Predict the final VA-Attorney General margin
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Poll
Question: Predict the final margin between Herring and Miyares
#1
Herring wins by 10+		  
#2
Herring wins by 6-9		  
#3
Herring wins by 3-6		  
#4
Herring wins by 0-3		  
#5
2013 redux (within 0.1%)		  
#6
Miyares wins by 0-3		  
#7
Miyares wins by 3-6		  
#8
Miyares wins by 6-9		  
#9
Miyares wins by 10+		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Predict the final VA-Attorney General margin  (Read 514 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 26, 2021, 09:25:22 PM »
7 day poll.

I predict Herring to win by about 1. I believe this is the most likely statewide race to flip and I believe Herring will be in real trouble if the gubernatorial race is within 2-3.

Herring won by under 1,000 votes in 2013 and underperformed the governor in 2017 as well. Despite polling showing him doing slightly better than McAuliffe, I don't buy it yet.

Keep in mind, this race along with the lieutenant governor race aren't getting as much media attention. There's definitely potential for one or possibly both to turn into sleeper flips.

This is my opinion of course and if I'm wrong, I'll gladly accept I'm wrong and I could plausibly be wrong in both directions. I could easily be wrong in the fact that Miyares does squeak out the win, or I could easily be wrong in that Herring wins by several points and does in fact overperform McAuliffe.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2021, 09:26:21 PM »
Herring by 8 or 9.
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S019
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2021, 09:30:30 PM »
Herring+4-5
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shua
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2021, 10:51:13 PM »
Herring by 2 - 3.  There will be some moderates who vote Youngkin and Sears but prefer a Democrat as AG.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2021, 01:30:36 PM »
Herring by 2.3%
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2021, 05:42:56 PM »
Herring +4.5. Don’t buy that this is the most likely statewide race to flip (I think GOV and LTGOV are both more likely to flip in that order).

If Herring loses, you’re looking at an epic bloodbath.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2021, 06:23:48 PM »
Herring+5.
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Spark
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2021, 08:18:54 PM »
Herring by 2%.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2021, 08:28:45 PM »
Miyares by less than one.

Ayala's going to dramatically outrun both McAuliffe and Herring, and set herself up nicely for 2025.
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JGibson
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2021, 09:25:42 PM »
Herring by 3.8%.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2021, 09:51:21 AM »
Herring +4.7
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2021, 06:34:07 PM »

Updating my prediction to Herring+1.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2021, 01:12:00 PM »
The anti Miyares ads are devastating.  My prediction: He's gonna do pretty bad.  He might even do worse than Sears.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2021, 01:17:44 PM »
Herring by a bit more than McAuliffe, maybe 3-4%.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2021, 01:26:52 PM »
Herring+7
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2021, 02:16:16 PM »

This looks right.
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