If the GOP loses control of TX...then what?

[sg0508]

If that happens, they are effectively locked out of the electoral college.  The trends are there, especially with the youth vote in the big cities skyrocketing and many moving from California. 

So, if TX becomes the next "going away" blue state like VA or CO, states that used to be reasonably and reliably red, then what happens?

[ElectionsGuy]

The GOP will keep fighting for Texas for many elections to come. This isn't like Virginia or Colorado, where they can afford to replace it with another state. If they lose Texas in one election, they still keep contesting it until they win again.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

They may lose a stranglehold on it short term but there are countervailing trends that could keep them competitive and winning elections there long term, even if they have to share power with Democrats. A lot of the people moving there are more Republican than the native population which I believe actually supported O'Rourke over Cruz (as Hispanics are now a large portion of that native group). As Hispanics continue to grow rapidly, that will make TX more competitive near term even as Hispanics trend R because Democrats still have a long way to fall among them. If Hispanics get to an even 50-50 between the parties, we could see a scenario the opposite of GA where Texas becomes an R leaning super elastic state with an electorate that isn't super racially/ethnically polarized.... like a Republican inverse of New Hampshire.

[Mr.Phips]

I think many underestimate how difficult it is going to be for Dems to get over the hump in Texas. If Hispanics in the RGV continue to trend Republican and there is even a little bit of highly educated white reversion in the suburbs, it gets much more difficult for Dems.

You also have to consider that it’s possible that when Texas finally flips, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are already gone for Dems.

[Agonized-Statism]

It won't be solid, just a swing state. So the object becomes fighting for Texas every election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Recency bias, TX was a swing state for many decades and didn't come to be seen as a "Republican State" until the 1990s.

If the path is blocked, the party will adjust to create a new "path of least resistance to the EC majority".

[OSR stands with Israel]

Recency bias, TX was a swing state for many decades and didn't come to be seen as a "Republican State" until the 1990s.

If the path is blocked, the party will adjust to create a new "path of least resistance to the EC majority".

That was at a time when California was a Republican state at the presidential level as it voted for the Republican candidate 9/10 times from 1952-1988.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Recency bias, TX was a swing state for many decades and didn't come to be seen as a "Republican State" until the 1990s.

If the path is blocked, the party will adjust to create a new "path of least resistance to the EC majority".

That was at a time when California was a Republican state at the presidential level as it voted for the Republican candidate 9/10 times from 1952-1988.

Again, the Party's adjust to recreate a path. The more Democratic the state, the more pronounced the adjustment, but it is typically the path of least resistance and the one that typically closest adheres to the base. Hence why the rust belt became an easier play than chasing after Colorado and Virginia.

[Devils30]

Recency bias, TX was a swing state for many decades and didn't come to be seen as a "Republican State" until the 1990s.

If the path is blocked, the party will adjust to create a new "path of least resistance to the EC majority".

That was at a time when California was a Republican state at the presidential level as it voted for the Republican candidate 9/10 times from 1952-1988.

Again, the Party's adjust to recreate a path. The more Democratic the state, the more pronounced the adjustment, but it is typically the path of least resistance and the one that typically closest adheres to the base. Hence why the rust belt became an easier play than chasing after Colorado and Virginia.

Yep...and you can argue the GOP already is adjusting in Texas judging by its improvement with Hispanics. It certainly adjusted in Florida in a near-perfect way.