VA-GOV (WaPo-Schar): McAuliffe +1

[BigSerg]

This is a rather sharp contrast to that Fox News poll. Still, it's only a +1 for McAuliffe so it's not all great for him.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454092950741340163?s=20

[Matty]

If mcauliffe wins by 1, my prediction is that people like Non Swing Voter will strut around like victors while in reality such a margin would totally demolish credibility of a lot of posters who have spent months insisting this was a safe D race

[Pollster]

Fascinating to see Ayala and Herring both at 50 and outperforming McAuliffe on the margins.

A result like this would surely spur discussion about McAuliffe being weak/Youngkin being strong, and certainly also the difficult optics of two GOP candidates of color struggling while the white man overperforms.

There's also the oddity that most VA off-year races feature generally coordinated campaigns among the three statewide candidates. McAuliffe has held to that (his yard signs and mailers all say McAuliffe/Ayala/Herring) and the Northam and Gillespie campaigns did the same in 2017. Youngkin's campaign for the most part has gone it entirely alone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If mcauliffe wins by 1, my prediction is that people like Non Swing Voter will strut around like victors while in reality such a margin would totally demolish credibility of a lot of posters who have spent months insisting this was a safe D race

It wasn't a safe D race, that much is to be said. It was at Likely for a while before Youngkin made his most recent gains, which pushed it to Tossup in one stroke because his biggest obstacle to getting a plurality over McAuliffe was the bigger Dem base in the state, and him actually cutting into that base has now became relatively massively likelier. The difference between a Likely D race that was hard for Youngkin to win and a Tossup race McAuliffe was quite vulnerable in was perhaps just a mere few points of margin.

[Chips]

If mcauliffe wins by 1, my prediction is that people like Non Swing Voter will strut around like victors while in reality such a margin would totally demolish credibility of a lot of posters who have spent months insisting this was a safe D race

If Mcauliffe wins by 1, Non Swing Voter will look like an idiot.

Hey now, Don't be rude. Non Swing Voter might certainly believe more in McAuliffe's chances than most, but it's not exactly like anyone else is that much more likely to be right or wrong than him.

[wbrocks67]

Wanted to see where T-Mac was falling short compared to Herring/Ayala.

Looks like biggest discrepancies come from Independents, but also Moderates.

However, looks like T-Mac also room to grow with nonwhites and blacks, as they're giving Rs similar level of support, but Dems range from 86% for T-Mac to 92% for Ayala. There's more Blanding/undecided voters in the GOV race than the two other races.

Interesting to note too that even among 18-39 voters, Ayala is at +16, while T-Mac is 10%.

Democrats
McAuliffe +96 (97-1)
Herring +94 (96-2)
Ayala +95 (97-2)

Independent
Youngkin +18 (56-38)
Miyares +9 (50-41)
Sears +10 (51-41)

Moderates
McAuliffe +15 (55-40)
Herring +25 (57-32)
Ayala +20 (55-35)

Males
Youngkin +17 (57-40)
Miyares +12 (53-41)
Sears +13 (54-41)

Females
McAuliffe +16 (56-40)
Herring +20 (57-37)
Ayala +18 (57-39)

Whites
Youngkin +16 (57-41)
Miyares +13 (54-41)
Sears +15 (55-40)

Nonwhites
McAuliffe +58 (76-16)
Herring +67 (80-13)
Ayala +67 (82-15)

Blacks
McAuliffe +79 (86-7)
Herring +86 (91-5)
Ayala +86 (92-6)

Age 18-39
McAuliffe +10 (52-42)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +16 (56-40)

White college +
McAuliffe +10 (54-44)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +9 (51-42)

Biden voters
McAuliffe +83 (89-6)
Herring +84 (90-6)
Ayala +85 (91-6)

[BigSerg]

Wanted to see where T-Mac was falling short compared to Herring/Ayala.

Looks like biggest discrepancies come from Independents, but also Moderates.

However, looks like T-Mac also room to grow with nonwhites and blacks, as they're giving Rs similar level of support, but Dems range from 86% for T-Mac to 92% for Ayala. There's more Blanding/undecided voters in the GOV race than the two other races.

Interesting to note too that even among 18-39 voters, Ayala is at +16, while T-Mac is 10%.

Democrats
McAuliffe +96 (97-1)
Herring +94 (96-2)
Ayala +95 (97-2)

Independent
Youngkin +18 (56-38)
Miyares +9 (50-41)
Sears +10 (51-41)

Moderates
McAuliffe +15 (55-40)
Herring +25 (57-32)
Ayala +20 (55-35)

Males
Youngkin +17 (57-40)
Miyares +12 (53-41)
Sears +13 (54-41)

Females
McAuliffe +16 (56-40)
Herring +20 (57-37)
Ayala +18 (57-39)

Whites
Youngkin +16 (57-41)
Miyares +13 (54-41)
Sears +15 (55-40)

Nonwhites
McAuliffe +58 (76-16)
Herring +67 (80-13)
Ayala +67 (82-15)

Blacks
McAuliffe +79 (86-7)
Herring +86 (91-5)
Ayala +86 (92-6)

Age 18-39
McAuliffe +10 (52-42)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +16 (56-40)

White college +
McAuliffe +10 (54-44)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +9 (51-42)

Biden voters
McAuliffe +83 (89-6)
Herring +84 (90-6)
Ayala +85 (91-6)

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1454091296587587590?s=20

[wbrocks67]

D+7 is not really unheard of.

