TX-RiceUniversity: Abbott +1
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 20, 2022, 10:08:55 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2022 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  TX-RiceUniversity: Abbott +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TX-RiceUniversity: Abbott +1  (Read 687 times)
BigSerg
7sergi9
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,969


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 01, 2021, 09:33:14 AM »

Abbott (R) 40%
O'Rourke (D) 37%
McConaughey (I) 9% xd

Logged
SnowLabrador
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,687
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 11:14:50 AM »

Abbott will win by high single digits at a minimum.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,814
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 11:18:22 AM »

Not believable, but I'd certainly enjoy seeing Abbott at least get a reduced margin for his shenanigans.
Logged
SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 60,742
Jamaica


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 01:01:35 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2021, 01:08:44 PM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

Not believable, but I'd certainly enjoy seeing Abbott at least get a reduced margin for his shenanigans.

It's a Blk and Brown and Female election not a White male Election but Beto hasn't formed and expiratory committee or made an announcement
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,104
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 03:42:14 PM »

That's plus three, not one?

Anyway, worthless poll with so many undecideds. Regardless I don't see how this is becoming a competitive race. At best a likely margin, otherwise this is Safe Republican unless proven otherwise.
Logged
Oppo
Rookie
**
Posts: 107


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2021, 07:01:14 PM »

That's plus three, not one?

Anyway, worthless poll with so many undecideds. Regardless I don't see how this is becoming a competitive race. At best a likely margin, otherwise this is Safe Republican unless proven otherwise.
Without McConaughey, Abbott leads 43%-42%.
Logged
Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,760
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2021, 07:05:59 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,308
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2021, 10:41:45 AM »

Safe R
Logged
THG
TheTarHeelGent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,687
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2021, 11:58:41 AM »

What a laughable poll. Is this the same one with a D+3 sample?
Logged
Senator CentristRepublican
CentristRepublican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2022, 04:06:24 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.

He won't.

a.) 2022 is to be much redder than 2018
b.) Abbott is much more popular than Cruz
c.) Back in 2018, O'Rourke was young and fresh-faced; now, he's got 2018 and that quixotic 2020 presidential bid under his belt
d.) Related to c.), O'Rourke is much more polarizing because of his presidential race; I'd point especially to the AR15 line he made (TX loves its guns; even Democrats there like them)
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,851
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2022, 04:44:11 PM »

Add 6% for an incumbent seeking re-election to early polling' incumbent Senators and Governors usually show in campaigning why they first got elected. What I say about Whitmer in Michigan applies in Texas. O'Rourke wins here if he can show that Texas' treatment of COVID-19 is a scandal... but remember that the right-tending political culture in Texas is well entrenched. Maybe it isn'tas well entrenched as ten years ago, but it would have to erode very fast to allow the defeat of an incumbent Governor or Senator.   
Logged
Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,760
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2022, 04:58:35 PM »

This is believable if Beto manages to regain his 2018 magic, but otherwise I don't see it.

He won't.

a.) 2022 is to be much redder than 2018
b.) Abbott is much more popular than Cruz
c.) Back in 2018, O'Rourke was young and fresh-faced; now, he's got 2018 and that quixotic 2020 presidential bid under his belt
d.) Related to c.), O'Rourke is much more polarizing because of his presidential race; I'd point especially to the AR15 line he made (TX loves its guns; even Democrats there like them)
We shall see. You raise some good points.
Logged
Peace Out
progressive85
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,287
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2022, 05:51:23 AM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.
Logged
SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 60,742
Jamaica


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2022, 04:50:07 PM »

This was a November poll nice try Beto is down 15 pts
Logged
Unelectable Bystander
Rookie
**
Posts: 48
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2022, 09:35:16 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular
Logged
Peace Out
progressive85
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,287
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2022, 09:38:52 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!
Logged
Unelectable Bystander
Rookie
**
Posts: 48
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2022, 09:41:44 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

Thatís a good question and Iím curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents
Logged
Peace Out
progressive85
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,287
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2022, 10:49:20 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

Thatís a good question and Iím curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,845
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2022, 10:50:12 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

Thatís a good question and Iím curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.

Texas doesn't have gubernatorial term limits.
Logged
Peace Out
progressive85
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,287
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2022, 10:50:58 PM »

Never understood what the appeal of Abbott can be.  He ain't moderate, he ain't that popular.  Is it just because he's the Republican in a state that we're supposed to believe is Republican?  Oh Texas, what a huge state to just give up on... I swear it, O'Rourke's monstrous showing in '18 and the huge swing leftwards in '20 were not aberrations.  TX is destined to become the Big Chalupa.  Just one day... not today.

He is popular becauseÖevery poll/election shows him having a mandate from a majority of Texans? Lol itís not some crazy conspiracy to convince people heís popular

I don't get why he's that popular.  I seriously think there must be a wide swath of Texans that have never even heard of the guy.  He just doesn't seem like a dude that would be broadly appealing.... and maybe he's the least radical of the nutty row officers in Texas but that ain't sayin much!

Thatís a good question and Iím curious if anybody knows the answer to this. He seems to be one of the few republicans who can have a fairly strong conservative voting record and not be punished among independents

Texas indies must be more conservative leaners than PA indies are.  Interestingly, Texas has only had 2 Governors in the past 20 years.  For a big state, that's a consistent incumbency.

Texas doesn't have gubernatorial term limits.
Should it?
Logged
Hollywood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,133
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2022, 10:55:33 PM »

Abbott is winning the state by 15-18 points.  I guarantee he's already above 55% in the state.  The Poll over-sample Democrats by 19 point, and failed to properly adjust.  https://www.txhpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/TxHPF-2022gubernatorialelection.pdf

At this point, every Democrat is just putting out false information.  Articles claim that this pollster is unbiased even though they were commission by a Political Action Group camouflaged as charities like the Clinton Foundation.  This is another case of Multinational Corporations influencing elections by cleaning their money with funds used to for actual charitable purposes. 

Abbot is going to win by huge margins just like DeSantis. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 14 queries.