NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11

[ElectionsGuy]

This is clearly a very accurate poll from a reputable and accurate pollster that should not be questioned.  But Monmouth's poll in Virginia shouldn't be believed at all because some crosstab finding and 2017.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is clearly a very accurate poll from a reputable and accurate pollster that should not be questioned.  But Monmouth's poll in Virginia shouldn't be believed at all because some crosstab finding and 2017.

In all fairness, Monmouth was spot on in NJ in 2017 (final poll: Murphy +14, 53-39; election result: Murphy +14, 56-42) but off in VA (final poll: Northam +2, 47-45; election result: Northam +9, 54-45), but I agree with you that all polls should be treated with caution regardless of whether we like the result or not or find it "credible" or not.

Monmouth has been spot-on in NJ since around 2012 and extremely solid going back to 2005. Their reputation there is on par with Selzer's.

Race	Monmouth	Actual
2005-GOV	D+9	D+10.4
2006-SEN	D+3	D+9.0
2008-PRES	D+21	D+25.5
2008-SEN	D+16	D+14.0
2009-GOV	D+2	R+3.6
2012-PRES	D+15*	D+17.8
2012-SEN	D+15*	D+19.5
2013-SEN	D+10	D+10.9
2013-GOV	R+20	R+22.1
2014-SEN	D+14	D+10.9
2017-GOV	D+14	D+13.5
2018-SEN	D+9	D+11.2
2020-PRES	D+16*	D+15.9
2020-SEN	D+23*	D+16.3

Asterisks are for polls before October 1.

Their only real misses were (a) thinking the 2006 Senate race would be much closer, which I think pretty much everyone in the country did and could have been due to underpolling the Hispanic vote in the only race it ever really mattered in and (b) the 2009 miss, which can't be explained but wasn't really that bad.

Well, so much for that.