to it).

Rubio is an electoral powerhouse who outperformed Trump 2016 by 6.5% in 2016 after promising not to run. In 2022, Miami-Dade will be much further rightward than 2016, 2022 will generally be a redder year than 2016, and Rubio won't suffer the apparently minor consequences of reneging a promise not to run for reelection.

Since Rubio won by a solid 7.7% in 2016, I'd imagine these three points would inflate his margin of victory to the double digits quite easily, and would make him the prohibitive favourite, such that Demings has pretty much no chance at a win.