Just because Whitmer's opponents may be more vocal than Evers's doesn’t mean that the GOP base is less energized in WI than in MI or particularly tolerant of Evers (who is more constrained by the Court than Whitmer but of course just as partisan as her), and just because Wolf, whose approval numbers have been even worse than Whitmer's in recent polling, can’t run again in 2022, doesn’t mean the GOP base in PA is less energized than in MI or that the issues driving down Whitmer's/Wolf's popularity won’t hurt Shapiro's prospects. I expect all three states to have very similar results in the end, with no race considerably more likely to flip than the other two. Republicans are slightly to moderately favored in all three states but it’s not that hard to see Democrats very narrowly holding one of them.
Is anyone honestly saying that Evers is less vulnerable than Whitmer? The more prevailing wisdom here seems to be that Evers is DOA while Whitmer's race is a Toss-Up. My point is that I expect Republicans to win both races by less than 5%, and while Whitmer might do a point or two better than Evers, I don't see the two races going that differently.
Where is the poll that has Evers losing you keep saying that WI is Lean R but there isn't any evidence of polls
The whole country is lean R. I can extrapolate from Marquette Poll in early November with the information provided by other polls. The numbers tightened to D +4% in early November, but Marquette's method was just like polls that got smoke by Trafalgar.
