SHOCKER: Warner not running in 2008

[Frodo]

Count your blessings -you Republicans have just escaped a bullet...

[Raoul Takemoto]

Please, Dems - I beg you - I beseech you - do not let Killary get the nomination! Go for Bayh, Feingold, Richardson, Clark, Edwards - but do not let her get the nomination!  It's certain death!

[Erc]

There is, of course, no reason to believe he will change his mind later, as this is about as official as you can get.

That said,

"I leave shortly to go to Iowa to support folks running for state and congressional office. Hope they are still excited to see me."

Probably a prior committment / general campaigning...but it does give one a bit of pause.

But yeah.   Hillary gets the nomination, and barring unforseen business in the Republican primary, loses in the general.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You really think Feingold or Clark would be better?

Clark was one of the worst stump speakers I've heard, Feingold is even further left than Hillary... plus he has a few other hurdles.

[Raoul Takemoto]

I think Feingold and Clark would be less polarizing than Hillary.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That's the thing... polarising.

Bush was polarising... and won. Feingold would certianly be as polarising, if not more so than Hillary. I doubt Clark would get past March 2008.

The issue for me is, Hillary's disapprovals are about as high as they can get - she's been the Republicans favourite target for 14 years, and she still manages to get away with even favourable/unfavourables. Feingold, Clark etc etc have not been put through the public flogging - so they're really unknown quanitities.

Edwards... he definitely has a shot.

My ideal tickets.
Clinton/Richardson
Gore/Bayh
Gore/Richardson
Edwards/Richarson

[7,052,770]

Shocking.  Gore/Warner, though, that would be an awesome ticket.

[Raoul Takemoto]

Gore/Richardson is a ticket I could support.

I would really love to see Richardson at either end of the ticket in 2008. If he wins a big re-election next month, he will surely be on most everyone's short list of candidates. I guess after Warner, he would be my second choice. Baggage - he's already gone through that.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Great news for those of us in the GOP.

[Colin]

Well from a partisan perspective this helps the GOP massively as it makes the two most likely candidates Hillary Clinton and Al Gore, both massively divisive figures who would be much easier to beat than the charismatic centrist Warner.

As for Democrats you lost one of your best shots for the White House in 2008. Not saying only but best. The Democratic Party could win with Gore or Clinton or whoever but with Warner it would have been much easier, IMHO.

Personally I believe that this was either because of some skeleton that Warner has in his closet, which I believe is unlikely, or some back-room manuevering by Clinton and her team. I'm guessing some sort of high-level position promise or even a VP nod. If that is the case that would rule out a Richardson run as well since I've always considered him to be very close to the Clintons and would almost assuredly stay out of the race if Hillary offers him some small incentive.

[Alcon]

Damn it.

[TomC]

Not good. Not good at all.

Though, not sure if anyone's said this already- but it's good for Edwards, whom I like a lot- even more than Warner, but I just had more faith in Warner as candidate and nominee. Is it good for Bayh? Probably so, but he's still a pretty dull backbencher. Edwards can appeal to some moderates, but more importantly, he's actually the outsider of the bunch now.

[auburntiger]

Not good. Not good at all.

Though, not sure if anyone's said this already- but it's good for Edwards, whom I like a lot- even more than Warner, but I just had more faith in Warner as candidate and nominee. Is it good for Bayh? Probably so, but he's still a pretty dull backbencher. Edwards can appeal to some moderates, but more importantly, he's actually the outsider of the bunch now.

If Edwards runs and gets the Dem nomination, can he carry NC?

[© tweed]

Not good. Not good at all.

Though, not sure if anyone's said this already- but it's good for Edwards, whom I like a lot- even more than Warner, but I just had more faith in Warner as candidate and nominee. Is it good for Bayh? Probably so, but he's still a pretty dull backbencher. Edwards can appeal to some moderates, but more importantly, he's actually the outsider of the bunch now.

If Edwards runs and gets the Dem nomination, can he carry NC?

Not unless the Republicans nominate Mark Foley.

[The Dowager Mod]

Running for president these days involves a lot of abuse and hate, I don't blame him for wanting to spare his family that stuff.

[Soaring Eagle]

That's a shame. He would have been a great candidate. But I'm glad he's happy.

I'm going to endorse John Edwards now.

[Keystone Phil]

He's one of the few Dems I would have seriously considered voting for so this is, in a way, a disappointing story. However, I am more excited by this news because one of the potential heavyweights is gone (though I still doubt he would have gotten the nomination).

[Defarge]

the thing is, just the other day Warner was campaigning with Governon Lynch in NH and promising to help more.  Something happened very recently that forced Warner out.

Something fishy....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - my bet is someone found out something.

A person like that wouldn't back out of a good shot at the Dem nomination simply because someone offered him a cushy job... especially this early.

A VERY big skeleton.

[auburntiger]

I definitely think the Clinton's had something to do with this. Warner was definitely one Dem I would consider voting for.

BTW, How bad do y'all think Rudy would kill hillary in the general!?!? My map:

370-168 Rudy
Ironically, Hillary Clinton loses electorally by the same margin Bill Clinton beat George Bush in '92.

Since Rudy will have to move the right a great deal during the primary, he'll lose liberal WA, CA, DE, NY, and ME, but I definitely think he can win NJ, PA, and NH.

I think with the South and the religious right, it'll be "hold your nose, and vote for Rudy"

[Erc]

It can't be a VP slot offer.

And if it is, Warner's an idiot for taking it...because, come summer of 2008 no-one will remember or care about backroom deals made two years earlier.

[Reaganfan]

This all kind of began in 2005 as a "Draft Warner '08" type of movement, and I think he began to catch on. Similar to the Bill Owens type in 2004, and the Mark Sanford hype in 2005.

[skybridge]

And if it is, Warner's an idiot for taking it...because, come summer of 2008 no-one will remember or care about backroom deals made two years earlier.

Hahaha. There'll always be someone to expose whatever dirt ANY public person may have sullied themselves with. It depends more on which potential scandals people and the media in particular decide to make a big deal of.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Warner thought he could win - he wouldn't give a toss what Hillary offered him.

The ONLY reason to drop out SO early is make sure no one goes digging - there's a skeleton in there... I know it.

Remember Fred Picker in "Primary Colors"?

I love the melodramatic demonisation of the Clintons - it's like watching Springer. Makes me more determined to support her with such hyper-emotional opposition.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If Warner thought he could win - he wouldn't give a toss what Hillary offered him.

The ONLY reason to drop out SO early is make sure no one goes digging - there's a skeleton in there... I know it.

Remember Fred Picker in "Primary Colors"?

Dont' know why ya'll can't simply take him at his word:  He doesn't want to give up his family life.