VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the enduring Atlas Talk Elections traditions is overreaction to a single poll.

[BigSerg]

Oh yes... Cultural wars
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1453857652895801349?s=20

[Pollster]

This is the 2021 equivalent of either the final 2020 Selzer poll or that poll that had Biden up 17 in Wisconsin. Your choice!

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

[Senator Incitatus]

Don't expect this margin by any stretch but this race is very reminiscent of NJ 2009 minus Daggett.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This poll is, without a doubt, the most genuinely scary thing I've seen this Halloween season.

It's probably an outlier, there is no way Youngkin wins by that much, but it still suggests that he actually can win after all. And if he does, the Democratic Party might as well become as irrelevant as the British Labour Party, because educated suburbanites clearly aren't the Democratic loyalists that the party needs them to be as a reliable part of their coalition. They may hate Trump, but their education doesn't necessarily make them smart because they clearly care more about personality than about actual policies or the future of our democracy. They only hated Trump because they found him obnoxious, but give them someone policy-wise who is similar but much more subdued and they'll consider voting for him and following the political patterns that are so frustratingly deterministic in our country.

I am literally sick to my stomach, and I think we all need to apologize to Jimmie.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here to flip loads of people in NOVA and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this. 

[Senator Incitatus]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

College educated-voters are, at best, barely less likely to hold stupid/extreme/whoever you put it stances (though the specifics vary wildly) on political issues, all while being probably harder to deprogram, because they have a diploma and that makes many of them think they are actually smarter.

High levels of education would make someone more likely to rationally hold the belief that they are smarter than their child's teacher.

[MT Treasurer]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

a 53-45 poll is very different from a 41-33 one

Much less when it’s from a completely different pollster. FOX had Northam ahead by 5 (LV) and 4 (RV) the day before the election with a large number of undecideds (7% / 9%). Not at all comparable to this poll.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

wbrocks made 9 unskewing posts in this thread so far, hehe.

Average it. Then polls (which might be wrong) are showing a toss-up race with Youngkin's having momentum.

[Gracile]

I don't think an 8 point GOP win is possible, but yeah, this is clearly a bad sign for McAuliffe.

[Skill and Chance]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

College educated-voters are, at best, barely less likely to hold stupid/extreme/whoever you put it stances (though the specifics vary wildly) on political issues, all while being probably harder to deprogram, because they have a diploma and that makes many of them think they are actually smarter.

High levels of education would make someone more likely to rationally hold the belief that they are smarter than their child's teacher.

Yeah, going all in for the school boards was idiotic, and he isn't getting a Trump save.  

[jamestroll]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this.  

I promise you that this there were some credibility to the memes that Virginia only voted Democrat due to Trump and that Trump could have won Virginia in 2016 without Kaine on the ticket if he didn't pull out.

Tho both memes were over blown a bit tho.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

College educated-voters are, at best, barely less likely to hold stupid/extreme/whoever you put it stances (though the specifics vary wildly) on political issues, all while being probably harder to deprogram, because they have a diploma and that makes many of them think they are actually smarter.

High levels of education would make someone more likely to rationally hold the belief that they are smarter than their child's teacher.

I meant smarter when it comes to politics.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait… they sampled a Trump +1 electorate in a state that went to Biden by 10? What kind of polling method is that?

[Skill and Chance]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this.  

I promise you that this there were some credibility to the memes that Virginia only voted Democrat due to Trump and that Trump could have won Virginia in 2016 without Kaine on the ticket if he didn't pull out.

Tho both memes were over blown a bit tho.

Well, if Dems can't even count on the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA demographic in federal elections, we're getting the Republican New Deal in 3-7 years no matter what.  They would have mid 20th Century Dem style majorities in Congress.

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

I can’t wait for the overreactions Wednesday morning if Younking wins Loudan county

[Progressive Pessimist]

Called it earlier today.  This is a KY-GOV 2015 style late collapse by the establishment candidate.

Only difference is I think Va will be quite Republican going forward.

2013 and 2012 nova margin cant counter rest of state anymore
 

Nah, there's something very specific going on here and if anything, rural turnout is down.  This is like saying LA would be a blue state because of JBE's 2015 landslide over Vitter.

Trump isn't winning VA in 2024 just because of this.  

I promise you that this there were some credibility to the memes that Virginia only voted Democrat due to Trump and that Trump could have won Virginia in 2016 without Kaine on the ticket if he didn't pull out.

Tho both memes were over blown a bit tho.

Well, if Dems can't even count on the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA demographic in federal elections, we're getting the Republican New Deal in 3-7 years no matter what.  They would have mid 20th Century Dem style majorities in Congress.

Like I said in my above post, the British Labour Party is soon going to look more successful. And we don't even have the luxury to blame the Scottish National Party.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

If Youngkin wins that county there is no hope of Democrats holding Congress next year.

[kwabbit]

Voters under 35 are also not passing their LV screen, either. The RV sample shows T-Mac +21 with that group, but in the LV group, there's not enough of them for the sample.

Do you have a link to the crosstabs?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

If Youngkin wins that county there is no hope of Democrats holding Congress next year.

I expect congress to flip anyway, but state races are radically different from federal.  This doesn't mean VA-10 is going to flip.  

[jamestroll]

Youngkin wont win loudoun

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1453853594789285888?s=20