I just recently accepted Murphy+9 as the potential result, and then this, somewhat more in line with what I thought about the race before recently comes. Thanks a lot! But still 9 to 11 points is reasonable. 11 especially is about what Menendez received in 2018 as an unpopular incumbent, so perhaps that is the Democratic floor here. I just think that turnout could make the difference to Ciatarelli's benefit. It certainly won't be a 2018 electorate. So I'm still going to say Murphy+9, also to keep my expectations low so that there is the possibility of me being more impressed if Murphy exceeds them.
I would point out that Biden won New Jersey by +16 and that Democrats performing 5 points worse than they did last year would be a disaster, but it's also worth considering that off-years have much lower turnout, and Biden's approvals could be much higher by '22 and '24. Not worth dooming yet.
Well, that and I haven't trusted polling since November 8, 2016. 
Our off-year elections almost always have very weak turnout, and typically that helps GOP candidates.
Don't forget that a Democrat has never been re-elected Governor here since the late 1970's. So that also complicates how this election can be deciphered as relating to 2022.
