Was VA-GOV 2013 a fluke?

[Sir Mohamed]

Was McAuliffe's gubernatorial win in 2013 pretty much a fluke? Not just Obama was already unpopular by the time the election came around, the dude only won with 47.8% of the vote while the Libertarian candidate pulled 6.5%. Without the Libertarian or if VA had a GA-style runoff system, McAuliffe would have lost in my opinion.

[THG]

Ken Cuccinelli was also a pretty awful candidate for Virginia. He was openly celebrating the government shutdown….. while running in Virginia of all states.

[Person Man]

You mean kookinelli?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes. It was all thanks to Cuccinelli.

Ironically, with Murphy likely being re-elected (pathetically) this year might be the inverse of that with Murphy being this year's McAuliffe. Thankfully, Murphy is term-limited and we don't have to worry about him s***ting the bed in a future election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Was McAuliffe's gubernatorial win in 2013 pretty much a fluke? Not just Obama was already unpopular by the time the election came around, the dude only won with 47.8% of the vote while the Libertarian candidate pulled 6.5%. Without the Libertarian or if VA had a GA-style runoff system, McAuliffe would have lost in my opinion.

I was about to pose the same question, albeit from a different perspective.
Virginia is an anti-bellwether state when it comes to gubernatorial elections; starting from 1977, when Republican candidate John Dalton defeated Democrat Henry Howell in a landslide, that sate has always voted for the nominee of the president's opposing party.
I thought T-Mac's 2013 victory were proof of the beginning of a realignment, where Virginia established itself as a new safe blue state. However, in hindsight, the result of that election turns out to be a mere fluke.

[Skill and Chance]

Ken Cuccinelli was also a pretty awful candidate for Virginia. He was openly celebrating the government shutdown….. while running in Virginia of all states.

Yep, the "only won because their opponent was awful" effect strikes again.  They can hold on narrowly against a normal candidate if they won by double digits against the crazy/scandalized person (JBE in 2019), but otherwise it's over. Bodes very, very poorly for Laura Kelly in 2022 and Andy Beshear in 2023. 

[THG]

Ken Cuccinelli was also a pretty awful candidate for Virginia. He was openly celebrating the government shutdown….. while running in Virginia of all states.

Yep, the "only won because their opponent was awful" effect strikes again.  They can hold on narrowly against a normal candidate if they won by double digits against the crazy/scandalized person (JBE in 2019), but otherwise it's over. Bodes very, very poorly for Laura Kelly in 2022 and Andy Beshear in 2023. 

Bashear will lose by well over 20 points. Kelly by under 11, but still a sizable loss.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

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Bashear will lose by well over 20 points. Kelly by under 11, but still a sizable loss.

And this is a very, very ominous sign for Evers, Whitmer, Sisolak, the dem nominee in PA too.

Next year I expect to see the WOW counties and the Grand Rapids area to really rebound for the GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I also don't think we should count out Bob McDonnell's unpopularity with his corruption issues too.

McAuliffe really had a perfect storm to defy the historical pattern.

[Flyersfan232]

Ken Cuccinelli was also a pretty awful candidate for Virginia. He was openly celebrating the government shutdown….. while running in Virginia of all states.

if a libertarian got 6% then i think ken could have pull it off

[Mr. Reactionary]

I also don't think we should count out Bob McDonnell's unpopularity with his corruption issues too.

McAuliffe really had a perfect storm to defy the historical pattern.

I was a GOP Convention Delegate in 2013 and any time McDonnell's name was mentioned over the loudspeaker for whatever reason, there were audible boos. A lot of us feel betrayed by McDonnell. He was the first person i ever voted for. I defended him for 3 years. And despite being the head of lawyer ethics and discipline for 4 years as AG,  he took a fuqin Rolex. POS. I was sad when SCOTUS unanimously kept him out of jail.

[morgieb]

Yes, it's very likely that a non-Cuccinelli R beats McAuliffe comfortably. Back then he was a lot less popular than he is now.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, it wasn’t the same level of fluke as, say, MI-SEN 2014, but yes, it’s pretty obvious that Cuccinelli underperformed the fundamentals a lot that year and was seriously hurt by Sarvis's strong showing and the government shutdown. I will also say that these off-year (and regular midterm) elections tend to be more brutal for the party in the White House when they hold a trifecta (1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 vs. 1998, 2002, 2014).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Mustn't it suck to receive a higher percentage than the last time you won and still lose? That must be bitter for T-Mac...