NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11

[wbrocks67]

Just for fun, comparing this to the 2017 exits. This is the same thing we're seeing with the VA polls - Males surging towards R compared to 2017. Interested to see if it bares out.

Also it appears Murphy consolidating more Ds this time, while Ciatarelli consolidating less (as of now) than Guadagno did.

MEN
2017: D+15
2021: R+4

WOMEN
2017: D+12
2021: D+25

WHITES
2017: R+8
2021: R+9

BLACKS
2017: D+90
2021: D+77

DEMS
2017: D+87
2021: D+90

REPS
2017: R+85
2021: R+78

INDS
2017: D+4
2021: R+1

[wbrocks67]

It's really interesting that CA and NJ might end up looking nearly identical to their 2017/2018 numbers but VA is the one that will be the farthest off. Or will it?

[wbrocks67]

I would point out that Biden won New Jersey by +16 and that Democrats performing 5 points worse than they did last year would be a disaster, but it's also worth considering that off-years have much lower turnout, and Biden's approvals could be much higher by '22 and '24. Not worth dooming yet.

Well, that and I haven't trusted polling since November 8, 2016.

Murphy won by +13.5 in 2017 during the Trump presidency, so +11 would actually be pretty good for a Dem Gov during a Biden midterm.