Eagleton-NJ- Murphy +8
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  Eagleton-NJ- Murphy +8		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Eagleton-NJ- Murphy +8  (Read 836 times)
Matty
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« on: November 01, 2021, 12:39:02 PM »
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Gov. Phil Murphy has an eight-point lead, 50%-42%, over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in tomorrow’s gubernatorial election, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released on Monday.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-has-8-point-lead-over-ciattarelli-in-new-rutgers-eagleton-poll/
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 12:55:27 PM »
Seems a lot more accurate than the Trafalgar one. I think this is where the race ultimately ends up.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 01:00:01 PM »
Most of the final polls have been Murphy +8-11, though I think it's closer to 11 than 8.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 02:12:40 PM »
About in line with my prediction.
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Matty
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 02:27:05 PM »
Could the gop have won here if there was no Dem incumbent?
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Chips
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2021, 02:33:23 PM »
Quote from: Matty on November 01, 2021, 02:27:05 PM
Could the gop have won here if there was no Dem incumbent?

Possibly?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2021, 03:54:02 PM »
Quote from: Matty on November 01, 2021, 02:27:05 PM
Could the gop have won here if there was no Dem incumbent?

It still would've been hard. Ciatarelli isn't even well-liked and Murphy hasn't gone as hard as he could on him. You still have people considering him "moderate GOP" and his fav/unfav is about net even in most polls, if not a few points underwater
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2021, 04:54:07 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2021, 03:54:02 PM
Quote from: Matty on November 01, 2021, 02:27:05 PM
Could the gop have won here if there was no Dem incumbent?

It still would've been hard. Ciatarelli isn't even well-liked and Murphy hasn't gone as hard as he could on him. You still have people considering him "moderate GOP" and his fav/unfav is about net even in most polls, if not a few points underwater

Could you point to one of those polls? All of the ones I've actually checked have him around +5-7 with relatively low ID.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2021, 04:57:23 PM »
Quote from: RoboWop on November 01, 2021, 04:54:07 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2021, 03:54:02 PM
Quote from: Matty on November 01, 2021, 02:27:05 PM
Could the gop have won here if there was no Dem incumbent?

It still would've been hard. Ciatarelli isn't even well-liked and Murphy hasn't gone as hard as he could on him. You still have people considering him "moderate GOP" and his fav/unfav is about net even in most polls, if not a few points underwater

Could you point to one of those polls? All of the ones I've actually checked have him around +5-7 with relatively low ID.

Sure!

Rutgers has him -1 with RV and -3 in adults
https://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Rutgers-Eagleton-Poll-NJ-Gov-Election-11.1.21.docx-1.pdf

FDU had him +2
https://www.fdu.edu/news/murphy-retains-lead-builds-momentum-among-independents/
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