How would you grade Phil Murphy's campaign?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:52:28 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  How would you grade Phil Murphy's campaign?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: How would you grade Phil Murphy's campaign?
#1
A+
 
#2
A
 
#3
A-
 
#4
B+
 
#5
B
 
#6
B-
 
#7
C+
 
#8
C
 
#9
C-
 
#10
D+
 
#11
D
 
#12
D-
 
#13
F+
 
#14
F
 
#15
F-
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: How would you grade Phil Murphy's campaign?  (Read 1588 times)
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 28, 2021, 03:49:53 PM »

I'd give his campaign a D. He made what should have been a D + 12 race, competitive enough for Obama to do a rally for him, with a fake accent, trying to pander to black voters, however Murphy still ran a campaign unlike T-Mac
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,553
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2021, 06:20:55 PM »

I actually don't think it's been that terrible. And Obama showing up is hardly desperation to me.

Still, he had let Ciatarelli dominate the airwaves far more than one would think, especially with Murphy having a personal fortune to pull from to fund his campaign. He has caught up quite a bit in these closing days and is finally running on his own accomplishments instead of abortion, which his ads I've seen the most have focused on.

I'll give him a B-.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2021, 09:10:50 PM »

Obama showed up in CA too.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,807
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2021, 12:21:20 PM »

B+ because he will win fairly easily without even really trying.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2021, 12:24:41 PM »

B+ because he will win fairly easily without even really trying.

Him winning fairly easily has nothing to do with the quality of his campaign, lol. In fact, you kind of disproved your own point ("without even really trying").
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,807
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2021, 03:16:12 PM »

B+ because he will win fairly easily without even really trying.

Him winning fairly easily has nothing to do with the quality of his campaign, lol. In fact, you kind of disproved your own point ("without even really trying").

How else do you determine the quality of a campaign other than the margin of victory/defeat?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2021, 03:26:19 PM »

C? Doesn't make much of a difference, since the question is whether he'll win by an underwhelming or fairly normal margin.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2021, 03:45:10 PM »

C
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2021, 06:58:34 PM »

C.

Should have won by larger margin against a mediocre candidate.
Logged
Utah Neolib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,948
Antarctica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2021, 09:48:41 PM »

F+. He didn’t lose, but he almost lost in literal New Jersey.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2021, 10:03:24 PM »

F+. He didn’t lose, but he almost lost in literal New Jersey.

Is he a bad campaigner? Does he have a political future? President? U.S. Senator? Treasury secy. when Yellen retires?
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,751
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2021, 11:06:24 PM »

D. His campaign was pretty uninspired and he definitely didn't take Ciattarelli seriously enough.

I only would have give him an F if he had lost.
Logged
Utah Neolib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,948
Antarctica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2021, 11:31:48 PM »

F+. He didn’t lose, but he almost lost in literal New Jersey.

Is he a bad campaigner? Does he have a political future? President? U.S. Senator? Treasury secy. when Yellen retires?
I don’t see it. Possible future NJ Senator, but I really don’t think it’s particularly likely.
Logged
bayareabay
Rookie
**
Posts: 103
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2022, 01:35:34 AM »

The amount of attention the recall got was so unwarranted.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,791
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2022, 04:55:49 AM »
« Edited: January 29, 2022, 06:48:58 AM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

Rs think that D turnout is gonna to be exactly where it was in 21/ news flash no it's not younger voters in off yr elections that arent nationalized aren't enthusiastic, but 22 is a national election even though it's not Prez, we will have higher turnout than Rs and in 2018/ the last Midterm it was 46/43M D
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,502
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2022, 12:41:44 PM »

C+ because he won.

Murphy was caught a bit flat-footed, but he should not have been surprised at the closeness.  NJ is a more elastic state than many, and it has a suburban base that has become more liberal on social issues such as abortion over the years, but can still be mobilized by crime and tax issues.  The COVID-19 restrictions were a new factor that impacted the suburban base disproportionately.  Murphy wasn't really ready for that, either.

