AZ-GOV 2022: Yee in
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  AZ-GOV 2022: Yee in
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #75 on: January 26, 2022, 10:47:31 PM »

Just for the record, Lake isn't even spreading real news: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/01/26/fact-check-wisconsin-didnt-vote-recall-bidens-electoral-votes/9231893002/

Republicans could really own goal this race, and they'd have no one to blame but themselves. Yee wouldn't have won by much, but she would've almost certainly won.

I surprised I'm saying this, but I really wonder if there's a chance that Democrats win the governorship and a Republican wins the Senate race.

It could happen, but both races are bound to be extremely close.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #76 on: January 26, 2022, 10:58:44 PM »

Really terrible candidates can indeed lose even in a wave environment favoring their party. Look at last year's County Executive race in Northampton, PA. The archetypical swing county in the archetypical swing state.

The Republican candidate in that race was a political neophyte named Steve Lynch. Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who threatened to send armed "strong men" to intimidate school boards. He lost by 12 points, but should have won comfortably based on the fundamentals. Candidate quality does matter, and I will live by that mantra forever.

Interestingly, I think that race may have been a window into an alternate universe where Amanda Chase was the nominee in VA.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #77 on: January 28, 2022, 05:08:33 PM »

Really terrible candidates can indeed lose even in a wave environment favoring their party. Look at last year's County Executive race in Northampton, PA. The archetypical swing county in the archetypical swing state.

The Republican candidate in that race was a political neophyte named Steve Lynch. Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who threatened to send armed "strong men" to intimidate school boards. He lost by 12 points, but should have won comfortably based on the fundamentals. Candidate quality does matter, and I will live by that mantra forever.

Interestingly, I think that race may have been a window into an alternate universe where Amanda Chase was the nominee in VA.

Between Kari Lake and Blake Masters, I'm getting 2010 Colorado deja vu from Arizona this year.

And it makes sense because like CO, the AZ GOP is so far to the right of the state and the AZ Dems are very disciplined and organized. I would not be surprised to see Kelly and certainly Hobbs inch by even while the Reps take AZ 6 and 2, give Stanton a good scare, and win dozens of House seats across the nation. In fact, it's what I am willing to wager will end up happening.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #78 on: January 29, 2022, 04:39:58 PM »

Really terrible candidates can indeed lose even in a wave environment favoring their party. Look at last year's County Executive race in Northampton, PA. The archetypical swing county in the archetypical swing state.

The Republican candidate in that race was a political neophyte named Steve Lynch. Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who threatened to send armed "strong men" to intimidate school boards. He lost by 12 points, but should have won comfortably based on the fundamentals. Candidate quality does matter, and I will live by that mantra forever.

Interestingly, I think that race may have been a window into an alternate universe where Amanda Chase was the nominee in VA.

Between Kari Lake and Blake Masters, I'm getting 2010 Colorado deja vu from Arizona this year.

And it makes sense because like CO, the AZ GOP is so far to the right of the state and the AZ Dems are very disciplined and organized. I would not be surprised to see Kelly and certainly Hobbs inch by even while the Reps take AZ 6 and 2, give Stanton a good scare, and win dozens of House seats across the nation. In fact, it's what I am willing to wager will end up happening.
Colorado was a much much bluer state though being Obama +9 while Arizona is only Biden+0.3, also I wouldn't really call the Dems disciplined after they just censured Sinema.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #79 on: January 31, 2022, 11:19:05 AM »

Kelly is at 50/47 even against Ducey so, D's can compete in thos Gov race
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #80 on: January 31, 2022, 01:18:23 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2022, 01:21:29 PM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

Just note that Biden Approvals aren't the end result, 34(/61 in OH and GA they're the Approvals he's at now, so as wave insurance it's the end result not what's happening now and I make generous maps because on Election night the predictions are closed I will be very mad if Stacy Abrams, Tim Ryan or Katie Hobbs win and I put a GOP win there, I know it's a mock prediction but just like Rs make NUT Maps D's should not be ashamed to make one

How is Biden at 34/61 Approvals in OH and the last poll had Josh Mandel up 44/40 the same with GA how is Biden at 34/61 and Warnock is down 47/44 those are silly approval numbers
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