VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters
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  VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters
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Author Topic: VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters  (Read 4982 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #75 on: October 28, 2021, 06:36:57 PM »


I'm not sure he will, but it's pretty clearly within single digits. 
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #76 on: October 28, 2021, 06:37:42 PM »


If Youngkin wins that county there is no hope of Democrats holding Congress next year.

There never was hope, but it'll mean that it's going to be an even bigger than anticipated win for them, and a loss for our country and the concept of sanity.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #77 on: October 28, 2021, 06:39:37 PM »

We’re probably going to get a Miami-Dade-2020-type shock moment here with the first big vote dump out of Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince Willam vote if these LV numbers are even close to accurate, so be prepared and grab your chair/desk just in case.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #78 on: October 28, 2021, 06:40:46 PM »

Voters under 35 are also not passing their LV screen, either. The RV sample shows T-Mac +21 with that group, but in the LV group, there's not enough of them for the sample.

Do you have a link to the crosstabs?

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #79 on: October 28, 2021, 06:41:37 PM »

We’re probably going to get a Miami-Dade-2020-type shock moment here with the first big vote dump out of Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince Willam vote if these LV numbers are even close to accurate, so be prepared and grab your chair/desk just in case.

Relative to the state... nova will be quite dem.

I just think it will revert back to 2012 voting patterns.. and remain there.

Will make it very hard for dems to win VA statewide going forward. Just not impossible.

Fair enough?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #80 on: October 28, 2021, 06:44:01 PM »



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wbrocks67
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« Reply #81 on: October 28, 2021, 06:53:44 PM »

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up? Partisanship took control, but I think what was also prudent for pollsters at the time was how big the early/mail vote was. It was undeniable from the beginning that Democrats were voting in larger numbers than Republicans, and IIRC, pollsters got savvy to this and realized that a LV model where Rs are getting massive turnout wasn't happening.

Now, Virginia does not have registration by partisan so we can't see who is turning out. One wonders if things would be any different if we knew exactly who was turning out in the Early Vote. Could easily show that Rs *are* turning out, but it's an unknown that I think that was something that affected pollsters models in CA towards the end. If we didn't have a party ID for who those mail ballots were, it's possible pollsters might've continued to think Rs had a turnout edge.

Just food for thought and something to think about if T-Mac outperforms the polls
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Matty
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« Reply #82 on: October 28, 2021, 07:22:29 PM »

This is the problem for mcauliffe right here

Biden’s ratings in VA are awful

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TodayJunior
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« Reply #83 on: October 28, 2021, 07:41:09 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2021, 10:57:58 AM by TodayJunior »

Everyone do yourselves a favor...just breathe. This is one poll. Clearly an outlier.
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Horus
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« Reply #84 on: October 28, 2021, 08:12:53 PM »


You were also sure that Jill Schupp would beat Ann Wagner.
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Vosem
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« Reply #85 on: October 28, 2021, 08:22:10 PM »

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up? Partisanship took control, but I think what was also prudent for pollsters at the time was how big the early/mail vote was. It was undeniable from the beginning that Democrats were voting in larger numbers than Republicans, and IIRC, pollsters got savvy to this and realized that a LV model where Rs are getting massive turnout wasn't happening.

Now, Virginia does not have registration by partisan so we can't see who is turning out. One wonders if things would be any different if we knew exactly who was turning out in the Early Vote. Could easily show that Rs *are* turning out, but it's an unknown that I think that was something that affected pollsters models in CA towards the end. If we didn't have a party ID for who those mail ballots were, it's possible pollsters might've continued to think Rs had a turnout edge.

Just food for thought and something to think about if T-Mac outperforms the polls

The main difference between this race and CA-Gov seems to be that it only became clear at the end of that race that Republicans had basically nominated Larry Elder, whereas here it's been Youngkin vs. McAuliffe for months.

I imagine McAuliffe would be running away with this if a month before the election the GOP decided to swap out their nominee (which in CA had previously been a literal blank slate, and in VA is as close as you can get to that in human form) for Larry Elder.

