Yet another poll from this Indiana battleground District, which keeps me
relatively happy
RT Strategies/CD of 989 validated respondents conducted October 8-10 has Chocola (R) 46% / Donnelly (D) 50% - a Donnelly lead of 4
This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.07%
It's not good for Donnelly when you consider the previous RT Strategies/CD poll in this District which had him leading 52% to 40% [refer to Hawk's Indiana Watch Thread for more on that and this poll]
Nevertheless, there are factors which might have a) overestimated support for Donnelly in the first poll and b) underestimated support for Donnelly in this poll
The first poll had a base of 35% Ind, 34% Rep and 31% Dem. Furthermore, Bush had a positive approval rating of 35% and a negative approval rating of 56%. Democrats, at 7.4, had a higher motivation index than Republicans, at 6.8
This poll has a base of 41% Rep, 32% Dem and 27% Ind. Furthermore, Bush now has a positive approval rating of 44% and a negative approval rating of 46% - quite a turnaround. Republicans, at 7.6, now have a higher motivation index than Democrats, who are stuck on 7.4
So make what you will of all that
. Taking all polls into consideration, Donnelly remains the favorite
Dave