Will the “stolen election” rhetoric hurt Trump’s turnout in 2024?

[Fuzzy Bear]

A Presidential Election is actually 51 separate elections.  Some states are more stealable than others.  Some key counties are more stealable than others.  Some states are more key to victory than others.

I am not convinced that Trump would have won in an honest election, but I have no doubt that there was election illegalities going on.  This was run like a covert operation; the slip-ups (e. g. the vote counting in Atlanta caught on camera after poll watchers left) are losses of cover in such an operation.  Ridiculous?  Elections have been stolen all the time, and the biggest gold mines for stolen votes are large population centers where one party is dominant. 

I'm not naive.  The first election campaign I worked on from beginning to end was stolen at the end.  I know this for a fact, as I was something of an insider once upon a time.  1,200 or so votes were "found" after my candidate told off his Party Chairman (not a wise thing to do). 

What is needed is stricter voter ID, extended voting hours, but minimizing mail-in ballots.  It is the mail-in ballots by which either side can best manipulate elections, especially with Ballot Harvesting.  It's not too much to ask people to show up in person with a valid ID in order to allow them to vote, especially when you have an extended period of early voting.  People are not wrong for not having confidence in their election boards.  I've known this since I was 18 years old.  That's a solvable problem, but the solutions put forth only make it worse.

[MarkD]

- snip -

I am not convinced that Trump would have won in an honest election, but I have no doubt that there was election illegalities going on.  This was run like a covert operation; the slip-ups (e. g. the vote counting in Atlanta caught on camera after poll watchers left) are losses of cover in such an operation.  Ridiculous? ...

- snip -

Do you agree with Trump himself that he was robbed of accurate election results in all 25 states that certified that Biden won? Do you agree with him that he "won every state," but for election illegalities? In this link below - Trump's phone call to Georgia Sec. of State Brad Raffensberger - listen in at about 7:15 (or to just read it in the transcript, search for the words "every state")
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/trump-brad-raffensperger-phone-call-transcript/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0pYhSezBfIQ6mjoWDjLgwVyAkE8fzjW5aOQUBsQ-84gmjnvMj80D9Gjl0
A few days after that, Trump came to Georgia in person to appear at a rally for the Senators Perdue and Loeffler, and he said again that he "won every state" in Election 2020. It's a long video, so just skip ahead to approximately 1:12:30.
https://thehill.com/video/campaign/532545-watch-live-trump-holds-rally-in-georgia-ahead-of-senate-runoffs?fbclid=IwAR0GfTmLS-Os0B9mqWfS-cZRNFahtDxBbzmm3uF_lOEt-fcp7_gyJsfyWy0

If Donald Trump was claims that he "won every state," but you think he was probably wrong to make that claim, what does that tell you about his mental state?

Besides all that, to address the OP, I think that, logically, the rhetoric of "stolen election" should depress voter turnout amongst Trump's base. After all, if you think the whole system was rigged to make sure Trump would lose, then why would you bother to participate in a system rigged to make sure your vote is made ineffective? But to assume that logic is to assume that most of Trump's base is made up of a sane, rational people who think logically, .... so, ....

[beaver2.0]

I think it's too soon to tell.  If he goes full-on "It was stolen and I 100%, without a doubt, won." that could hurt him.  If it's something a little softer, something like "It's possible there will be fraud and we should watch out." I don't think that would hurt him too much.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1453300690659446785
GOP Voters With Low Election Trust Are More Pumped for the Midterms Than Other Republicans
Findings suggest GOP leaders concerned that Trump’s 2020 rhetoric could cost them in 2022 might have it backward

Donald Trump sparked new alarm among Republican officials when he said the party base “will not be voting” in next year’s midterm elections unless the GOP addresses its fears about voting fraud in the 2020 presidential election, but a new Morning Consult/Politico poll suggests the former president’s insistence on elevating the issue is resonating with a highly motivated segment of the Republican electorate.

It's about 2022, but it should be highly correlated with 2024.

[Inmate Trump]

I doubt it will hurt turnout in 2024.

Even these morons know, deep down, that it's a bogus claim.  They simply lost last time.

[GregTheGreat657]

No. Recent American history very strongly suggests that claims that elections are stolen actually help base turnout. That is why they are becoming more common on both sides.

The leftward march from 2018 GA-GOV to 2020 GA presidential and senate elections could serve as solid evidence in favor of your argument

[BlueSwan]

No. The GQP is a personality cult. They will scream election fraud while simultaneously showing up in droves for their deity.