TX-RiceUniversity: Abbott +1
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Author Topic: TX-RiceUniversity: Abbott +1  (Read 1062 times)
BigSerg
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« on: November 01, 2021, 09:33:14 AM »

Abbott (R) 40%
O'Rourke (D) 37%
McConaughey (I) 9% xd

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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 11:14:50 AM »

Abbott will win by high single digits at a minimum.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 11:18:22 AM »

Not believable, but I'd certainly enjoy seeing Abbott at least get a reduced margin for his shenanigans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 01:01:35 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2021, 01:08:44 PM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

Not believable, but I'd certainly enjoy seeing Abbott at least get a reduced margin for his shenanigans.

It's a Blk and Brown and Female election not a White male Election but Beto hasn't formed and expiratory committee or made an announcement
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 03:42:14 PM »

That's plus three, not one?

Anyway, worthless poll with so many undecideds. Regardless I don't see how this is becoming a competitive race. At best a likely margin, otherwise this is Safe Republican unless proven otherwise.
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Oppo
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2021, 07:01:14 PM »

That's plus three, not one?

Anyway, worthless poll with so many undecideds. Regardless I don't see how this is becoming a competitive race. At best a likely margin, otherwise this is Safe Republican unless proven otherwise.
Without McConaughey, Abbott leads 43%-42%.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2021, 07:05:59 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2021, 10:41:45 AM »

Safe R
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THG
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2021, 11:58:41 AM »

What a laughable poll. Is this the same one with a D+3 sample?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2022, 04:06:24 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.

He won't.

a.) 2022 is to be much redder than 2018
b.) Abbott is much more popular than Cruz
c.) Back in 2018, O'Rourke was young and fresh-faced; now, he's got 2018 and that quixotic 2020 presidential bid under his belt
d.) Related to c.), O'Rourke is much more polarizing because of his presidential race; I'd point especially to the AR15 line he made (TX loves its guns; even Democrats there like them)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2022, 04:44:11 PM »

Add 6% for an incumbent seeking re-election to early polling' incumbent Senators and Governors usually show in campaigning why they first got elected. What I say about Whitmer in Michigan applies in Texas. O'Rourke wins here if he can show that Texas' treatment of COVID-19 is a scandal... but remember that the right-tending political culture in Texas is well entrenched. Maybe it isn'tas well entrenched as ten years ago, but it would have to erode very fast to allow the defeat of an incumbent Governor or Senator.   
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2022, 04:58:35 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.

He won't.

a.) 2022 is to be much redder than 2018
b.) Abbott is much more popular than Cruz
c.) Back in 2018, O'Rourke was young and fresh-faced; now, he's got 2018 and that quixotic 2020 presidential bid under his belt
d.) Related to c.), O'Rourke is much more polarizing because of his presidential race; I'd point especially to the AR15 line he made (TX loves its guns; even Democrats there like them)
We shall see. You raise some good points.
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progressive85
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2022, 05:51:23 AM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2022, 04:50:07 PM »

This was a November poll nice try Beto is down 15 pts
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2022, 09:35:16 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular
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progressive85
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2022, 09:38:52 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2022, 09:41:44 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

That’s a good question and I’m curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents
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progressive85
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2022, 10:49:20 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

That’s a good question and I’m curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2022, 10:50:12 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

That’s a good question and I’m curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.

Texas doesn't have gubernatorial term limits.
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progressive85
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« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2022, 10:50:58 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular because…every poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol it’s not some crazy conspiracy to convince people he’s popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

That’s a good question and I’m curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.

Texas doesn't have gubernatorial term limits.
Should it?
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Hollywood
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2022, 10:55:33 PM »

Abbott is winning the state by 15-18 points.  I guarantee he's already above 55% in the state.  The Poll over-sample Democrats by 19 point, and failed to properly adjust.  https://www.txhpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/TxHPF-2022gubernatorialelection.pdf

At this point, every Democrat is just putting out false information.  Articles claim that this pollster is unbiased even though they were commission by a Political Action Group camouflaged as charities like the Clinton Foundation.  This is another case of Multinational Corporations influencing elections by cleaning their money with funds used to for actual charitable purposes. 

Abbot is going to win by huge margins just like DeSantis. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2022, 09:28:34 PM »

Beto is DONE , his path was Voting Rights that's why he campaigned on it he will lose 55/45
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