Anyway, one poll, throw it in the average, etc.
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Chips
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« Reply #86 on: October 28, 2021, 08:27:34 PM »

Well, that be a curveball if I do say so myself.

I'm not convinced it will be this result but I do feel like this poll is the ultimate echo of the sentiment among many that McAuliffe is in trouble.
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Chips
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« Reply #87 on: October 28, 2021, 08:30:42 PM »

This poll put Youngkin ahead in the RCP average by the way.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #88 on: October 28, 2021, 08:50:12 PM »



WBrocks is spamming Cohn's replies as well ?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #89 on: October 28, 2021, 08:59:27 PM »

At least the race is being called now instead of worrying all weekend
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Chips
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« Reply #90 on: October 28, 2021, 09:01:12 PM »

At least the race is being called now instead of worrying all weekend

This poll doesn't automatically mean Youngkin wins, mind you.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #91 on: October 28, 2021, 10:11:43 PM »

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #92 on: October 28, 2021, 10:25:35 PM »

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You agree with me that this is not like KY or LA 2019 or MD 2018 right?

its literally going to be a gop sweep up and down the state ballot. That is what makes it different.

In a more polarized voting era, it makes me far less optimistic for VA Dems.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #93 on: October 28, 2021, 11:19:59 PM »

Toss-up to Lean R at this point.

Yes, 48 hours ago I was mocking anyone who thought Youngkin could win. Take this as an apology and full retraction.

I certainly think this is an outlier and don't expect Youngkin to win by THIS much. But if you put a gun to my head now and asked me to predict the most likely result, it would probably be a narrow Youngkin victory. Between this and other polls that have come out lately, the momentum is CLEARLY on Youngkin's side. Even if the polls are off about as much as 2017, even if their likely voter screens are significantly miscalculated as I suspect, this will be a VERY close election and tough win for McAuliffe at best. And my gut now tells me Youngkin is in fact slightly more likely to win. I mean, even the RV numbers here still had Youngkin up 1.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #94 on: October 28, 2021, 11:31:25 PM »


You do realize this is a Fox poll
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #95 on: October 28, 2021, 11:32:02 PM »

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You agree with me that this is not like KY or LA 2019 or MD 2018 right?

its literally going to be a gop sweep up and down the state ballot. That is what makes it different.

In a more polarized voting era, it makes me far less optimistic for VA Dems.

In 2019 KY and LA, we had a uniquely charismatic and well-established Democrat running against Republicans with little charisma or broad appeal (and in the case of KY, the R was downright despised). Even though the states were strongly pro-Trump and Republican, they also were voting for the governor's office in particular based more on the personalities of the actual candidates than nationalized politics (for what may well prove to be one of the last times). But in this case, a fairly popular ex-governor of a pretty blue state who in theory should have been easily the strongest candidate still might lose because of the D attached to his name and because the perfect storm of conditions (see: Loudoun County disaster going on right now, Biden's free falling approval ratings, Youngkin being fairly decent as far as R candidates go) might make it possible for him to lose.

So yeah, I'd agree that if McAuliffe loses, he's likely to drag down the rest of his party in a way that Bevin and Rispone did not. Because people won't really be voting based on their feelings towards the gubernatorial candidates alone, but rather how they feel about the political parties and the ideas they represent (as they perceive them at least) at large. Ironically, Obama trying to "help" T-Mac by campaigning for him and subsequently making gaffes about the Loudoun County disaster that led to direct, angry pushback from the parents of the victim might well have sunk T-Mac in the end. Especially if the race comes down to the wire.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #96 on: October 28, 2021, 11:32:35 PM »


You do realize Fox polls have a quite good reputation, regardless of the reputation of Fox News as a whole?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #97 on: October 28, 2021, 11:43:49 PM »

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You agree with me that this is not like KY or LA 2019 or MD 2018 right?

its literally going to be a gop sweep up and down the state ballot. That is what makes it different.

In a more polarized voting era, it makes me far less optimistic for VA Dems.

