NJ (Monmouth): Murphy +11

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Roll Roons:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_102721/

Matty:
Very reasonable

MT Treasurer:
Maybe it will be a little closer than that (+8-9) if Republicans are having a really good night, but an upset is not in the cards here. This one will be more interesting because of the demographic swings.

wbrocks67:
Just for fun, comparing this to the 2017 exits. This is the same thing we're seeing with the VA polls - Males surging towards R compared to 2017. Interested to see if it bares out.

Also it appears Murphy consolidating more Ds this time, while Ciatarelli consolidating less (as of now) than Guadagno did.

MEN
2017: D+15
2021: R+4

WOMEN
2017: D+12
2021: D+25

WHITES
2017: R+8
2021: R+9

BLACKS
2017: D+90
2021: D+77

DEMS
2017: D+87
2021: D+90

REPS
2017: R+85
2021: R+78

INDS
2017: D+4
2021: R+1

Person Man:
A double digit win here and a loss in Virginia probably show that the candidate quality was a huge issue in that race.

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