Tax and crime issues still motivate NJ's suburban voters.  People don't appreciate Bronz enough here; he's giving you a window into a world of the swing voters of NJ.  The Biden-Cicciarelli voters.  There were more of them than people thought would be.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2022, 01:11:00 PM »

C+ because he won.

Murphy was caught a bit flat-footed, but he should not have been surprised at the closeness.  NJ is a more elastic state than many, and it has a suburban base that has become more liberal on social issues such as abortion over the years, but can still be mobilized by crime and tax issues.  The COVID-19 restrictions were a new factor that impacted the suburban base disproportionately.  Murphy wasn't really ready for that, either.

Tax and crime issues still motivate NJ's suburban voters.  People don't appreciate Bronz enough here; he's giving you a window into a world of the swing voters of NJ.  The Biden-Cicciarelli voters.  There were more of them than people thought would be.

Thank you.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,389
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2022, 05:01:25 AM »

Tax and crime issues still motivate NJ's suburban voters.  People don't appreciate Bronz enough here; he's giving you a window into a world of the swing voters of NJ.  The Biden-Cicciarelli voters.  There were more of them than people thought would be.
How often does Bronz talk about taxes? As for crime, I don’t think Ciaterelli mentioned it.
Logged
W
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,300
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.71, S: -8.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2022, 12:35:43 PM »

D. His campaign could have been better, but this was a complete sleeper of a race.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2022, 02:14:14 AM »


B+ because he will win fairly easily without even really trying.

Him winning fairly easily has nothing to do with the quality of his campaign, lol. In fact, you kind of disproved your own point ("without even really trying").

How else do you determine the quality of a campaign other than the margin of victory/defeat?

This is terrible logic, frankly (and yes, I know this is a preelection post, but this comment is still not exactly true or correct as framed).

A Democrat is expected to win NJ by 15 points, so even a 10 point win (Murphy won by 3.2%, of course, but I know this is a pre-election post and I admittedly also thought NJ would go blue by more) would be a dissapointment. Andy Beshear 'only' won by 0.42% in 2019, so I guess he's a poor campaigner? What matters is the margin - but when controlled for the state's partisanship, and how well a campaign the opponent ran; just two of many examples of this applying:
1. Marsha Blackburn ran a good campaign because she won by about 10 points in a blue year - bad logic because TN is a solid red state; or you could say she ran a terrible campaign because TN voted for Trump by much more - also bad logic because Phil Bredesen, the opponent, was strong ... in reality Blackburn ran an average-ish campaign, nothing terrible but nothing exceptional
2. Joseph Cao ran a good campaign because he won in a blue year in a massively blue district - bad logic because the incumbent, Bill Jefferson, was extremely scandal-plagued and bogged down by scandal; or you could say he ran a terrible campaign because he won very narrowly - bad logic because the district's partisanship was and is ultra-blue ... in reality Cao ran a decent, maybe-a-little-above-aveage campaign, not bad at all but not really that great, either.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2022, 02:14:41 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2022, 02:18:00 AM by Senator CentristRepublican »

I give Murphy a C+ though I didn't watch his campaign very closely. 2021 was obviously a bad year for Democrats but I feel like Murphy could've still done a better campaign...one unspoken fact is that Murphy actually underperformed Biden more than McAuliffe did. This is not mentioned much and McAuliffe is blasted as being a worse campaigned because he lost and Murphy won - but NJ only voted 5.2 points to the left of VA in 2021 as compared to 5.8 in 2020, meaning that Murphy actually did worse than McAuliffe by over half a point. So if you're criticizing McAuliffe / praising Youngkin, it's in some ways more appropriate to criticize Murphy / praise Ciaterelli. In retrospect, and now that I confirmed that McAuliffe > Murphy, Murphy's probably more like a D+ than a C+...can't change my vote now though.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2022, 02:47:47 AM »

Just goes to show you how many people get influenced by what the results end up being, which are not at all how they would grade they would give pre-election when Murphy was supposed to win very easily.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 14 queries.