In 2019 KY and LA, we had a uniquely charismatic and well-established Democrat running against Republicans with little charisma or broad appeal (and in the case of KY, the R was downright despised). Even though the states were strongly pro-Trump and Republican, they also were voting for the governor's office in particular based more on the personalities of the actual candidates than nationalized politics (for what may well prove to be one of the last times). But in this case, a fairly popular ex-governor of a pretty blue state who in theory should have been easily the strongest candidate still might lose because of the D attached to his name and because the perfect storm of conditions (see: Loudoun County disaster going on right now, Biden's free falling approval ratings, Youngkin being fairly decent as far as R candidates go) might make it possible for him to lose.

So yeah, I'd agree that if McAuliffe loses, he's likely to drag down the rest of his party in a way that Bevin and Rispone did not. Because people won't really be voting based on their feelings towards the gubernatorial candidates alone, but rather how they feel about the political parties and the ideas they represent (as they perceive them at least) at large. Ironically, Obama trying to "help" T-Mac by campaigning for him and subsequently making gaffes about the Loudoun County disaster that led to direct, angry pushback from the parents of the victim might well have sunk T-Mac in the end. Especially if the race comes down to the wire.

yes..

and in this case Virginians are rejected Democrats as a whole up and down the ballot.

This is not 2009 at all.

For one, Tmac has an outside chance of winning but it would be an upset at this point. Back at that time it was not an unusual occurrence for state level voting to be dramatically different from national voting. While we still have differences today, and we likely always will to an extent, it is clear that they are more correlated.

If the GOP honestly does sweep VA in 2021, 2021 and 2023 elections... we may want to rethink the states ratings for presidential and senatorial elections.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #98 on: October 29, 2021, 07:36:12 AM »

I've tried to tell people that Fox polls suck. They're all over the place and have no consistency, but generally overestimate Democrats (this is an exception).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #99 on: October 29, 2021, 07:47:46 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2021, 07:52:03 AM by Skill and Chance »

ngl, whether McAuliffe wins by 1 or loses by 1, it's not really going to make me feel a whole different about 2022.

For about as long as this forum has existed, we've been treated to one administration after another who were put into power and then subsequently stripped of power across the country by an electorate that can't or won't make up its mind about what it wants. It would be shocking to me if that wasn't happening again now. It's just what we do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You agree with me that this is not like KY or LA 2019 or MD 2018 right?

its literally going to be a gop sweep up and down the state ballot. That is what makes it different.

In a more polarized voting era, it makes me far less optimistic for VA Dems.

In 2019 KY and LA, we had a uniquely charismatic and well-established Democrat running against Republicans with little charisma or broad appeal (and in the case of KY, the R was downright despised). Even though the states were strongly pro-Trump and Republican, they also were voting for the governor's office in particular based more on the personalities of the actual candidates than nationalized politics (for what may well prove to be one of the last times). But in this case, a fairly popular ex-governor of a pretty blue state who in theory should have been easily the strongest candidate still might lose because of the D attached to his name and because the perfect storm of conditions (see: Loudoun County disaster going on right now, Biden's free falling approval ratings, Youngkin being fairly decent as far as R candidates go) might make it possible for him to lose.

So yeah, I'd agree that if McAuliffe loses, he's likely to drag down the rest of his party in a way that Bevin and Rispone did not. Because people won't really be voting based on their feelings towards the gubernatorial candidates alone, but rather how they feel about the political parties and the ideas they represent (as they perceive them at least) at large. Ironically, Obama trying to "help" T-Mac by campaigning for him and subsequently making gaffes about the Loudoun County disaster that led to direct, angry pushback from the parents of the victim might well have sunk T-Mac in the end. Especially if the race comes down to the wire.

yes..

and in this case Virginians are rejected Democrats as a whole up and down the ballot.

This is not 2009 at all.

For one, Tmac has an outside chance of winning but it would be an upset at this point. Back at that time it was not an unusual occurrence for state level voting to be dramatically different from national voting. While we still have differences today, and we likely always will to an extent, it is clear that they are more correlated.

If the GOP honestly does sweep VA in 2021, 2021 and 2023 elections... we may want to rethink the states ratings for presidential and senatorial elections.

Outer NOVA isn't going to turn around and elect a Republican trifecta in 2023 in a Youngkin "midterm" environment.  You are getting way ahead of yourself with this.
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