Trafalgar: Youngkin +2.3

[S019]

Traf has literally admitted to adding points to the Republican candidate, this means TMac is an all likelihood up in this sample. In any case, R+2 in a Trafalgar poll is clearly a good result for the Democratic candidate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Not an expert, but I has always thought, that pollsters don't disclose decimals for not giving normies false impression of accuracy, but per se there is nothing wrong at all to specify them. For averaging purpose, it is probably even a marginally good thing.


Re: Trafy, they showed imo decent track record on average, even though they clearly have a R-bias (relatively to other polls). Perhaps, only lucky. At least, they are not herding lmao. Publishing Murphy+4, despite all sh**t they are very likely going to get is cool 

[2016]

Traf has literally admitted to adding points to the Republican candidate, this means TMac is an all likelihood up in this sample. In any case, R+2 in a Trafalgar poll is clearly a good result for the Democratic candidate.

Nonsense!!! If Sabato is shifting the Race to Leans Republican Youngkin has probably more than an even shot to win tomorrow. Virginia is Sabatos own backyard. They know their State pretty well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do Republican pollsters want to risk Democrats to turn out at even higher rates? Because with all these Youngkin-leading polls, I would not be shocked to see a tide of pro-Dem Election Day voters.

[Brittain33]

This is by far the most encouraging sign I’ve seen for TMac in several days.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Means TMac +4 with the usual 6 point bias.

The  'gold standard' Trafalgar was off by 14 points in the 2021 California Gubernatorial race and 8 points off in Virginia in 2017. The 6 point Republican bias is understated.

Trafalgar is a joke outside of the Midwest.

[Devils30]

Means TMac +4 with the usual 6 point bias.

The  'gold standard' Trafalgar was off by 14 points in the 2021 California Gubernatorial race and 8 points off in Virginia in 2017. The 6 point Republican bias is understated.

Trafalgar is a joke outside of the Midwest.

Even in the Midwest they basically just made up the numbers and got lucky.

[lfromnj]

Means TMac +4 with the usual 6 point bias.

The  'gold standard' Trafalgar was off by 14 points in the 2021 California Gubernatorial race and 8 points off in Virginia in 2017. The 6 point Republican bias is understated.

Trafalgar is a joke outside of the Midwest.

Even in the Midwest they basically just made up the numbers and got lucky.

I mean they polled the region fairly correctly in 2018. Polls like LOLMussen didn't do that either.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Gold standard.

[Green Line]

Gold standard.

I say it every election, but nobody listens.

[Buzz]

Bow down!

[ElectionsGuy]

Note how posters here still treat Trafalgar like trash after proving themselves time and again. First it was "they struck lightening" in 2016, then it was "they're only good when Trump's on the ballot and only in the Midwest". Now what?

[Alben Barkley]

Note how posters here still treat Trafalgar like trash after proving themselves time and again. First it was "they struck lightening" in 2016, then it was "they're only good when Trump's on the ballot and only in the Midwest". Now what?

This still doesn’t change the fact that they’ve also had some hilariously wild misses, especially since 2016. If a pollster is just a homer skewing numbers for their team, then naturally they will always look right whenever their team happens to win. But not so much when they don’t.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Liberal polls strike again

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Note how posters here still treat Trafalgar like trash after proving themselves time and again. First it was "they struck lightening" in 2016, then it was "they're only good when Trump's on the ballot and only in the Midwest". Now what?

This still doesn’t change the fact that they’ve also had some hilariously wild misses, especially since 2016. If a pollster is just a homer skewing numbers for their team, then naturally they will always look right whenever their team happens to win. But not so much when they don’t.

As ALL pollsters do, if they doesn't hedge - stats 101. What happens, if you average their results? Well 538 does just that and gives Trafalgar an A rating.


Perhaps, a lot of people will now attack Fox News poll. It will probably be cherry-picked as an evidence, that they has strong R-bias. But their results are inside MOE and on average it is a descent pollster as well.

[2016]

Note how posters here still treat Trafalgar like trash after proving themselves time and again. First it was "they struck lightening" in 2016, then it was "they're only good when Trump's on the ballot and only in the Midwest". Now what?

This still doesn’t change the fact that they’ve also had some hilariously wild misses, especially since 2016. If a pollster is just a homer skewing numbers for their team, then naturally they will always look right whenever their team happens to win. But not so much when they don’t.

As ALL pollsters do, if they doesn't hedge - stats 101. What happens, if you average their results? Well 538 does just that and gives Trafalgar an A rating.


Perhaps, a lot of people will now attack Fox News poll. It will probably be cherry-picked as an evidence, that they has strong R-bias. But their results are inside MOE and on average it is a descent pollster as well.

The FOX POLL showed pretty much one thing: Late Deciders breaking heavily Republican. You don't get a DEAD HEAT in New Jersey without Late Deciders breaking in one Direction.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still don't know what to think about Trafalgar. Yeah, they nailed another election. But possibly missed with another (New Jersey).

[lfromnj]

I still don't know what to think about Trafalgar. Yeah, they nailed another election. But possibly missed with another (New Jersey).

They said Murphy +4?

Seems like its going to be +1 or +2?

[2016]

I still don't know what to think about Trafalgar. Yeah, they nailed another election. But possibly missed with another (New Jersey).

They did not miss New Jersey. When everything is counted Murphy wins by 2-3 Percentage Points. Factor in the MOE of their 4.2 lead they nailed this one as well.