Pennsylvania Statewide Election Discussion - 11/2

[wbrocks67]

Brobson's lead over McLaughlin has shrunken to 34,815 votes (1.26% margin). There are still some mail-ins and provisionals left to count, but definitely not enough for McLaughlin to make up the deficit. Pain.

Dumas's lead over Crompton has grown to 12K, so it's safe to say that she has secured a win.

McLaughlin won Erie county county by 14 points while Timika lost it by 9... that's kinda interesting. Is Sullivan from that area?

Also, McLaughlin getting 62.5% of the vote in Allegheny county is quite impressive. It looks like Democrats clearing 60% there is the new normal, thanks to the realignment.

At least according to the Northeast Times, Sullivan was born in Juniata and lives in Paoli now.

I was also surprised how strongly McLaughlin won Erie County, especially since she's still trailing narrowly in Dauphin and Bucks. I know state supreme court races don't always match up with other statewide partisan results, but I still wouldn't have guessed she would carry Erie in a landslide before those two.

Yeah, McLaughlin running up the score is pretty surprising in not only Erie but Lackawanna as well. Dems usually have downballot strength in Lackawanna, but nearly 20% in pretty incredible there.

Some of the other places are kind of surprising - Dauphin really swung against Ds this cycle after Biden won it by 8. It's never been a Dem stronghold, but both it and Cumberland swung much R this time around.

Delaware has McLaughlin +10 which is actually pretty good considering they tend to have among the most mean reversion in off-year elections. Chester is McLaughlin +7, which is closer to 2016 levels than 2020 levels.

Montgomery held the strongest of the suburban counties, McLaughlin is likely to end up with a Clinton +21-type margin there (Biden won by 26).

Philly is the most frustrating, b/c although turnout was actually up here vs 2017 (22% this year, vs 20% in 2017), if it was even at like 25%, McLaughlin would've netted enough to win.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes in today - 2,000 mail-in/provisionals counted in Philly, and they broke about 1800-200 for McLaughlin.

Bucks counted a few more votes and a few provisionals, and McLaughlin now down 2% there instead of 3%.

McLaughlin now only down 32,000 (1.16%) statewide, 50.58-49.42%.

Lori Dumas extends her lead over Drew Crompton to about 15,000+ votes now, and 0.30%. She may actually get close to that 0.5% threshold once all votes are counted, but who knows if Crompton will ask for the recount.

[Badger]

Brobson's lead over McLaughlin has shrunken to 34,815 votes (1.26% margin). There are still some mail-ins and provisionals left to count, but definitely not enough for McLaughlin to make up the deficit. Pain.

Dumas's lead over Crompton has grown to 12K, so it's safe to say that she has secured a win.

McLaughlin won Erie county county by 14 points while Timika lost it by 9... that's kinda interesting. Is Sullivan from that area?

Also, McLaughlin getting 62.5% of the vote in Allegheny county is quite impressive. It looks like Democrats clearing 60% there is the new normal, thanks to the realignment.

At least according to the Northeast Times, Sullivan was born in Juniata and lives in Paoli now.

I was also surprised how strongly McLaughlin won Erie County, especially since she's still trailing narrowly in Dauphin and Bucks. I know state supreme court races don't always match up with other statewide partisan results, but I still wouldn't have guessed she would carry Erie in a landslide before those two.

Yeah, McLaughlin running up the score is pretty surprising in not only Erie but Lackawanna as well. Dems usually have downballot strength in Lackawanna, but nearly 20% in pretty incredible there.

Some of the other places are kind of surprising - Dauphin really swung against Ds this cycle after Biden won it by 8. It's never been a Dem stronghold, but both it and Cumberland swung much R this time around.

Delaware has McLaughlin +10 which is actually pretty good considering they tend to have among the most mean reversion in off-year elections. Chester is McLaughlin +7, which is closer to 2016 levels than 2020 levels.

