If Abbott wins by more than in 2018

[Leroy McPherson fan]

What happened?

[SnowLabrador]

It was a red wave midterm, like the one we should expect given that a Democrat is President.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It means 2018 was a D wave election & 2022 was not a D wave election

[Cyrusman]

Why would this be a surprise? Should we expect him to do better given 2022 will be a much more favorable year for the GOP than 2018?

[DS0816]

What happened?

It would be reduced 2018-to-2022 support, specifically for Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, but it would be further set up Texas’s trend away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats. This would lead to a result in a U.S. presidential election which switches from the Republican to the Democratic column and Texas becomes a Democratic pickup state. My sense is that it will happen at some point during the 2030s.

[jamestroll]

That is almost impossible..

[MT Treasurer]

This would be extremely hilarious after all the abortion bill backlash hype, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen even on a very good night for Republicans, especially with Democrats seriously contesting the race (unlike in 2018). I think most of his crossover appeal is basically gone, so a R+8-10 win is probably more likely than R+>13.

I certainly don’t see him losing, though.

[Cyrusman]

This would be extremely hilarious after all the abortion bill backlash hype, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen even on a very good night for Republicans, especially with Democrats seriously contesting the race (unlike in 2018). I think most of his crossover appeal is basically gone, so a R+8-10 win is probably more likely than R+>13.

I certainly don’t see him losing, though.

Won’t 2022 be a much more favorable year for republicans compared to 2018 though?

[MargieCat]

This would be extremely hilarious after all the abortion bill backlash hype, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen even on a very good night for Republicans, especially with Democrats seriously contesting the race (unlike in 2018). I think most of his crossover appeal is basically gone, so a R+8-10 win is probably more likely than R+>13.

I certainly don’t see him losing, though.

I see him winning by somewhere between Trump's and Cornyn's margins in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

This would be extremely hilarious after all the abortion bill backlash hype, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen even on a very good night for Republicans, especially with Democrats seriously contesting the race (unlike in 2018). I think most of his crossover appeal is basically gone, so a R+8-10 win is probably more likely than R+>13.

I certainly don’t see him losing, though.

Won’t 2022 be a much more favorable year for republicans compared to 2018 though?

It will, but there are cases where even a substantial change in the national environment isn’t enough to outweigh the host of other, state-specific factors like erosion of the incumbent's crossover appeal, demographic changes and generational turnover, increased partisanship, and long-term changes in both parties' turnout patterns. We would be seeing the same thing in AZ if Ducey were eligible for another term, likely the same thing happening in MD if Hogan could run for another term, and will probably witness the same pattern in MA with Baker and VT with Scott (and certainly NH if Sununu somehow opts for another gubernatorial bid).

[THG]

Against a Beto running to the left of Biden on issues like immigration and guns, Abbott will win by around 10-15.

[amateur_psepho]

only way this happens is rgv trends get mega-accelerated and bleed into the urban areas like laredo and el paso a bit or a suburban snapback becomes very real in tarrant/fort bend/williamson. abbot would have to outperform cornyn last year and he has covid and abortion baggage he's dragging around + i really don't see how the dem floor in texas isn't at least 43% nowadays anyhow.

either way this would be a good indication dems had a pretty terrible night

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

Very likely since Beto is so awful

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Given the national environment and what we saw in VA, I think its very likely to happen. A new  Quinnipiac poll just dropped with Abbott up by 15.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3830

Based on the national environment and the undecideds, my guess is a 56-42 Abbott win with third party candidates picking up the scraps.

[Schiff for Senate]

I really hope O'Rourke wins. And while it's very, very tough (only slightly easier than Demings pulling it off in FL SEN), it could happen if the circumstances are right.

Still, Abbott might also win by more than the 2018 margin, given how much redder than 2018 2022 will likely be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, in a 304 map scenario Trump won by six if he wins absent a blue wave DeSantis and Abbott will win by the same exact margins Trump won by, the University of Tyler poll had it six, not 15 and DeSantis will win by 3 not 10

We've gotta remember DeSantis came back from six down with a mnth left and put this R wave in perspective it's not even Jan yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Against a Beto running to the left of Biden on issues like immigration and guns, Abbott will win by around 10-15.

DeSsntis came back on Gillum with a mnth left six pts down it's not even Jan yet

[EastwoodS]

That is almost impossible..

Yeah please convince yourself of that, it makes it all the more enjoyable when you all are wrong, eye rolling when y’all typically learn nothing from it