VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here to flip loads of people in NOVA and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this. 

[Skill and Chance]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

College educated-voters are, at best, barely less likely to hold stupid/extreme/whoever you put it stances (though the specifics vary wildly) on political issues, all while being probably harder to deprogram, because they have a diploma and that makes many of them think they are actually smarter.

High levels of education would make someone more likely to rationally hold the belief that they are smarter than their child's teacher.

Yeah, going all in for the school boards was idiotic, and he isn't getting a Trump save.  

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this.  

I promise you that this there were some credibility to the memes that Virginia only voted Democrat due to Trump and that Trump could have won Virginia in 2016 without Kaine on the ticket if he didn't pull out.

Tho both memes were over blown a bit tho.

Well, if Dems can't even count on the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA demographic in federal elections, we're getting the Republican New Deal in 3-7 years no matter what.  They would have mid 20th Century Dem style majorities in Congress.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

If Youngkin wins that county there is no hope of Democrats holding Congress next year.

I expect congress to flip anyway, but state races are radically different from federal.  This doesn't mean VA-10 is going to flip.  

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin wont win loudoun

I'm not sure he will, but it's pretty clearly within single digits. 

[Skill and Chance]

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You agree with me that this is not like KY or LA 2019 or MD 2018 right?

its literally going to be a gop sweep up and down the state ballot. That is what makes it different.

In a more polarized voting era, it makes me far less optimistic for VA Dems.

In 2019 KY and LA, we had a uniquely charismatic and well-established Democrat running against Republicans with little charisma or broad appeal (and in the case of KY, the R was downright despised). Even though the states were strongly pro-Trump and Republican, they also were voting for the governor's office in particular based more on the personalities of the actual candidates than nationalized politics (for what may well prove to be one of the last times). But in this case, a fairly popular ex-governor of a pretty blue state who in theory should have been easily the strongest candidate still might lose because of the D attached to his name and because the perfect storm of conditions (see: Loudoun County disaster going on right now, Biden's free falling approval ratings, Youngkin being fairly decent as far as R candidates go) might make it possible for him to lose.

So yeah, I'd agree that if McAuliffe loses, he's likely to drag down the rest of his party in a way that Bevin and Rispone did not. Because people won't really be voting based on their feelings towards the gubernatorial candidates alone, but rather how they feel about the political parties and the ideas they represent (as they perceive them at least) at large. Ironically, Obama trying to "help" T-Mac by campaigning for him and subsequently making gaffes about the Loudoun County disaster that led to direct, angry pushback from the parents of the victim might well have sunk T-Mac in the end. Especially if the race comes down to the wire.

yes..

and in this case Virginians are rejected Democrats as a whole up and down the ballot.

This is not 2009 at all.

For one, Tmac has an outside chance of winning but it would be an upset at this point. Back at that time it was not an unusual occurrence for state level voting to be dramatically different from national voting. While we still have differences today, and we likely always will to an extent, it is clear that they are more correlated.

If the GOP honestly does sweep VA in 2021, 2021 and 2023 elections... we may want to rethink the states ratings for presidential and senatorial elections.

Outer NOVA isn't going to turn around and elect a Republican trifecta in 2023 in a Youngkin "midterm" environment.  You are getting way ahead of yourself with this.