NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11 (user search)
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  NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11  (Read 4258 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« on: October 27, 2021, 10:51:13 AM »

Very reassuring to Murphy. All eyes on Virginia now.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2021, 09:14:27 PM »

This is clearly a very accurate poll from a reputable and accurate pollster that should not be questioned.  But Monmouth's poll in Virginia shouldn't be believed at all because some crosstab finding and 2017.

In all fairness, Monmouth was spot on in NJ in 2017 (final poll: Murphy +14, 53-39; election result: Murphy +14, 56-42) but off in VA (final poll: Northam +2, 47-45; election result: Northam +9, 54-45), but I agree with you that all polls should be treated with caution regardless of whether we like the result or not or find it "credible" or not.

Monmouth has been spot-on in NJ since around 2012 and extremely solid going back to 2005. Their reputation there is on par with Selzer's.

RaceMonmouthActual
2005-GOVD+9D+10.4
2006-SEND+3D+9.0
2008-PRESD+21D+25.5
2008-SEND+16D+14.0
2009-GOVD+2R+3.6
2012-PRESD+15*D+17.8
2012-SEND+15*D+19.5
2013-SEND+10D+10.9
2013-GOVR+20R+22.1
2014-SEND+14D+10.9
2017-GOVD+14D+13.5
2018-SEND+9D+11.2
2020-PRESD+16*D+15.9
2020-SEND+23*D+16.3

Asterisks are for polls before October 1.

Their only real misses were (a) thinking the 2006 Senate race would be much closer, which I think pretty much everyone in the country did and could have been due to underpolling the Hispanic vote in the only race it ever really mattered in and (b) the 2009 miss, which can't be explained but wasn't really that bad.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2021, 05:25:42 PM »

Murray has now publicly apologized for this poll and hinted at an end to the Monmouth poll and the entire polling industry:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/polling/murray-apologizes-for-inaccurate-monmouth-polling/

Quote
“I owe an apology to Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign – and to Phil Murphy’s campaign for that matter – because inaccurate public polling can have an impact on fundraising and voter mobilization efforts,” Murray wrote. “But most of all I owe an apology to the voters of New Jersey for information that was at the very least misleading.”

The final Monmouth poll of the race, released last Wednesday, found Murphy with an 11-point lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli. Two earlier polls from September and August gave Murphy 13- and 16-point leads, respectively.

“Monmouth’s conservative estimate in this year’s New Jersey race was an 8-point win for Murphy, which is still far from the final margin,” Murray wrote. “More than one astute observer of polls has pointed out that the incumbent was consistently polling at either 50% or 51% against a largely unknown challenger. That metric in itself should have been an indication of Murphy’s underlying weakness as an incumbent.”

Murray’s op-ed went on to question the usefulness of political polling when the potential for error is so high.

“If we cannot be certain that these polling misses are anomalies then we have a responsibility to consider whether releasing horse race numbers in close proximity to an election is making a positive or negative contribution to the political discourse,” he wrote.

“Most public pollsters are committed to making sure our profession counters rather than deepening the pervasive cynicism in our society,” Murray continued. “If election polling only serves to feed that cynicism, then it may be time to rethink the value of issuing horse race poll numbers as the electorate prepares to vote.”
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