Montgomery held the strongest of the suburban counties, McLaughlin is likely to end up with a Clinton +21-type margin there (Biden won by 26).

Philly is the most frustrating, b/c although turnout was actually up here vs 2017 (22% this year, vs 20% in 2017), if it was even at like 25%, McLaughlin would've netted enough to win.

So wait a minute: If McLaughlin did so well in major counties, and turnout rates in Philly actually improved from 4 years ago, how'd she still lose (albeit narrowly)? Did Brobson run up Mega margins in the rural counties even compared to Trump?

[wbrocks67]

Here are the shifts currently from the last SC race in 2017 to now. Really jarring shifts that would make you think McLaughlin won this race, since Woodruff lost by 4.5%.

I'd have to take a closer look, but given these crazy swings here, the rurals must've gotten even more red though than last time to counter act this (plus low turnout in Philly again did not help), and the minor ~1.5% swing in Allegheny didn't help either, since that's the biggest turnout county.

Erie
2017: Mundy (R) +9.5
2021: McLaughlin (D) +14.5

Allegheny
2017: Woodruff (D) +26.4
2021: McLaughlin (D) +25

Centre
2017: Woodruff (D) +1.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Luzerne
2017: Mundy (R) +22.7
2021: Brobson (R) +13.2

Lackawanna
2017: Mundy (R) +3.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +18.6

Lancaster
2017: Mundy (R) +30.5
2021: Brobson (R) +24

Dauphin
2017: Mundy (R) +19
2021: Brobson (R) +3.5

Monroe
2017: Mundy (R) +10.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Northampton
2017: Mundy (R) +3.2
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.3

Lehigh
2017: Mundy (R) +2.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.2

Berks
2017: Mundy (R) +21.5
2021: Brobson (R) +14.7

Bucks
2017: Mundy (R) +1.9
2021: Brobson (R) +2.2

Montgomery
2017: Woodruff (D) +14.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +20.4

Chester
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +6.7

Delaware
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +10.2

Philadelphia
2017: Woodruff (D) +60.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +65.1

[Badger]

Here are the shifts currently from the last SC race in 2017 to now. Really jarring shifts that would make you think McLaughlin won this race, since Woodruff lost by 4.5%.

I'd have to take a closer look, but given these crazy swings here, the rurals must've gotten even more red though than last time to counter act this (plus low turnout in Philly again did not help), and the minor ~1.5% swing in Allegheny didn't help either, since that's the biggest turnout county.

Erie
2017: Mundy (R) +9.5
2021: McLaughlin (D) +14.5

Allegheny
2017: Woodruff (D) +26.4
2021: McLaughlin (D) +25

Centre
2017: Woodruff (D) +1.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Luzerne
2017: Mundy (R) +22.7
2021: Brobson (R) +13.2

Lackawanna
2017: Mundy (R) +3.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +18.6

Lancaster
2017: Mundy (R) +30.5
2021: Brobson (R) +24

Dauphin
2017: Mundy (R) +19
2021: Brobson (R) +3.5

Monroe
2017: Mundy (R) +10.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Northampton
2017: Mundy (R) +3.2
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.3

Lehigh
2017: Mundy (R) +2.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.2

Berks
2017: Mundy (R) +21.5
2021: Brobson (R) +14.7

Bucks
2017: Mundy (R) +1.9
2021: Brobson (R) +2.2

Montgomery
2017: Woodruff (D) +14.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +20.4

Chester
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +6.7

Delaware
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +10.2

Philadelphia
2017: Woodruff (D) +60.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +65.1

 That Luzerne County flip is brutal. Does Brobson live there?

[Mexican Wolf]

Here are the shifts currently from the last SC race in 2017 to now. Really jarring shifts that would make you think McLaughlin won this race, since Woodruff lost by 4.5%.

