WI - Marquette Law: Biden +4

[neostassenite31]

Joe Biden (D-inc) - 45%
The Dear Leader (R) - 41%
Neither - 11%
Don't know - 3%

Oct. 26-31, 2021 (805 RV)
MoE: 3.9%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1455949902673027079
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2021/11/03/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-poll-october-26-31-2021/

[neostassenite31]

Biden approval (general):
43% approve
53% disapprove

Biden approval on handling of the pandemic:
50% approve
46% disapprove

Biden approval on handling of the economy:
39% approve
56% disapprove

(all in Wisconsin only)

[SnowLabrador]

I don't believe this remotely.

[DabbingSanta]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

[SnowLabrador]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

[DabbingSanta]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Yikes.

[neostassenite31]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Marquette was way off in 2020 and this sample is also too college educated, not that it even matters after 2020 polling failures

[DabbingSanta]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Marquette was way off in 2020 and this sample is also too college educated, not that it even matters after 2020 polling failures

Were they the folks that published the +17 Biden poll last year? 

[GregTheGreat657]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

No, that was a WaPo/ABC News poll
It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Marquette was way off in 2020 and this sample is also too college educated, not that it even matters after 2020 polling failures

Were they the folks that published the +17 Biden poll last year? 

[DaleCooper]

Marquette is one of the better Wisconsin polls. Low bar, I know, but they rarely overestimated Biden's final vote share and were more conservative than most, and that was before the polling industry supposedly changed its methods to improve after 2020 (lol). Marquette did not publish the +17 poll, that was Washington Post (I think?). Marquette also released an unfavorable poll regarding Governor Evers at the same time as this.

Point is, don't take this as gospel, but don't write it off. It's entirely possible for voters in a swing state to be split and undecided between two unpopular candidates.

[Bootes Void]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Marquette was way off in 2020 and this sample is also too college educated, not that it even matters after 2020 polling failures

Were they the folks that published the +17 Biden poll last year? 

No that was ABC, Marquette is considered to be the "gold standard" in Wisconsin polls

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

All I'm getting from this poll is that Wisconsin is Lean R now.  Am I missing something?

That sounds pretty accurate. Biden's at 45% in this poll, and that's all he's getting in Wisconsin in 2024. I think Biden loses WI about 52-45, and Baldwin loses too, probably by 3-5 points.

No, that was a WaPo/ABC News poll
It's pretty sad that the polling industry is this bad now, but glad we're in agreement lol.

Marquette was way off in 2020 and this sample is also too college educated, not that it even matters after 2020 polling failures

Were they the folks that published the +17 Biden poll last year? 

No, they had Biden +5

[Person Man]

I can believe he will win by 4% or lose by 4%. It could come down to the wire again.

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden (D-inc) - 45%
The Dear Leader (R) - 41%
Neither - 11%
Don't know - 3%

Oct. 26-31, 2021 (805 RV)
MoE: 3.9%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1455949902673027079
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2021/11/03/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-poll-october-26-31-2021/

This is a remarkable divide. Yes, the economy is a mess, and the usual explanation is disruptions in the supply chain. COVID-19 seems to be the cause of all economic ills, and when it is over, life will be back to normal except perhaps for a higher, if stable, level of prices.

This does not say that someone other than Donald Trump would win Wisconsin, quite possible the tipping point state of 2024. A Republican nominee will need a coherent message to convince a majority of Wisconsin voters to vote R. The full impact of COVID-19 is yet unknown, and if it is heavily killing MAGA types and the causes of political polarization mean the same, then such will make 2024 a disaster for the GOP. ,