2017's race was D+11 actually (D 41, R 30) while 2020, with Trump on the ballot was D+2.

So at the minimum you'd think it'd be at least D+2, while D+7 is in the middle of 2017 and 2020, which is also plausible.

What doesn't seem plausible is Fox's universe of R+4.

[Dan the Roman]

Wanted to see where T-Mac was falling short compared to Herring/Ayala.

Looks like biggest discrepancies come from Independents, but also Moderates.

However, looks like T-Mac also room to grow with nonwhites and blacks, as they're giving Rs similar level of support, but Dems range from 86% for T-Mac to 92% for Ayala. There's more Blanding/undecided voters in the GOV race than the two other races.

Interesting to note too that even among 18-39 voters, Ayala is at +16, while T-Mac is 10%.

Democrats
McAuliffe +96 (97-1)
Herring +94 (96-2)
Ayala +95 (97-2)

Independent
Youngkin +18 (56-38)
Miyares +9 (50-41)
Sears +10 (51-41)

Moderates
McAuliffe +15 (55-40)
Herring +25 (57-32)
Ayala +20 (55-35)

Males
Youngkin +17 (57-40)
Miyares +12 (53-41)
Sears +13 (54-41)

Females
McAuliffe +16 (56-40)
Herring +20 (57-37)
Ayala +18 (57-39)

Whites
Youngkin +16 (57-41)
Miyares +13 (54-41)
Sears +15 (55-40)

Nonwhites
McAuliffe +58 (76-16)
Herring +67 (80-13)
Ayala +67 (82-15)

Blacks
McAuliffe +79 (86-7)
Herring +86 (91-5)
Ayala +86 (92-6)

Age 18-39
McAuliffe +10 (52-42)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +16 (56-40)

White college +
McAuliffe +10 (54-44)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +9 (51-42)

Biden voters
McAuliffe +83 (89-6)
Herring +84 (90-6)
Ayala +85 (91-6)

No way Youngkin loses whites with college degrees by 10 and wins. Still whites.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a rather sharp contrast to that Fox News poll. Still, it's only a +1 for McAuliffe so it's not all great for him.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454092950741340163?s=20

What other poll has it Youngkin by 8

[wbrocks67]

Also interesting that Biden's approval here is -7, which is close to the -8 that Fox RV poll found. Makes me think again the Fox RV panel is much closer to reality than their LV.

[Matty]

wbrocks, can you at least admit you “critique” certain polls more than others?

I.e you are more credulous towards polls that are better for mcauliffe

[wbrocks67]

wbrocks, can you at least admit you “critique” certain polls more than others?

I.e you are more credulous towards polls that are better for mcauliffe

I don't think I was "critiquing" the Fox poll, just saying what everyone else has said - the LV model is a clear outlier but their RV poll actually lines up perfectly with what we've been seeing. That's fair.

I'm more inclined to believe this poll since Wapo/Schar has an impeccable track record in VA.

[Matty]

So you are starting to believe the polls that have it tied?

Because a week ago you were unskewing polls that had it tied.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox poll was garbage

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Xing]

This election can't be over soon enough.

[kwabbit]

If mcauliffe wins by 1, my prediction is that people like Non Swing Voter will strut around like victors while in reality such a margin would totally demolish credibility of a lot of posters who have spent months insisting this was a safe D race

I hope NSV can learn some kindness and humility in the event of a Youngkin victory. Regardless of his predictions, he could be less hostile.

[MT Treasurer]

If mcauliffe wins by 1, my prediction is that people like Non Swing Voter will strut around like victors while in reality such a margin would totally demolish credibility of a lot of posters who have spent months insisting this was a safe D race

I hope NSV can learn some kindness and humility in the event of a Youngkin victory. Regardless of his predictions, he could be less hostile.

No, because then his entire trolling wouldn’t generate the reactions he wants and, predictably yet unfortunately, gets.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yeah, I'm starting to think Youngkin might win this.

[2016]

Basically every Likely Voter Screen has Youngkin doing better than McAuliffe. If I were McAuliffe I would be very worried.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This election can't be over soon enough.

I always start feeling like that a week or two before Election Day.  Mental fatigue sets in.

[Xing]

This election can't be over soon enough.

I always start feeling like that a week or two before Election Day.  Mental fatigue sets in.

I feel that way during Presidential elections and midterms, but it doesn't happen that much with off-year elections. I guess Virginia is another one of those states that people just can't be reasonable about.

[Skunk]

I guess Virginia is another one of those states that people just can't be reasonable about.

Yeah between the smugness of NSV, the unhinged panic of Jimmie, and the freak out about critical race theory or whatever, this race has been mentally exhausting and the fact that the election hasn't happened yet and the main thread nearly has 100 pages certainly doesn't help.

[BigSerg]

I have always said (I still say) that McAuliffe will win by +2 Wbrocks67 is reasonable. Non Swing Voter is the only one trolling and being a jerk.