I'd have to take a closer look, but given these crazy swings here, the rurals must've gotten even more red though than last time to counter act this (plus low turnout in Philly again did not help), and the minor ~1.5% swing in Allegheny didn't help either, since that's the biggest turnout county.

Erie
2017: Mundy (R) +9.5
2021: McLaughlin (D) +14.5

Allegheny
2017: Woodruff (D) +26.4
2021: McLaughlin (D) +25

Centre
2017: Woodruff (D) +1.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Luzerne
2017: Mundy (R) +22.7
2021: Brobson (R) +13.2

Lackawanna
2017: Mundy (R) +3.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +18.6

Lancaster
2017: Mundy (R) +30.5
2021: Brobson (R) +24

Dauphin
2017: Mundy (R) +19
2021: Brobson (R) +3.5

Monroe
2017: Mundy (R) +10.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Northampton
2017: Mundy (R) +3.2
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.3

Lehigh
2017: Mundy (R) +2.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.2

Berks
2017: Mundy (R) +21.5
2021: Brobson (R) +14.7

Bucks
2017: Mundy (R) +1.9
2021: Brobson (R) +2.2

Montgomery
2017: Woodruff (D) +14.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +20.4

Chester
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +6.7

Delaware
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +10.2

Philadelphia
2017: Woodruff (D) +60.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +65.1

 That Luzerne County flip is brutal. Does Brobson live there?

As far as I know, Brobson is from Lycoming County and currently lives in Dauphin.

[wbrocks67]

One area where Ds did worse was Westmoreland, right next to Allegheny.

2017: Mundy (R) +16.5 (52.3k turnout)
2021: Brobson (R) +21.7 (85.7k turnout)

Areas like Mercer were also worse.

2017: Mundy (R) +17 (18.3k turnout)
2021: Brobson (R) +23.5 (23.5k turnout)

So while a lot of the ancestral D areas snapped back, a lot of the rurals continued to decline for Ds. Turnout was up pretty much everywhere in raw # everywhere, but these margins in the red areas were enough to offset the strong margins for Democrats in D-trending areas and even Ancestral D areas.

Ds of course cannot count on prez-level margins in the suburbs either in areas like Delaware County, where Rs have ancestral strength (and Chester too). Montgomery, however, has mostly bucked the 'ancestral R' trend though, and has held up the best among the suburban counties.

Very interesting though too - despite turnout way up in Bucks b/c of polarized school board races (and that $500K dumped in for those races as well by a rich republican), the fact that it was only R+2 in an off year when Bucks has been trending kind of right is also interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Dumas race is going to a recount, even though she's up nearly 20,000 votes.

Here's the latest statewide count, though it's still incomplete, especially with no provisionals yet from Delaware and Montgomery counties. McLaughlin will end up losing by <1%

Supreme Court
Brobson (R) 1,394,243 (50.50%)
McLaughlin (D) 1,366,659 (49.50%)
Lead: R +1.00%

Superior Court
Sullivan (R) 1,461,627 (53.18%)
Lane (D) 1,287,025 (46.82%)
Lead: R +6.36%

Commonwealth Court
Wallace (R) 1,352,287 (26.59%)
Dumas (D)  1,291,492 (25.39%)
Crompton (R) 1,272,039 (25.01%)
Spurgeon (D) 1,170,699 (23.02%)
Overall lead: R +3.18%

[Sir Mohamed]

^^ SnowLabrador will use this as evidence all PA 2022 races are Safe R.

[wbrocks67]

Lori Dumas officially wins the second spot on the Commonwealth Court! Not a total GOP sweep after all

Heartbreaking for Supreme Court race, Brobson ends up beating McLaughlin by only 0.9% and 25,000 votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of users are gonna think the rust belt is Safe R, Trump is leading Biden in WI, PA and MI and Whitmer is 6 pts behind James

I don't understand why they refuse to poll states except LATINX states like FL, TX and AZ how many polls have we gotten from those states

Just like they won't  poll OH and NC Sen